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December Banter


mackerel_sky

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at what point do the optimists give in to the mounting evidence of a non-producing pattern?  Weeklies, ensembles and most of the recent OP's all point to problems getting snow in the SE.  I just don't see how people can keep trying to spin this into anything positive.  It's like it would be hard for there to be any more negative indicators than we already have.

 

I don't know.  I'm not a pattern-chaser, so I'm kind of meh about it.  Even in a sub-optimal pattern, we can get enough stuff to align for a storm or two, I think.

 

 James,

  ATL got 2 major ZR's in 2005. That made many there quite content. Also, Feb. of 2007 had two moderate snows adding to 2"+ on the northside. Not bad at all for a period lacking a major SN/IP.

 

Ah, interesting.  Sounds like 2007 was a better winter down there than up here, then.

 

I'm assuming this was one of the February events (judging by the higher amounts in SW NC)?

 

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20070201/

 

accum.20070201.gif

 

2007 was one of the worst winters in recent memory here.

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More importantly, from my point of view, when do people stop trying to control what other people think?  Especially since, opinion has absolutely zero impact on the weather. For that matter, neither do computer models.

 

Isn't that part of a discussion forum trying to get someone else see it your way?  I get that the chances of swaying opinion are near zero but that's what it's all about right?  If we all had the same view and it was one big group think this place would really suck.

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I don't know.  I'm not a pattern-chaser, so I'm kind of meh about it.  Even in a sub-optimal pattern, we can get enough stuff to align for a storm or two, I think.

 

 

Ah, interesting.  Sounds like 2007 was a better winter down there than up here, then.

 

 

2007 was one of the worst winters in recent memory here.

 

Correction: I meant Jan. of 2008, not Feb. of 2007 for the two ATL snows. Sorry!

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at what point do the optimists give in to the mounting evidence of a non-producing pattern?  Weeklies, ensembles and most of the recent OP's all point to problems getting snow in the SE.  I just don't see how people can keep trying to spin this into anything positive.  It's like it would be hard for there to be any more negative indicators than we already have.

 

Meh, heard the same thing last year...then Jan. came around and changed all that. 

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Meh, heard the same thing last year...then Jan. came around and changed all that. 

 

God I hope I'm wrong but it just isn't there right now. It could be in a few weeks but not right now.....  JMO.  I'm punting to 1/10 - 1/15 at this point, can't see things coming together for N. GA before then. You guys up in NC maybe can get something going before then idk.... 

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God I hope I'm wrong but it just isn't there right now. It could be in a few weeks but not right now.....  JMO.  I'm punting to 1/10 - 1/15 at this point, can't see things coming together for N. GA before then. You guys up in NC maybe can get something going before then idk.... 

 

Reading through the Jan 2013 thread is pretty hilarious. It got started on the 20th of December when models looked interesting for Jan 1.....then everyone wanted to punt due to waffling models and a warm December. By Jan 10th models were showing a huge arctic outbreak and the rest was history. 

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God I hope I'm wrong but it just isn't there right now. It could be in a few weeks but not right now.....  JMO.  I'm punting to 1/10 - 1/15 at this point, can't see things coming together for N. GA before then. You guys up in NC maybe can get something going before then idk.... 

 

You actually shed some light as to why the SE forum as a whole seems so disconnected. We all have very different weather from one another. I've been sitting pretty so far with a chilly winter. Wouldn't know any better if I didn't look at models or read internet forums.

 

I would be frustrated if I lived in GA. Or eastern NC. Or Florida. Anywhere else really...

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This is what was posted Jan 9th. 
 

I continue to see no indications from any indices or modeling of a pattern change to something more wintry or different than what we've seen all winter, are on the way. If we're hoping for seasonal conditions with highs in the upper 40s and low 50s, then sure I'm on board. But frozen precipitation and highs in the 30s? I don't see it.

 

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You actually shed some light as to why the SE forum as a whole seems so disconnected. We all have very different weather from one another. I've been sitting pretty so far with a chilly winter. Wouldn't know any better if I didn't look at models or read internet forums.

 

I would be frustrated if I lived in GA. Or eastern NC. Or Florida. Anywhere else really...

 

Exactly the regional disconnect can contribute to frustration at times.  That said it's actually been chilly here recently.  I would much prefer 60's and sunshine in a no snow pattern to this 40's-50's and overcast/foggy/drizzle/rain crap we have had for what seems like two weeks now.  It feels wintery but knowing that snow isn't coming is pretty disturbing.

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You actually shed some light as to why the SE forum as a whole seems so disconnected. We all have very different weather from one another. I've been sitting pretty so far with a chilly winter. Wouldn't know any better if I didn't look at models or read internet forums.

I would be frustrated if I lived in GA. Or eastern NC. Or Florida. Anywhere else really...

Great post sir!

I am in the foothills of NC and no where near being frustrated with winter.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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Exactly the regional disconnect can contribute to frustration at times. That said it's actually been chilly here recently. I would much prefer 60's and sunshine in a no snow pattern to this 40's-50's and overcast/foggy/drizzle/rain crap we have had for what seems like two weeks now. It feels wintery but knowing that snow isn't coming is pretty disturbing.

I don't know about there but its been very warm here at night. Average low is 31, but I can't remember the last time it was that cold. We seem to not have any trouble having lows 10-15 above normal but God forbid we have lows 10-15 below normal ( which would be in the 15-20 degree range ). Really the only reason its been cool in the afternoon is because of clouds.
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JB says the euro has him rattled! lol :sizzle:

 

He is having a rough spell.  Here's another one where he stuck his neck out and the guillotine is falling.  I believe he predicted over 50% coverage for Christmas day. 

 

26.3% of the U.S. covered by snow. This is the lowest snow coverage for this day since Dec 22, 2004 when 18.5% of the U.S. had snow cover.

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He is having a rough spell. Here's another one where he stuck his neck out and the guillotine is falling. I believe he predicted over 50% coverage for Christmas day.

26.3% of the U.S. covered by snow. This is the lowest snow coverage for this day since Dec 22, 2004 when 18.5% of the U.S. had snow cover.

He is not the only one that will bust. Robert, Don, DT, Allan etc.... Anybody need Rock Salt lol I've got plenty. Maybe we can have an ice cream party!!!

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He is having a rough spell. Here's another one where he stuck his neck out and the guillotine is falling. I believe he predicted over 50% coverage for Christmas day.

26.3% of the U.S. covered by snow. This is the lowest snow coverage for this day since Dec 22, 2004 when 18.5% of the U.S. had snow cover.

Yup!

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I don't know about there but its been very warm here at night. Average low is 31, but I can't remember the last time it was that cold. We seem to not have any trouble having lows 10-15 above normal but God forbid we have lows 10-15 below normal ( which would be in the 15-20 degree range ). Really the only reason its been cool in the afternoon is because of clouds.

 

I believe I read today ATL has only had 2 lows of 32 or lower this month...if they do not get another one they will break the record from December of 84 I believe which only had 3.

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He is not the only one that will bust. Robert, Don, DT, Allan etc.... Anybody need Rock Salt lol I've got plenty. Maybe we can have an ice cream party!!!

 

Natural gas speculators just jumped off the cliff.

 

 

 

The backdrop for the move is Thursday's natural gas inventory report, which showed a year-over-year supply surplus for the first time since December 2012. However, it was not until this news was compounded by a mild seven-day forecast for the Northeast that nat gas futures really started to plunge........

 

......On Monday, then, the many traders who had been hoping for another superspike, "are panicking out of the trade" said Bill Baruch, senior market strategist at Chicago-based iiTrader. "This is panic selling right here."
 
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Natural gas speculators just jumped off the cliff.

The backdrop for the move is Thursday's natural gas inventory report, which showed a year-over-year supply surplus for the first time since December 2012. However, it was not until this news was compounded by a mild seven-day forecast for the Northeast that nat gas futures really started to plunge........

......On Monday, then, the many traders who had been hoping for another superspike, "are panicking out of the trade" said Bill Baruch, senior market strategist at Chicago-based iiTrader. "This is panic selling right here."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102289402

DGAZ ftw!

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I can't wait till that big block sets up over Greenland great big tall Western Ridge, ridge over Alaska its going to get cold folks. Surely all those analogues Can't be wrong? Sea surface temperature Analogues says we are in for epic winter I've heard at least a million times this fall. It's got to be true!!!

:cliff:

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