jburns Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Ouch. Yes I post in both, but I associate myself more with the SE crew. I'm closer to NC than DC. I prefer to be here because it's not focused on the 50mi radius around DC! I love the roanoke area. As you probably know, I taught in Floyd County, VA, many years ago. My parents also retired to Bedford from NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 The SE as a whole on today's model runs: Calm down boys (and gals), when Santa bomb is plowing into the lakes at sub 980mb or so I'm thinking we're going to have unstable solutions everywhere, on every OP, every ensemble, every map. That's what I think is happening right now. Maybe that's whats messing with the AO solutions, we won't know until the pattern change comes and things get settled. It's 12/20, we've got a ways to go especially for modeling to get things figured out. Don't forget the seasonal outlooks we've had from just about every seasonal model we can look at (including the beijing climate center model for heavens sake)...That's my halftime talk. Go Wolfpack! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Just look at the 18z GFS. Where exactly does it go boom? I see all rain for the SE on the NY storm with 2m temps well above freezing. Also it still way out in fantasy land. Let's just keep moving the timeframe backwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Really Brick? You got mad at me for saying this the other day, now you are saying it? I was looking forward for something between Christmas and New Years. Now folks are saying maybe between 12/30 and 1/5. I know it is only 5 days, but I hope we don't start pushing things back every week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I love the roanoke area. As you probably know, I taught in Floyd County, VA, many years ago. My parents also retired to Bedford from NJ. Floyd County is very nice. I love the town of Floyd; It makes for a great day trip from Roanoke. Usually have to stop at the various shops in Floyd on the way to Mabry Mill too. I'm quite familiar with Bedford too and I spent a lot of time at the lake there when I was younger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Just look at the 18z GFS. Where exactly does it go boom? I see all rain for the SE on the NY storm with 2m temps well above freezing. Also it still way out in fantasy land. Let's just keep moving the timeframe backwards. I'll gladly take that look at 264. Cold air, High over the lakes and moisture incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Just look at the 18z GFS. Where exactly does it go boom? I see all rain for the SE on the NY storm with 2m temps well above freezing. Also it still way out in fantasy land. Let's just keep moving the timeframe backwards. At least I try to remain positive. You are negative no matter what. What a hard way to go through life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 You'll never be disappointed as a pessimist or a realist in life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I'll gladly take that look at 264. Cold air, High over the lakes and moisture incoming.Sorry. I was looking at the Para GFS I believe. I see what you are talking about now.I didn't know they replaced the GFS with the Para GFS on the NOAA website. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 You'll never be disappointed as a pessimist or a realist in life. No, but you will be miserable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Darn. Ya guys found me out. Yeah... I'm pretty excited. The chief drove me around on my interview last week and there was still snow on the northern side of rocks on top of the Blue Ridge where Skyline & Blue Ridge Parkway meet up. I'm looking forward to the forecasting challenge and the substantial increase in climatological snow! Let's see how long it takes them to throw this Florida boy out in the snow. haha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 This is what burger was talking about. Congrats NC,Mexico,and Texas! www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS/2014122018/USA_SNODI_sfc_288.gif Can't hotlink from there ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 This has got to be one of the driest December's on record in Atlanta through December 20th. 1/2" of rain so far in Atlanta, which is about 2" below normal for the month. Is this extreme dryness typical during el ninos in the month of December ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Darn. Ya guys found me out. Yeah... I'm pretty excited. The chief drove me around on my interview last week and there was still snow on the northern side of rocks on top of the Blue Ridge where Skyline & Blue Ridge Parkway meet up. I'm looking forward to the forecasting challenge and the substantial increase in climatological snow! Let's see how long it takes them to throw this Florida boy out in the snow. haha! You're going to LOVE Blue Ridge Parkway, especially when fall comes around next year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Just look at the 18z GFS. Where exactly does it go boom? I see all rain for the SE on the NY storm with 2m temps well above freezing. Also it still way out in fantasy land. Let's just keep moving the timeframe backwards. This whole post is confusing...you mention 2m temps in the LR then you say it's also in fantasy land? I don't get it...why are you looking at 2m temps this far out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 This whole post is confusing...you mention 2m temps in the LR then you say it's also in fantasy land? I don't get it...why are you looking at 2m temps this far out?First off, I said I was looking at the wrong model. Second, why are you asking me why I am looking at the temps this far out, but you don't question the folks posting 384/240 hour model runs every day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Any seasonal forecast that had a cold December is going to end up with no better than a B- grade for the winter. Just sayin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Any seasonal forecast that had a cold December is going to end up with no better than a B- grade for the winter. Just sayin'.not too many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Can't hotlink from there ...My bad. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2014/12/20/18/GFS_3_2014122018_F288_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png Cold rain, why don't you do your model analysis anymore where you draw all over the model runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 First off, I said I was looking at the wrong model. Second, why are you asking me why I am looking at the temps this far out, but you don't question the folks posting 384/240 hour model runs every day? I didn't see that post that you were looking at the wrong model, my bad. To the second part, IMO it's because 2m temps will fluctuate like NUTS compared to an 850mb look...it just baffles me if you look at ground temps far out instead of an overall picture, like an 850mb or 500mb look. We don't know exactly what 2m temps will be 2 or 3 days from now but we have a general idea on where the 850 line will be. I asked why you cared to look at them that was my question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I didn't see that post that you were looking at the wrong model, my bad. To the second part, IMO it's because 2m temps will fluctuate like NUTS compared to an 850mb look...it just baffles me if you look at ground temps far out instead of an overall picture, like an 850mb or 500mb look. We don't know exactly what 2m temps will be 2 or 3 days from now but we have a general idea on where the 850 line will be. I asked why you cared to look at them that was my question. I was seeing if 2m temps were cold enough to support frozen precipitation down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 My bad. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2014/12/20/18/GFS_3_2014122018_F288_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png Cold rain why don't you do your model analysis anymore where you draw all over the model runs anymore? I don't like analyzing warm and boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 not too many. I went -1 for Raleigh. I'm still in the game. I wouldn't call that cold though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Snow This morning! IMG_0558.MOV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 21, 2014 Author Share Posted December 21, 2014 Seems like mostly positive runs on the models last night! Looks like cold is only 6-8 days way now. Good times ahead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 In the short term, 06z makes three GFS runs in a row where I'm in the dry slot for Wednesdays rain. It's getting seriously dry around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Let's just keep in dry in Pigeon Forge on Tuesday so we can get our last trip to Dollywood in before they close for winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 21, 2014 Author Share Posted December 21, 2014 This morning in the garden, winter cancel! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 You guys must live in a heat island. That's crazy!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 You guys must live in a heat island. That's crazy!! He's not much farther south than me. We haven't been warm enough for blooms. It's weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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