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December Banter


mackerel_sky

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Ouch.

 

Even the NC High Country barely dips below freezing through January 01.

 

The only analog is that working out is that if there are large snows in October (This Years Halloween Weekend 4" to 11" and Hurricane Sandy 20"), the winter will be a challenge.

 

Hopefully, the October snow will not be the largest snow of the season as it was back with the Hurricane Sandy snow.

 

Enjoy the blessings of Advent and Christmas and everyone get their mind off the weather and we'll hope the pattern really does evolve into something better.   At this time, I would give it reduced chances over the next 10 days.

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Yeah I'd have to say that the good pattern advertised by the GEFS seems now like it's turning into about an ok 4 day pattern, then it goes back to crap.  Very disappointing.  Not throwing in the towel for winter yet at all, but I think the blockbuster "great" winter is probably off the table.  Solidifies my thoughts that long term forecasting is just a huge waste of time. 

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Yeah I'd have to say that the good pattern advertised by the GEFS seems now like it's turning into about an ok 4 day pattern, then it goes back to crap.  Very disappointing.  Not throwing in the towel for winter yet at all, but I think the blockbuster "great" winter is probably off the table.  Solidifies my thoughts that long term forecasting is just a huge waste of time. 

I'm with you on the long range forecasting. I'm not listening to anyone's long range again. Huge waste of resources and time. Stick to 5 days and under, preferably 72 hours. Climate models = absolute bunk!

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Yeah I'd have to say that the good pattern advertised by the GEFS seems now like it's turning into about an ok 4 day pattern, then it goes back to crap.  Very disappointing.  Not throwing in the towel for winter yet at all, but I think the blockbuster "great" winter is probably off the table.  Solidifies my thoughts that long term forecasting is just a huge waste of time. 

 

 

I'm with you on the long range forecasting. I'm not listening to anyone's long range again. Huge waste of resources and time. Stick to 5 days and under, preferably 72 hours. Climate models = absolute bunk!

 

I think we have to wait and see how this winter ends up. If a switch is thrown in January, and we end up with a lot of snow, then all those mets using the evidence and factors at hand compared with past winters will be proven right. If not, then it will be one of the biggest busts ever when it comes to the long range forecasting for winter. Then everyone would pretty much have to go back and rethink everything they know about what gives us a good winter here. I think if it doesn't change, then there is good argument for saying long range forecasting for winter here is just a wild guess and it is best just to take it one day at a time. 

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Yeah I'd have to say that the good pattern advertised by the GEFS seems now like it's turning into about an ok 4 day pattern, then it goes back to crap. Very disappointing. Not throwing in the towel for winter yet at all, but I think the blockbuster "great" winter is probably off the table. Solidifies my thoughts that long term forecasting is just a huge waste of time.

Blockbuster winter is probably off the table, the end the Euro is worse than terrible. If it's right it will take some time to get back to a workable pattern. If it's right.
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Good for you Nostradamus.

You are an even worse case. You really are pessimistic no matter what.

No I'm not! I have been optimistic with this current rain event about getting 5+ inches,and we are missing everything. I still believe I can get 5 inches. You on the other hand would be disappointed and miserable with rain unless it destroying stuff or sunny or snowing.
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