Cold Rain Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Just for a moment I was back at school And felt that old familiar pain And as I turned to make my way back home The snow turned into rain. Dan must have lived in the South Please tell me you did NOT just quote Dan Fogelberg!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Ive heard many ole timers in these mtns say a cold november leads to a warm winteri know its a wivestell but i think to maNy people counted ther chickens in november but one good storm can make all the difference the way i see it its game on til mid april. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Well the RPM gives you 36" of rain, so that should help!Wow really. How does it compare to the RAP and THRRR models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Bobbit? ^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Don is very good and I'd rather have him on my side than not. But he's been banging the drum for a pattern change to cold. My point is, if he ends up wrong about that, then why all the despair about him making a warm pattern post? Could he just as easily be wrong about that too? My point yesterday was about an imminent change to a stable cold pattern and I thought that was not likely. It wasn't to suggest that a warm rest of the winter was likely. I don't think Don is saying it's likely, only that it is possible. And it, I suppose. But I'm not willing to buy into that yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Ive heard many ole timers in these mtns say a cold november leads to a warm winteri know its a wivestell but i think to maNy people counted ther chickens in november but one good storm can make all the difference the way i see it its game on til mid april. the bees definitely say this will be a warm winter, but what do they know ? They are just bees, right ? Surely a bunch of stupid bees aren't smarter than these meteorologists. I guess we will find out soon who we should get our future winter forecasts from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Bobbit? ^Been wondering this myself, they sure are alike! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Jesus, here come all of the Don S. is wrong posts.... this is getting ugly. I value his opinion and enjoy his posts, but we don't really know who is right or who is wrong at this point. He is comparing apples and oranges at the moment IMO, in addition to talking about a time period that is still over two weeks away. A lot can, and probably will change between now and the second full week of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Guys clearly if you want winter weather, move to Texas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Don is very good and I'd rather have him on my side than not. But he's been banging the drum for a pattern change to cold. My point is, if he ends up wrong about that, then why all the despair about him making a warm pattern post? Could he just as easily be wrong about that too? My point yesterday was about an imminent change to a stable cold pattern and I thought that was not likely. It wasn't to suggest that a warm rest of the winter was likely. I don't think Don is saying it's likely, only that it is possible. And it, I suppose. But I'm not willing to buy into that yet. Exactly, but Don has probably the best track record out of anyone on this board and let's face it the man is obviously brilliant. Don also isn't known for jumping the shark, the post he made this AM is extremely ominous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Just for a moment I was back at school And felt that old familiar pain And as I turned to make my way back home The snow turned into rain. Dan must have lived in the South Oh, I've seen fire and I've seen rain. (Torch!!!!) I've seen sunny days that I thought would never end. (Not this winter, james) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Don is very good and I'd rather have him on my side than not. But he's been banging the drum for a pattern change to cold. My point is, if he ends up wrong about that, then why all the despair about him making a warm pattern post? Could he just as easily be wrong about that too? I've gotta go +1 on all of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I guess 'OMG' and 'wow' means 12z is good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Meanwhile in CAD country... ***WTH is this "warm" stuff they're talking about?**** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I guess 'OMG' and 'wow' means 12z is good It's kind of weird, lots of ooohhh's and aahhhh's but no snow depicted. We can't even get a fantasy snowstorm right now, that's a pretty big red flag imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Now that everything looks better for January than it did yesterday, I think I will take a 2 month break from this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I guess 'OMG' and 'wow' means 12z is good Don't forget the !!!!!!!!! Larry brings a lot to the table. His last three posts in the discussion thread are not an example of that. Maybe he has been hacked? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I guess 'OMG' and 'wow' means 12z is good Haha I was thinking the same. I hope that's what it means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 It's kind of weird, lots of ooohhh's and aahhhh's but no snow depicted. We can't even get a fantasy snowstorm right now, that's a pretty big red flag imo. lol wrong....and when you go from ugly to beautiful...yea you should ooohh and aahhh...it might be right but goddamn that was pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Haha I was thinking the same. I hope that's what it means. Wait till you see it CR...just wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 It's kind of weird, lots of ooohhh's and aahhhh's but no snow depicted. We can't even get a fantasy snowstorm right now, that's a pretty big red flag imo.I expected this comment from you before you even made it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Wait till you see it CR...just wait. Prolly be about 1:30. My son wanted to go to the toy store, so we're doing that thing right now. He doesn't understand the importance of model watching....yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 lol wrong....and when you go from ugly to beautiful...yea you should ooohh and aahhh...it might be right but goddamn that was pretty. So it did show a snowstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 lol wrong....and when you go from ugly to beautiful...yea you should ooohh and aahhh...it might be right but goddamn that was pretty. Waay to bring the goods sir. Keep up the good work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 So it did show a snowstorm? Yes from 216 - 384 it showed multiple...and there is reason to believe the one at 216 would be a big dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 All we had to do was wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 And HM says this..."Suddenly it's El Nino deja vu. MJO progression in Jan and strat progression in jan leading to the classic mid winter response." It's been a roller coaster ride over the past week...expect horrid signals tomorrow, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 So it did show a snowstorm?For NC. You get like 0.1 of snow. All rain here. Just one run. At least the models have been consistent with Texas getting wintry precipitation.We are making progress! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Temper all this with the fact that just the other day it was showing an ugly solution.....but given what the models showed for days I want to believe the GFS has the right of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 And HM says this..."Suddenly it's El Nino deja vu. MJO progression in Jan and strat progression in jan leading to the classic mid winter response." It's been a roller coaster ride over the past week...expect horrid signals tomorrow, lol Lol everyone waits for model to model runs like highs and lows. Everyone just needs to show some patience. It seems some are teetering on insanity but hopefully the pattern can reel them back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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