franklin NCwx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 2, 2014 Author Share Posted December 2, 2014 Is that ground zero for a torch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 People freaking out over what the terrible track record named the GFS is showing for 10-15 days need to realize it is out to lunch 75% of the time past 3 days (and although the Euro is slightly better, it is no great shakes either). This model has sucked, sucks now, and likely will suck in the future so pay attention to it if you must but I have better things to do with my time (oh maybe like rolling around on a bed of barbed wire) that involves less self flagellation. Just remember and keep chanting it folks, IT'S THE GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 I think the GFS is broken! It keeps showing heat in the long range instead of record cold like it normally shows! Hey now... it does show one day getting down to 28 at RAH! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 People freaking out over what the terrible track record named the GFS is showing for 10-15 days need to realize it is out to lunch 75% of the time past 3 days (and although the Euro is slightly better, it is no great shakes either). This model has sucked, sucks now, and likely will suck in the future so pay attention to it if you must but I have better things to do with my time (oh maybe like rolling around on a bed of barbed wire) that involves less self flagellation. Just remember and keep chanting it folks, IT'S THE GFS. I don't necessarily disagree with you, but the Euro isn't showing a better pattern. I'm not talking about you here, but this business about the models sucking past 5 days is fine, but we need to remember that when they're showing snowstorms, raging -NAOs, and -20 850s over the SE. They don't just suck because they show warm (or don't show cold). They either suck past 5 days or they don't...or they only suck in certain situations, which should be pointed out when a claim that they suck is being made. Personally, I think that during pattern transitions, they are going to have much lower skill. And we can probably all agree that their skill is fairly low out in the 7+ day timeframe, decreasing as you go out. But throwing details aside, the general look they are showing out in time is probably not far from correct. Looking at Webber's post in the pattern thread, you can see the similarity to appropriate analogues. That argues for a higher level of confidence that they LR models are not completely out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Haha! I just had a McRib combo the other day. It was awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Haha! Interesting idea. Do we have to provide host families or are they allowed to live on their own? Hmmm... Which subforum would we most want to have visiting hotdogs from? I think I would vote for Central/Western States. Perhaps a visiting professorship program is a better idea... But then we'd have to send you away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Seasonal weather is not so bad is it? I see highs that are pretty much hovering around normal. It's not the end of the world. It seems to match up well with what many of the winter outlooks were touting. Once the pattern becomes more mature towards the end of the month and into January, the winter weather threats should be there. No reason to throw in the towel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 I don't necessarily disagree with you, but the Euro isn't showing a better pattern. I'm not talking about you here, but this business about the models sucking past 5 days is fine, but we need to remember that when they're showing snowstorms, raging -NAOs, and -20 850s over the SE. They don't just suck because they show warm (or don't show cold). They either suck past 5 days or they don't...or they only suck in certain situations, which should be pointed out when a claim that they suck is being made. Personally, I think that during pattern transitions, they are going to have much lower skill. And we can probably all agree that their skill is fairly low out in the 7+ day timeframe, decreasing as you go out. But throwing details aside, the general look they are showing out in time is probably not far from correct. Looking at Webber's post in the pattern thread, you can see the similarity to appropriate analogues. That argues for a higher level of confidence that they LR models are not completely out to lunch. A+++ well said CR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Well well well. It's not cold and below average for the first half of December and many want to give up on Winter. Late December, Jan, Feb with the end of Jan starting super cold in the SE with cold shots through the middle of March. Calm down people! If we get to Jan 14th with no sign of cold, then it's time to jump. Why do some think the models are bad in the longer range if they show warm, and then "leading the way" when it shows cold and snowy farther out? I agree with what was noted above. They either suck past 192 or not per say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Well well well. It's not cold and below average for the first half of December and many want to give up on Winter. Late December, Jan, Feb with the end of Jan starting super cold in the SE with cold shots through the middle of March. Calm down people! If we get to Jan 14th with no sign of cold, then it's time to jump. Why do some think the models are bad in the longer range if they show warm, and then "leading the way" when it shows cold and snowy farther out? I agree with what was noted above. They either suck past 192 or not per say. Weenieism 101, it's relay the most illogical idea you can have. You will notice some of the worst posters go this route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 A+++ well said CR. Thanks...I would still like to see at least a few random fantasy icebox runs though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 But then we'd have to send you away. Oh. Yeah. I didn't consider that. Let's term it a visiting met program, then. Well well well. It's not cold and below average for the first half of December and many want to give up on Winter. Late December, Jan, Feb with the end of Jan starting super cold in the SE with cold shots through the middle of March. Calm down people! If we get to Jan 14th with no sign of cold, then it's time to jump. Why do some think the models are bad in the longer range if they show warm, and then "leading the way" when it shows cold and snowy farther out? I agree with what was noted above. They either suck past 192 or not per say. They do. Which was one reason the mods shut down the crazy December 12 potential storm thread. It's not going to happen. Or, if it does, it's not because the 300+ hour GFS was showing that it might happen. Thus, I also adhere to the policies advocated by CR above. If we see a snowstorm threat materialize inside of 5 days on the GFS, then it's time to start paying attention. Otherwise, it's just for entertainment purposes and not a reason to get overly excited or depressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Haha! I just had a McRib combo the other day. It was awesome! mmmmm - mcrib.... All the regional forums have turned into a disaster, bickering, it's quite funny. Not sure the site is going to last a couple of weeks until things turn around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Weenieism 101, it's relay the most illogical idea you can have. You will notice some of the worst posters go this route. Yeah I cringe when the "the models will catch up" phrase is thrown out. When both the GFS/EURO show crap, crap is probably coming. I have to admit that losing December is a bummer considering the hype about this winter. With that said, December has always been crap here so we're not really losing much. Honestly I kinda kick myself for expecting a better December.....it's December, duh! Also, the analogs and discussion about this being a typical +PDO/Nino December is encouraging....meaning that Jan and Feb could be gold. As long as the switch flips first of January I'm right as rain. Got a Boone trip coming up the first week of January, and I need it SNOWY!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Yeah I cringe when the "the models will catch up" phrase is thrown out. When both the GFS/EURO show crap, crap is probably coming. I have to admit that losing December is a bummer considering the hype about this winter. With that said, December has always been crap here so we're not really losing much. Honestly I kinda kick myself for expecting a better December.....it's December, duh! Also, the analogs and discussion about this being a typical +PDO/Nino December is encouraging....meaning that Jan and Feb could be gold. As long as the switch flips first of January I'm right as rain. Got a Boone trip coming up the first week of January, and I need it SNOWY!! Wait. Is this fait accompli? I missed the funeral announcement somehow. Ladies and gentlemen, we gather around the graveside today, December 2, in order to mourn the passing of the entire month of December (with regards to any wintry weather potential). She was short-lived, and we barely got to know her, but she was quite sweet for those two days. May she rest in peace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Yeah I cringe when the "the models will catch up" phrase is thrown out. When both the GFS/EURO show crap, crap is probably coming. I have to admit that losing December is a bummer considering the hype about this winter. With that said, December has always been crap here so we're not really losing much. Honestly I kinda kick myself for expecting a better December.....it's December, duh! Also, the analogs and discussion about this being a typical +PDO/Nino December is encouraging....meaning that Jan and Feb could be gold. As long as the switch flips first of January I'm right as rain. Got a Boone trip coming up the first week of January, and I need it SNOWY!! Great post, losing December would suck but it's not the end of the world if a flip doesn't happen until late month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 I never count on anything in December. If for some chance I get frozen precip in December I chalk it up as bonus. I know I live in the south and snow in December is rare. Give me a couple of good storms over January and February and life is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 I never count on anything in December. If for some chance I get frozen precip in December I chalk it up as bonus. I know I live in the south and snow in December is rare. Give me a couple of good storms over January and February and life is good. ding, ding, ding!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 The epic December of 2000 I remember quite well. It snowed late November and we had continuous bouts of cold and frozen precip into the end of the month of December , and winter was over after that. Rather punt December than Jan/Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 I never count on anything in December. If for some chance I get frozen precip in December I chalk it up as bonus. I know I live in the south and snow in December is rare. Give me a couple of good storms over January and February and life is good. Yeah... way to much depression over something ( Dec snow/ice) not happening that rarely ever happens anyway. I was always of the impression that the winter forecasts were primarily for Jan/Feb and early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 I never count on anything in December. If for some chance I get frozen precip in December I chalk it up as bonus. I know I live in the south and snow in December is rare. Give me a couple of good storms over January and February and life is good. Yes! I usally view winters the exact same way. The hype and forecasts got the best of me. I promise in the future to be completely apathetic about December weather. Here and now I stand firm! Does looking at model output in December FOR January weather count though? I really, really, want a great January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Now, let us start torching in January and my attitude will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Just hang on a little longer, Mid-Late December on, we'll be busy trying to keep up with storms and precip types.... My winter cancel this morning I was in joke mode! and just for CR Raleigh will do great this winter big bombs coming up the coast... That's when I'll miss out. I need them to start in the gulf and for me to get snow..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 I never count on anything in December. If for some chance I get frozen precip in December I chalk it up as bonus. I know I live in the south and snow in December is rare. Give me a couple of good storms over January and February and life is good. Yeah... way to much depression over something ( Dec snow/ice) not happening that rarely ever happens anyway. I was always of the impression that the winter forecasts were primarily for Jan/Feb and early March. I agree. I only remember two times we even had winter weather here in December, and that was because they were so extreme - the ice storm in 2002 and the Christmas night snow in 2010. January and February are usually the big months for the Raleigh area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Now, let us start torching in January and my attitude will change. Yeah me too!! Come January no sign of cold, I'm canceling winter for sure........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 I never count on anything in December. If for some chance I get frozen precip in December I chalk it up as bonus. I know I live in the south and snow in December is rare. Give me a couple of good storms over January and February and life is good. +1 Now, let us start torching in January end Feb beginning of March and my attitude will change. fyp It never ceases to amaze me how many jump off Lookout's ledge in early December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Just hang on a little longer, Mid-Late December on, we'll be busy trying to keep up with storms and precip types.... My winter cancel this morning I was in joke mode! and just for CR Raleigh will do great this winter big bombs coming up the coast... That's when I'll miss out. I need them to start in the gulf and for me to get snow..... Nice! I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Almost comical. GFS Day 15: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_360_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=360&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141202+12+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Nice! I'll take it! Almost comical. GFS Day 15: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_360_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=360&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141202+12+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Just glanced at the GEFS...things will look better next week in the 11-15 day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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