LithiaWx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Long range forecasting is a load of bull****. We are at least a decade or more away from being able to come up with any decent LR seasonal forecasting. JMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Long range forecasting is a load of bull****. We are at least a decade or more away from being able to come up with any decent LR seasonal forecasting. JMO. Yep. Buying into or developing LR winter forecasts is a novelty as far as I'm concerned - but that's not a secret. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 2 Thoughts: 1. My favorite is when the word 'panic' appears in posts. Like if we don't start to see so in so, then I'll start to 'panic' 2. If someone called for a cold Dec, then that will be a fail...but that's all we can call a fail right now. Who knows, maybe the entire winter is above normal, but we can't call fail on Jan-Mar right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 It's 39 and raining. Winter cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I am not wishing for this to happen, just simply reporting what the model is showing. To much wish casting going on here. We really need to have a thread where we people can objectively discuss what is going on and another thread titled "rainbows and puppies" for all the people that want to simply say everything looks great. Funniest post I have seen in a long time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 And now the GFS comes in better. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I think I'm going to become a cold rain weenie. Every winter will be rockin'. Today's rockin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 And now the GFS comes in better. Crazy. The para comes in better, the Op GFS looks terrible. Although we are putting a lot of stock in the Op runs at day 9 which is fairly dumb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 2 Thoughts: 1. My favorite is when the word 'panic' appears in posts. Like if we don't start to see so in so, then I'll start to 'panic' 2. If someone called for a cold Dec, then that will be a fail...but that's all we can call a fail right now. Who knows, maybe the entire winter is above normal, but we can't call fail on Jan-Mar right now. Haha! Love the word panic too. Can't be skeptical without panicking I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Agreed, Feb 2019 will be rocking'! If Feb doesn't work out, we get some of our biggest snows in March. If March doesn't work out, it can snow in April... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Haha! Love the word panic too. Can't be skeptical without panicking I guess. LOL...honestly I have no idea what to think about whats going to happen day 7-10 or after. I still have hope that at some point in Jan we are going to see blocking establish, we are going to get our Nino/+PDO pattern, sometime in Jan into Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Funniest post I have seen in a long time! LOL, I am done posting in the pattern thread unless it's something positive to say. Going to stick with the banter thread for anything that remotely sounds pessimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Wasn't the para gfs being bashed as early as even yesterday because it was totally crazy? I guess when it shows snow/better then the old gfs it's good. Hm Multiple models, even the GGEM that was leading the way is backing off as we get closer to New Years. The trend is there to go away from something very good. Eventually it might be very bad if it keeps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Wasn't the para gfs being bashed as early as even yesterday because it was totally crazy? I guess when it shows snow/better then the old gfs it's good. Hm Multiple models, even the GGEM that was leading the way is backing off as we get closer to New Years. The trend is there to go away from something very good. Eventually it might be very bad if it keeps up. FWIW, from what I've heard, the GFS and the Parallel GFS are basically on par with one another as far as verification scores are concerned (according to dtk). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Wasn't the para gfs being bashed as early as even yesterday because it was totally crazy? I guess when it shows snow/better then the old gfs it's good. Hm Multiple models, even the GGEM that was leading the way is backing off as we get closer to New Years. The trend is there to go away from something very good. Eventually it might be very bad if it keeps up. So, if it changes from good to bad, it's right, but it can;t change back from bad to good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 FWIW, from what I've heard, the GFS and the Parallel GFS are basically on par with one another as far as verification scores are concerned (according to dtk). I'm not sure. I've been ignoring the upgrade for the most part since the delay and all. And Brick, yes they can go back to good. Once again, it's starting to look like day 10+. Eventually something has to give. I dove off a cliff a few days ago, but overall these models are struggling horribly. Look at the Christmas storm.. or the "Santa Bomb". It's STILL different on each model run. I think the 50/50 low from it is probably off the table now. Bob Chill summed it up great last night though. Longer range OP runs are poop generally... add to that even more so with something anomalous about to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Wasn't the para gfs being bashed as early as even yesterday because it was totally crazy? I guess when it shows snow/better then the old gfs it's good. Hm Multiple models, even the GGEM that was leading the way is backing off as we get closer to New Years. The trend is there to go away from something very good. Eventually it might be very bad if it keeps up. What? I don't see anyone really praising it.. Just stating what it says. The GGEM is just now showing New Years Day at hr 240 so I am not sure how it could be backing off or leading the way for that storm since we are just now seeing what the GGEM shows. I bashed the Para yesterday because it has had some wild swings. That doesn't mean I am not going to look at, because at this time most of the models are having wild swings. Everyone here should be used to the fact that when a model shows snow it is going to get more talk... even if it does have a bad track record, because most here love to see it snow. As of the most recent GGEM, GFS, and Para runs, I would say they all look more favorable for cold on New years. If anyone is trying to nail down precip at hr 240 you are playing pin the tail on the donkey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 My last statements were about the overall pattern and cold. Not storm specific. Either way, 12z runs so far are okay. The GEFS seems pretty chilly around 01/01/15. Looking forward to the Euro today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Wasn't the para gfs being bashed as early as even yesterday because it was totally crazy? I guess when it shows snow/better then the old gfs it's good. Hm Multiple models, even the GGEM that was leading the way is backing off as we get closer to New Years. The trend is there to go away from something very good. Eventually it might be very bad if it keeps up. It was, it comes up with some crazy solutions from run to run....but as I said before it has latched on to some that every other model came around to specifically the super bomb which ended up not happening. It was also the first to really latch on to the southern slider when most models were showing an apps runner last weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 It was, it comes up with some crazy solutions from run to run....but as I said before it has latched on to some that every other model came around to specifically the super bomb which ended up not happening. It was also the first to really latch on to the southern slider when most models were showing an apps runner last weekend. Good point. Really hoping they continue to tweak it. I think there is a signal of sorts for the SE around NYE/D about all we could ask for this far out. Hope the ridge goes away on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 And now the GFS comes in better. Crazy. It's not the GFS that is crazy. How about the folks that, even while knowing the model is currently clueless, repeatedly experience wild mood swings on a 6 hour cycle. I have a question. Picture a group of weather weenies diving off of the cliff. Halfway down a model run shows cold and snow. Now the question. Would any of them be able to reach hummingbird rates when they start frantically flapping their arms? Damn funny image isn't it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Another step in the right direction with the Euro. Looks like today is a lot more positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Another step in the right direction with the Euro. Looks like today is a lot more positive. No its not. Da fuq are you looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 No its not. Da fuq are you looking at? Are you even reading the pattern discussion thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 No its not. Da fuq are you looking at? Feel free to join in at the pattern discussion. Let us know your thoughts and why you feel that way. Seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 No its not. Da fuq are you looking at? That energy won't stick in the SW and the ridge won't be as ridiculous as shown. imo model bias ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Feel free to join in at the pattern discussion. Let us know your thoughts and why you feel that way. Seriously. Come on man, the pattern discussion thread has turned into a turd polishing contest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 I just got Euro power back on after losing it in the Euro blizzard a couple days ago. Still digging out. I did finally finish getting the Euro driveway shoveled. Looks like we have another D10 threat at hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Come on man, the pattern discussion thread has turned into a turd polishing contest. Are you and metalic twins? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 22, 2014 Share Posted December 22, 2014 Are you and metalic twins? identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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