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December Banter


mackerel_sky

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Don is very good and I'd rather have him on my side than not. But he's been banging the drum for a pattern change to cold. My point is, if he ends up wrong about that, then why all the despair about him making a warm pattern post? Could he just as easily be wrong about that too?

My point yesterday was about an imminent change to a stable cold pattern and I thought that was not likely. It wasn't to suggest that a warm rest of the winter was likely. I don't think Don is saying it's likely, only that it is possible. And it, I suppose. But I'm not willing to buy into that yet.

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Ive heard many ole timers in these mtns say a cold november leads to a warm winteri know its a wivestell but i think to maNy people counted ther chickens in november but one good storm can make all the difference the way i see it its game on til mid april.

the bees definitely say this will be a warm winter, but what do they know ? They are just bees, right ? Surely a bunch of stupid bees aren't smarter than these meteorologists. I guess we will find out soon who we should get our future winter forecasts from.
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Jesus, here come all of the Don S. is wrong posts....  this is getting ugly.

I value his opinion and enjoy his posts, but we don't really know who is right or who is wrong at this point.  He is comparing apples and oranges at the moment IMO, in addition to talking about a time period that is still over two weeks away.  A lot can, and probably will change between now and the second full week of January.

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Don is very good and I'd rather have him on my side than not. But he's been banging the drum for a pattern change to cold. My point is, if he ends up wrong about that, then why all the despair about him making a warm pattern post? Could he just as easily be wrong about that too?

My point yesterday was about an imminent change to a stable cold pattern and I thought that was not likely. It wasn't to suggest that a warm rest of the winter was likely. I don't think Don is saying it's likely, only that it is possible. And it, I suppose. But I'm not willing to buy into that yet.

 

Exactly, but Don has probably the best track record out of anyone on this board and let's face it the man is obviously brilliant. Don also isn't known for jumping the shark, the post he made this AM is extremely ominous. 

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Don is very good and I'd rather have him on my side than not. But he's been banging the drum for a pattern change to cold. My point is, if he ends up wrong about that, then why all the despair about him making a warm pattern post? Could he just as easily be wrong about that too?

 

I've gotta go +1 on all of this

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And HM says this..."Suddenly it's El Nino deja vu. MJO progression in Jan and strat progression in jan leading to the classic mid winter response."

 

It's been a roller coaster ride over the past week...expect horrid signals tomorrow, lol

Lol everyone waits for model to model runs like highs and lows. Everyone just needs to show some patience. It seems some are teetering on insanity but hopefully the pattern can reel them back in.

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