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December Banter

mackerel_sky

By mackerel_sky,
in Southeastern States

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MichaelJ

MichaelJ

Posted
Posted

People freaking out over what the terrible track record named the GFS is showing for 10-15 days need to realize it is out to lunch 75% of the time past 3 days (and although the Euro is slightly better, it is no great shakes either). This model has sucked, sucks now, and likely will suck in the future so pay attention to it if you must but I have better things to do with my time (oh maybe like rolling around on a bed of barbed wire) that involves less self flagellation. Just remember and keep chanting it folks, IT'S THE GFS.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

People freaking out over what the terrible track record named the GFS is showing for 10-15 days need to realize it is out to lunch 75% of the time past 3 days (and although the Euro is slightly better, it is no great shakes either). This model has sucked, sucks now, and likely will suck in the future so pay attention to it if you must but I have better things to do with my time (oh maybe like rolling around on a bed of barbed wire) that involves less self flagellation. Just remember and keep chanting it folks, IT'S THE GFS.

 

I don't necessarily disagree with you, but the Euro isn't showing a better pattern.

 

I'm not talking about you here, but this business about the models sucking past 5 days is fine, but we need to remember that when they're showing snowstorms, raging -NAOs, and -20 850s over the SE.  They don't just suck because they show warm (or don't show cold).  They either suck past 5 days or they don't...or they only suck in certain situations, which should be pointed out when a claim that they suck is being made.

 

Personally, I think that during pattern transitions, they are going to have much lower skill.  And we can probably all agree that their skill is fairly low out in the 7+ day timeframe, decreasing as you go out.  But throwing details aside, the general look they are showing out in time is probably not far from correct.  Looking at Webber's post in the pattern thread, you can see the similarity to appropriate analogues.  That argues for a higher level of confidence that they LR models are not completely out to lunch.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

Haha!  Interesting idea.  Do we have to provide host families or are they allowed to live on their own?  Hmmm...  Which subforum would we most want to have visiting hotdogs from?  I think I would vote for Central/Western States.

 

Perhaps a visiting professorship program is a better idea...

 

But then we'd have to send you away. :(

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packfan98

packfan98

Posted
Posted

Seasonal weather is not so bad is it?  I see highs that are pretty much hovering around normal.  It's not the end of the world.  It seems to match up well with what many of the winter outlooks were touting.  Once the pattern becomes more mature towards the end of the month and into January, the winter weather threats should be there.  No reason to throw in the towel.

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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

Posted
Posted

I don't necessarily disagree with you, but the Euro isn't showing a better pattern.

 

I'm not talking about you here, but this business about the models sucking past 5 days is fine, but we need to remember that when they're showing snowstorms, raging -NAOs, and -20 850s over the SE.  They don't just suck because they show warm (or don't show cold).  They either suck past 5 days or they don't...or they only suck in certain situations, which should be pointed out when a claim that they suck is being made.

 

Personally, I think that during pattern transitions, they are going to have much lower skill.  And we can probably all agree that their skill is fairly low out in the 7+ day timeframe, decreasing as you go out.  But throwing details aside, the general look they are showing out in time is probably not far from correct.  Looking at Webber's post in the pattern thread, you can see the similarity to appropriate analogues.  That argues for a higher level of confidence that they LR models are not completely out to lunch.

 

A+++ well said CR.

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Shawn

Shawn

Posted
Posted

Well well well.  It's not cold and below average for the first half of December and many want to give up on Winter.

 

Late December, Jan, Feb with the end of Jan starting super cold in the SE with cold shots through the middle of March.

 

Calm down people!  If we get to Jan 14th with no sign of cold, then it's time to jump.

 

Why do some think the models are bad in the longer range if they show warm, and then "leading the way" when it shows cold and snowy farther out?  I agree with what was noted above.  They either suck past 192 or not per say.

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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

Posted
Posted

Well well well.  It's not cold and below average for the first half of December and many want to give up on Winter.

 

Late December, Jan, Feb with the end of Jan starting super cold in the SE with cold shots through the middle of March.

 

Calm down people!  If we get to Jan 14th with no sign of cold, then it's time to jump.

 

Why do some think the models are bad in the longer range if they show warm, and then "leading the way" when it shows cold and snowy farther out?  I agree with what was noted above.  They either suck past 192 or not per say.

 

Weenieism 101, it's relay the most illogical idea you can have.  You will notice some of the worst posters go this route.

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calculus1

calculus1

Posted
Posted

But then we'd have to send you away. :(

 

Oh. Yeah.  I didn't consider that.

 

Let's term it a visiting met program, then.

 

Well well well.  It's not cold and below average for the first half of December and many want to give up on Winter.

 

Late December, Jan, Feb with the end of Jan starting super cold in the SE with cold shots through the middle of March.

 

Calm down people!  If we get to Jan 14th with no sign of cold, then it's time to jump.

 

Why do some think the models are bad in the longer range if they show warm, and then "leading the way" when it shows cold and snowy farther out?  I agree with what was noted above.  They either suck past 192 or not per say.

 

They do.  Which was one reason the mods shut down the crazy December 12 potential storm thread.  It's not going to happen.  Or, if it does, it's not because the 300+ hour GFS was showing that it might happen.

 

Thus, I also adhere to the policies advocated by CR above.  If we see a snowstorm threat materialize inside of 5 days on the GFS, then it's time to start paying attention.  Otherwise, it's just for entertainment purposes and not a reason to get overly excited or depressed.

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SnowNiner

SnowNiner

Posted
Posted

Weenieism 101, it's relay the most illogical idea you can have.  You will notice some of the worst posters go this route.

 

Yeah I cringe when the "the models will catch up" phrase is thrown out.  When both the GFS/EURO show crap, crap is probably coming. 

 

I have to admit that losing December is a bummer considering the hype about this winter. With that said, December has always been crap here so we're not really losing much. Honestly I kinda kick myself for expecting a better December.....it's December, duh! Also, the analogs and discussion about this being a typical +PDO/Nino December is encouraging....meaning that Jan and Feb could be gold.   

 

As long as the switch flips first of January I'm right as rain.  Got a Boone trip coming up the first week of January, and I need it SNOWY!!

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calculus1

calculus1

Posted
Posted

Yeah I cringe when the "the models will catch up" phrase is thrown out.  When both the GFS/EURO show crap, crap is probably coming. 

 

I have to admit that losing December is a bummer considering the hype about this winter. With that said, December has always been crap here so we're not really losing much. Honestly I kinda kick myself for expecting a better December.....it's December, duh! Also, the analogs and discussion about this being a typical +PDO/Nino December is encouraging....meaning that Jan and Feb could be gold.   

 

As long as the switch flips first of January I'm right as rain.  Got a Boone trip coming up the first week of January, and I need it SNOWY!!

 

Wait.  Is this fait accompli?  I missed the funeral announcement somehow.

 

Ladies and gentlemen, we gather around the graveside today, December 2, in order to mourn the passing of the entire month of December (with regards to any wintry weather potential).  She was short-lived, and we barely got to know her, but she was quite sweet for those two days.  May she rest in peace.

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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

Posted
Posted

Yeah I cringe when the "the models will catch up" phrase is thrown out.  When both the GFS/EURO show crap, crap is probably coming. 

 

I have to admit that losing December is a bummer considering the hype about this winter. With that said, December has always been crap here so we're not really losing much. Honestly I kinda kick myself for expecting a better December.....it's December, duh! Also, the analogs and discussion about this being a typical +PDO/Nino December is encouraging....meaning that Jan and Feb could be gold.   

 

As long as the switch flips first of January I'm right as rain.  Got a Boone trip coming up the first week of January, and I need it SNOWY!!

 

Great post, losing December would suck but it's not the end of the world if a flip doesn't happen until late month.

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rduwx

rduwx

Posted
Posted

I never count on anything in December.  If for some chance I get frozen precip in December I chalk it up as bonus.  I know I live in the south and snow in December is rare.  Give me a couple of good storms over January and February and life is good.

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frazdaddy

frazdaddy

Posted
Posted

I never count on anything in December.  If for some chance I get frozen precip in December I chalk it up as bonus.  I know I live in the south and snow in December is rare.  Give me a couple of good storms over January and February and life is good.

Yeah... way to much depression over something ( Dec snow/ice) not happening that rarely ever happens anyway. I was always of the impression that the winter forecasts were primarily for Jan/Feb and early March.

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SnowNiner

SnowNiner

Posted
Posted

I never count on anything in December.  If for some chance I get frozen precip in December I chalk it up as bonus.  I know I live in the south and snow in December is rare.  Give me a couple of good storms over January and February and life is good.

 

Yes! I usally view winters the exact same way.  The hype and forecasts got the best of me.  I promise in the future to be completely apathetic about December weather.  Here and now I stand firm!

 

Does looking at model output in December FOR January weather count though?  I really, really, want a great January. 

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BIG FROSTY

BIG FROSTY

Posted
Posted

Just hang on a little longer, Mid-Late December on, we'll be busy trying to keep up with storms and precip types....  My winter cancel this morning I was in joke mode!  :popcorn:  :snowing:   and just for CR :santa:  Raleigh will do great this winter big bombs coming up the coast... That's when I'll miss out. I need them to start in the gulf and for me to get snow.....

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

I never count on anything in December.  If for some chance I get frozen precip in December I chalk it up as bonus.  I know I live in the south and snow in December is rare.  Give me a couple of good storms over January and February and life is good.

 

 

Yeah... way to much depression over something ( Dec snow/ice) not happening that rarely ever happens anyway. I was always of the impression that the winter forecasts were primarily for Jan/Feb and early March.

 

I agree. I only remember two times we even had winter weather here in December, and that was because they were so extreme - the ice storm in 2002 and the Christmas night snow in 2010. January and February are usually the big months for the Raleigh area. 

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buckeyefan1

buckeyefan1

Posted
Posted

I never count on anything in December.  If for some chance I get frozen precip in December I chalk it up as bonus.  I know I live in the south and snow in December is rare.  Give me a couple of good storms over January and February and life is good.

+1  :wub: 

 

Now, let us start torching in January end Feb beginning of March and my attitude will change. :thumbsup:

fyp   :P    

 

It never ceases to amaze me how many jump off Lookout's ledge in early December  :lol:   

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

Just hang on a little longer, Mid-Late December on, we'll be busy trying to keep up with storms and precip types....  My winter cancel this morning I was in joke mode!  :popcorn:  :snowing:   and just for CR :santa:  Raleigh will do great this winter big bombs coming up the coast... That's when I'll miss out. I need them to start in the gulf and for me to get snow.....

 

Nice!  I'll take it! :snowman:

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

Almost comical.

 

GFS Day 15:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_360_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=360&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20141202+12+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

Nice!  I'll take it! :snowman:

 

 

 

Just glanced at the GEFS...things will look better next week in the 11-15 day period.

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