LithiaWx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Lol re-read some of your posts from last night.. Not starting an argument with you, but you cross the line nearly everyday. Kind of like the pot calling the kettle black. Thats all I will say because I am sure the mods are about to step in and I have no problem with that. TDIT got it.... I see a difference in what I did last night and what you just did but ok..... Meh, somehow one of my posts got lost... To address the one question you did have for me : I already did admit that today's GFS looks a lot better than the SE ridge it was showing before. I'm not sure what else you are looking for from me there. Also, group think is lame like everyone patting each other on the back about how great a run is. Actual discussion about some of the issues that we would face on that 12Z run can spark positive and substantive discussion. It's not about stirring a pot for the purpose of stirring a pot. My purpose is to provide a contrarian point of view that can be engaging and cause some intelligent back and forth about what the model is showing and why it is or is not a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 As was noted, the OMG, wow, and !!!!! were to indicate the much colder/much stronger +PNA 12Z run vs. prior runs and to try to get something out quickly. These were mirroring my excitement. I can't always make detailed analytical posts. I'm human and I was also very busy. It was an absolutely beautiful run despite not showing big wintry precip. for GA. That isn't important to me right now. The pattern shown was awesome. That's much more important than if unreliable week 2 actually shows a winter storm, which it came fairly close to doing by the way imo. Storms that far out are only for entertainment, regardless. Do people here have a problem with those posts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 The near 1000mb pressures over the Dakotas don't concern you? Nope not worried. With that strong of high pressure I've seen this game before. I would be more worried with suppression at the end of the day with the look the GFS has. The key is to get a cold look first and that run screams cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Do people here have a problem with those posts? Larry, I thoroughly enjoy your detailed statistical posts, and understand being very busy. I just thought those particular ones were better suited for banter, not the pattern thread. To be fair, it's not like it really matters when we are only piling on a page or two a day. :-) I stand with you in sharing the excitement from the 12z GFS, not in what it showed verbatim, but b/c it seemed like a "loaded" pattern that would likely produce for someone. Thanks again for your contributions to the board..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 To be fair, GFS para is pretty good inside 4 days before we enter ECMWF's territory (with GFS having advantage over GFS para at this point). I've been using GFS para as a factor to my WxChallenge forecasts every day and I'm nearly at the top of standing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 You missed a prime Glenn burns moment last week. Go Panthers Oh god, what did I miss? lol. I didn't know you had the displeasure of watching him....amazing isn't he? Panties are going down brother Actually it wouldn't be a bad thing if you guys do win...there is hardly a chance the falcons could ever make a run in the playoffs and I'd rather not extend this miserable season any more. I'd rather not take the chance smith could be brought back. The thought of another year of smitty ball on offense, someone who can't manage a clock to save his life, and a defense that has somehow managed to be worse than previous years is nauseating. Let's face it too, whoever wins is going to be mocked and laughed at the entire time..I have no desire listening to that before they get their ass handed to them in the first round. But hey at least it won't be the ain'ts right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Happy Festivus to my SE Peeps!!! For the rest of us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 We are screwed.... 1991-1992 analog in full effect per the oracle Don S. **** this winter and all the bull**** hype that went with it. I'll never buy into a long range seasonal forecast again. All of the stupid analogs mean very little it seems. Forecasters are still at least a decade away probably much, much more from any type of skill above flipping a coin when it comes to long range forecasting. Count me as a cliff jumper today.... Brick, you can now color me pessimistic about the rest of the season, you have been trying for about month now here's your chance while I'm down. Let's not cancel winter because of yet another LR forecast, though. Toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 It's going to be funny if DT busts again just as he starts talking about all the problems and why we don't get and stay colder than normal. The modeling has done a 180 since he sent out the tweet about all of the issues yesterday. I think he just re-tweeted it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 It's going to be funny if DT busts again just as he starts talking about all the problems and why we don't get and stay colder than normal. The modeling has done a 180 since he sent out the tweet about all of the issues yesterday. I think he just re-tweeted it too.he changes his forecast everyday it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 So, 0z runs tonight goes back into the crapper. Any bets against that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Am I correct in saying that no one really knows what will happen beyond 10 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 So, 0z runs tonight goes back into the crapper. Any bets against that Nope. I for one am done getting pumped about anything until it lands on my doorstep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 he changes his forecast everyday it seems. He's a weather comedian!!! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 So, 0z runs tonight goes back into the crapper. Any bets against that? I'll bet against it. No way after the 12z does this does the 0z get trashed. Bank it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 He's a weather comedian!!! lol Remember when, after hyping up the Christmas/Boxing Day Storm of 2010, he canceled it a day or so before it occurred, then we got blasted. Oops! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 So, 0z runs tonight goes back into the crapper. Any bets against that Yeah, I betcha 10 sleet pellets and raise ya a dozen snow flakes! lol... That the models hold serve tonight and improve some for a winter storm threat possibility.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Remember when, after hyping up the Christmas/Boxing Day Storm of 2010, he canceled it a day or so before it occurred, then we got blasted. Oops! Yep, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Oh god, what did I miss? lol. I didn't know you had the displeasure of watching him....amazing isn't he? Panties are going down brother Actually it wouldn't be a bad thing if you guys do win...there is hardly a chance the falcons could ever make a run in the playoffs and I'd rather not extend this miserable season any more. I'd rather not take the chance smith could be brought back. The thought of another year of smitty ball on offense, someone who can't manage a clock to save his life, and a defense that has somehow managed to be worse than previous years is nauseating. Let's face it too, whoever wins is going to be mocked and laughed at the entire time..I have no desire listening to that before they get their ass handed to them in the first round. But hey at least it won't be the ain'ts right? I don't know I agree with them not competing if they do make the playoffs. They went on the road and handled the Saints and then had a close game at Green Bay. I couldn't believe they got within 6 after the crappy first half they had. I turned off the TV expecting a blow out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I can't find the Chinese Model anymore on WeatherBell. Did they move it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I can't find the Chinese Model anymore on WeatherBell. Did they move it? I asked Ryan... @RyanMaue Dec 21 "temporarily -- upgrading servers. The NCEP issues were priority on Friday." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Snow is showing up on in the LR for some members of the EPS mean for Raleigh...about 13/50...it's been a while, it's a start! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I asked Ryan... @RyanMaue Dec 21 "temporarily -- upgrading servers. The NCEP issues were priority on Friday." Well, damn. I'm going to cancel my subscription if they don't fix this ASAP! I only subscribe for access to the Chinese Model!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Well, damn. I'm going to cancel my subscription if they don't fix this ASAP! I only subscribe for access to the Chinese Model!!! I never look at it. One hour later and you're hungry for another one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I really like how cold is showing up inside 10 days now. That makes me happy. It sure has taken long enough. I also like how there is decent agreement between the Euro and GFS at the moment. Hopefully, we don't start seeing messages about data ingest or something stupid like that. Also hopefully, we'll see consistency tonight and going forward and get this mess inside 3 or 4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Meanwhile in CAD country... ***WTH is this "warm" stuff they're talking about?**** Bevo, I hardly need to post anymore, as we seem to share the same thoughts and opinions on many things. I'll just add my echo to this post. It's been a chilly December so far here in the HKY. My random observations from the past several days' worth of posts: MariettaWx and Metalman continue to enjoy poking holes in the optimists' balloons. Brick continues to be upset by their posts (which is probably their intent). Don't let 'em get to you, Brick. CR stands solidly in the middle of future cold versus future warm, not falling into either the pessimist or optimist camp. Webberweather is back dropping some serious weather knowledge once again, even somewhat challenging the lauded Don Sutherland. Jshetley somehow found some rain in his backyard. I didn't think that was possible. It's a Christmas miracle! Burgertime is actively engaging in PBP once again, which is a great sign for winter weather prospects. Packbacker is cautiously optimistic, not ready to throw in the towel on this season...yet. Buckeye and jburns have had a relatively easy time of it lately with no serious arguments to break up. That will probably change in the near future, because even the SE forum has its spats from time to time. Level heads continue to wait for future rewards and refuse to be swayed too far on the pendulum of emotions with each model run. If it's more than 5 days out, we have no idea on specifics, so it's better to just wait it out. That is all for now. The trends are encouraging. Merry Christmas to all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Tune in tonight at 1030 for another episode of "As the Models Turn" one of the best new dramas out there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Bevo, I hardly need to post anymore, as we seem to share the same thoughts and opinions on many things. I'll just add my echo to this post. It's been a chilly December so far here in the HKY. My random observations from the past several days' worth of posts: MariettaWx and Metalman continue to enjoy poking holes in the optimists' balloons. Brick continues to be upset by their posts (which is probably their intent). Don't let 'em get to you, Brick. CR stands solidly in the middle of future cold versus future warm, not falling into either the pessimist or optimist camp. Webberweather is back dropping some serious weather knowledge once again, even somewhat challenging the lauded Don Sutherland. Jshetley somehow found some rain in his backyard. I didn't think that was possible. It's a Christmas miracle! Burgertime is actively engaging in PBP once again, which is a great sign for winter weather prospects. Packbacker is cautiously optimistic, not ready to throw in the towel on this season...yet. Buckeye and jburns have had a relatively easy time of it lately with no serious arguments to break up. That will probably change in the near future, because even the SE forum has its spats from time to time. Level heads continue to wait for future rewards and refuse to be swayed too far on the pendulum of emotions with each model run. If it's more than 5 days out, we have no idea on specifics, so it's better to just wait it out. That is all for now. The trends are encouraging. Merry Christmas to all!and to all a goodnight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Tune in tonight at 1030 for another episode of "As the Models Turn" one of the best new dramas out there! If they show warmth I'll throw my computer out of my 3rd story window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Bevo, I hardly need to post anymore, as we seem to share the same thoughts and opinions on many things. I'll just add my echo to this post. It's been a chilly December so far here in the HKY. My random observations from the past several days' worth of posts: MariettaWx and Metalman continue to enjoy poking holes in the optimists' balloons. Brick continues to be upset by their posts (which is probably their intent). Don't let 'em get to you, Brick. CR stands solidly in the middle of future cold versus future warm, not falling into either the pessimist or optimist camp. Webberweather is back dropping some serious weather knowledge once again, even somewhat challenging the lauded Don Sutherland. Jshetley somehow found some rain in his backyard. I didn't think that was possible. It's a Christmas miracle! Burgertime is actively engaging in PBP once again, which is a great sign for winter weather prospects. Packbacker is cautiously optimistic, not ready to throw in the towel on this season...yet. Buckeye and jburns have had a relatively easy time of it lately with no serious arguments to break up. That will probably change in the near future, because even the SE forum has its spats from time to time. Level heads continue to wait for future rewards and refuse to be swayed too far on the pendulum of emotions with each model run. If it's more than 5 days out, we have no idea on specifics, so it's better to just wait it out. That is all for now. The trends are encouraging. Merry Christmas to all!Lol very nice! Slow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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