franklin NCwx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Brick is already in the early stages of panic mode. I love it. How long does it usually take for everyone to throw in the towel? well since tomorrow is the winter solstice, awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 I should take a break from watching the models until Christmas and our White New Year's is in range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Brick is already in the early stages of panic mode. I love it. How long does it usually take for everyone to throw in the towel? I am? I am just impatient. I know I will be bored to death after Christmas if there aren't any snow threats to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 I honestly don't know what changed today from yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 And just like that the GFS brings the good stuff for 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Our New Year's resolution should be no models until Valentine's Day. Imagine the excitement! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Maybe we can see some accumulation maps if we actually get inside 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 And just like that the GFS brings the good stuff for 2015. ...and the 0z shall taketh away! Is this the worse model performance for pattern recognition and/or potential events Day 7+ ever? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 ...and the 0z shall taketh away! Is this the worse model performance for pattern recognition and/or potential events Day 7+ ever? We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 20, 2014 Author Share Posted December 20, 2014 WxSouth said yesterday things are still on track and the Christmas storm is the beginning of the pattern change.JB says that up until the day it's 70 and sunny , when he calls for snow ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 When there's a will, there's a way. Be funny with a nino and +PDO to have trough in the west. But that's what the Euro shows day 13+. Worst case the trough is in the central part of the country and we get a bunch of apps runners. Kind of what the GGEM shows. Until this gets inside day 10, meaning where the trough establishes, it's going to bounce back and forth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 JB says that up until the day it's 70 and sunny , when he calls for snow ! Painful watching his updates, he was talking today about how there is always a pull back. The whole month of Dec is a pull back. I would have never though the east coast would be essentially skunked in Dec, but that's what it's looking like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Be funny with a nino and +PDO to have trough in the west. But that's what the Euro shows day 13+. Worst case the trough is in the central part of the country and we get a bunch of apps runners. Kind of what the GGEM shows. Until this gets inside day 10, meaning where the trough establishes, it's going to bounce back and forth.what happened to the cutter after Christmas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 what happened to the cutter after Christmas? On the EPS, there is obviously some spread, there is a cluster up in the OH-V and a cluster down in south Tx. This is for nye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Still don't believe the euro and its wanting to dump in the west not with the trough east of Hawaii and that in the SW will kick pretty fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Oh no, not the MA?? I'm going to guess Roanoke/Blacksburg area? Getting warmer. A little more northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Model chaos, but probably should stop looking at ensembles at days 13-15. If you look at days 11-12 on the EPS, it ain't bad. Burger likes a NYE storm, just maybe... Comparing the 18z GEFS v/s the 12z Euro for NYE. Both agree on the nice eastern trough but the blocking...well is a slight difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 Kind of suggests where we are: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0a-kEKSEg-0#t=95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 20, 2014 Share Posted December 20, 2014 The 18z GEFS is very cold day 10 on, coldest I have seen yet. Pretty much every panel looks like this... Edit: Also, seems very active day 10+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 well since tomorrow is the winter solstice, awhile. Yep. I honestly don't know what changed today from yesterday? Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 The 18z GEFS is very cold day 10 on, coldest I have seen yet. Pretty much every panel looks like this... Edit: Also, seems very active day 10+. Pac, I may be looking at the wrong thing (and if I am, please nicely correct me) - but doesn't the GEFS (and other recent model runs) look to go somewhat zonal after day 10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Pac, I may be looking at the wrong thing (and if I am, please nicely correct me) - but doesn't the GEFS (and other recent model runs) look to go somewhat zonal after day 10? not the ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Pac, I may be looking at the wrong thing (and if I am, please nicely correct me) - but doesn't the GEFS (and other recent model runs) look to go somewhat zonal after day 10? Not zonal, the cold air does lift north, we still have a -EPO and east coast trough throughout the run. The cold air only retreats days 14+ which is a long ways out. But with the -EPO and east coast trough we won't warm up and easily flip cold again if the -AO goes negative. This is obviously a long ways out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Getting warmer. A little more northeast. Enjoy Charlottesville. Seems like a nice area/climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Enjoy Roanoke or Charlottesville. Seems like a nice area/climate.sounds like he is in the mid atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Getting warmer. A little more northeast. Charlottesville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 You'll like the area up this way, CandymanColumbusGA. A lot more snow than where you are now and lots of outdoor activities. I still refuse to completely associate myself with the MA though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 You'll like the area up this way, CandymanColumbusGA. A lot more snow than where you are now and lots of outdoor activities. I still refuse to completely associate myself with the MA though! I see right through you supposed loyalty. It's a lot more fun being the person in a forum who gets the most snow, than the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 I see right through you supposed loyalty. It's a lot more fun being the person in a forum who gets the most snow, than the other way around. Ouch. Yes I post in both, but I associate myself more with the SE crew. I'm closer to NC than DC. I prefer to be here because it's not focused on the 50mi radius around DC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 21, 2014 Share Posted December 21, 2014 Ouch. Yes I post in both, but I associate myself more with the SE crew. I'm closer to NC than DC. I prefer to be here because it's not focused on the 50mi radius around DC! Interestingly, I feel like we don't include you guys in southern Virginia enough on here sometimes. Maybe we, on SE subforum, should work harder to include y'all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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