Cold Rain Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 like I've said before, Blame the November cold. It got everyone's expectations to unrealistic levels I almost wish the November cold never happened. I'll take cold anytime I can get it. Did October end up below? I think it did, slightly, but I'm not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 It took JB about 5 seconds to post about the weeklies. He posted 3 day snippets from the 18th on to the 31st. Showing the blocking that develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 It took JB about 5 seconds to post about the weeklies. He posted 3 day snippets from the 18th on to the 31st. Showing the blocking that develops.the cmc ensembles look pretty good too. They retro the goa trough back into the Aleutians. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 We should seriously start a thread specifically dedicated to worrying about what is going to screw up our winter. That way we can track the assault of winter on various fronts like: strengthening strat PVs, rising solar flux, basin-wide Niño, cooling of water off the Pacific coast, the anchoring of the GOA low, the resistance of the MJO to enter Phases 7-1, etc....so that we can plot winter's eventual and inevitable demise. Can you imagine is we get a +AO this winter. Would completely undermine the whole SCE/SAI theory. I don't think it will happen, just food for thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Can you imagine is we get a +AO this winter. Would completely undermine the whole SCE/SAI theory. I don't think it will happen, just food for thought. Yeah, I don't think it will either. But if it does, I probably won't care very much about winter forecasts next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 the cmc ensembles look pretty good too. They retro the goa trough back into the Aleutians. The GEFS has been stubborn with that feature. Hopefully it starts to change in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 like I've said before, Blame the November cold. It got everyone's my expectations to unrealistic levels I almost wish the November cold never happened. I'm with CR, I'll take cold weather whenever I can get it. No matter the month or season. Oh, and I fixed your post. It's a little dangerous to draw sweeping conclusions about the entire population based on a single data point of information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Yeah, I don't think it will either. But if it does, I probably won't care very much about winter forecasts next year. Good point. I'm firmly in the camp holding to models being pretty much useless beyond 5+ days, so winter forecasts are inherently quite difficult to nail down with lots of room for error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 It took JB about 5 seconds to post about the weeklies. He posted 3 day snippets from the 18th on to the 31st. Showing the blocking that develops. The goods are always 3+ weeks away... But I'm a believer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Good point. I'm firmly in the camp holding to models being pretty much useless beyond 5+ days, so winter forecasts are inherently quite difficult to nail down with lots of room for error. Come on, Calc. You know you're expecting 20"+ of snow this year just like me. All-in with the 1986-1987 analog. There's no turning back now. December to Remember. Rockin' January. Fab February. Marvelous March. Amazing April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 like I've said before, Blame the November cold. It got everyone's expectations to unrealistic levels I almost wish the November cold never happened. Did it? Because I could have sworn I read a lot of talk/discussions of December being warm to start off WEEKS ago. The only person who must of had unrealistic expectations about December being wall to wall cold was you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Did it? Because I could have sworn I read a lot of talk/discussions of December being warm to start off WEEKS ago. The only person who must of had unrealistic expectations about December being wall to wall cold was you. I never expected wall to wall cold in December,but I didn't expect that the warmth would last as long as many are now saying it might. And I certainly wasn't expecting wall to wall warmth in December, which seems more possible now than it did a few weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 2, 2014 Author Share Posted December 2, 2014 Come on, Calc. You know you're expecting 20"+ of snow this year just like me. All-in with the 1986-1987 analog. There's no turning back now. December to Remember. Rockin' January. Fab February. Marvelous March. Amazing April. It's jammin January , duh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Come on, Calc. You know you're expecting 20"+ of snow this year just like me. All-in with the 1986-1987 analog. There's no turning back now. December to Remember. Rockin' January. Fab February. Marvelous March. Amazing April. Oh, very much so. I would expect no less. But I expect that every year, no matter what the long-range forecasts say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 I never expected wall to wall cold in December,but I didn't expect that the warmth would last as long as many are now saying it might. And I certainly wasn't expecting wall to wall warmth in December, which seems more possible now than it did a few weeks ago. I won't say all, but I think many expected December to be a wild card month. It could go either way when all is said and done. If December ends up warm overall, it won't be a big loss. It's not like December is a very snowy month around here. Outside of 2010, I can't remember a December in recent years that was snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 2, 2014 Author Share Posted December 2, 2014 Torchy! Avg high 57, lolzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 I won't say all, but I think many expected December to be a wild card month. It could go either way when all is said and done. If December ends up warm overall, it won't be a big loss. It's not like December is a very snowy month around here. Outside of 2010, I can't remember a December in recent years that was snowy. December 2000 was pretty snowy and so was December 1997, but then again those weren't very recent. December 2001 was almost snowy, had that January 2002 storm occurred a couple of days earlier lol ( although we were tracking that snow in December so maybe that counts). There was also an ice event in December 2002, or maybe that was the one that ended up busting. I do remember having flurries on Christmas Day in 2003. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 I mean...I get it. Sometimes people just need to rant and I'm okay with that. What I don't get is people's sudden amnesia when it comes to December. I don't remember a single December without some days in the 70's. I'll admit that I don't really know the intricacies of GA weather, so maybe it really does feel like hell. Either way, there's nothing implying a warm winter. Nothing. Everything in Ga. is normal, and doing fine. No torch, no end to winter, no nothing but normal Dec. like weather. Scary stuff to younger people, just looks normal to old people. It's all a matter of perspective Probably won't snow this winter, but then it probably won't snow most winters, lol. But it might...won't be because of, or in spite of it being 80 on Xmas day, or in the 30's, and I've seen both a few times. The week after Xmas is when the ball starts rolling around here. CR's Xmas snow had never happened before...and that's normal Dec. weather In fact December is the official US Department of Inclement Weather's Not Happening Month. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Everything in Ga. is normal, and doing fine. No torch, no end to winter, no nothing but normal Dec. like weather. Scary stuff to younger people, just looks normal to old people. It's all a matter of perspective Probably won't snow this winter, but then it probably won't snow most winters, lol. But it might...won't be because of, or in spite of it being 80 on Xmas day, or in the 30's, and I've seen both a few times. The week after Xmas is when the ball starts rolling around here. CR's Xmas snow had never happened before...and that's normal Dec. weather In fact December is the official US Department of Inclement Weather's Not Happening Month. T Tony, you are the best. I absolutely love your posts. You always have a way of saying things that makes me feel a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 The banter is strong folks... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 GFS and its ensembles look like crap on 06z. At 240 hours,it's torch city for most of the US and no end in sight. If this is the pattern, the ridge out west will set up too far east and it's game over for all of the midwest and points east except for maybe NE or Maine. Euro mainly agrees, too. This is very bad. Very, very bad. No cold air on this side of the northern hemisphere... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 winter cancel! she was cold while she lasted in Nov..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 GFS and its ensembles look like crap on 06z. At 240 hours,it's torch city for most of the US and no end in sight. If this is the pattern, the ridge out west will set up too far east and it's game over for all of the midwest and points east except for maybe NE or Maine. Euro mainly agrees, too. This is very bad. Very, very bad. No cold air on this side of the northern hemisphere... I'm optimistic for this winter, but I agree that both the 0z and 6z runs looked baaaaaad. But it is December 2 so not too worried for January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Maybe we could launch a hotdog exchange program with other forums this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Maybe we could launch a hotdog exchange program with other forums this winter. Haha! Interesting idea. Do we have to provide host families or are they allowed to live on their own? Hmmm... Which subforum would we most want to have visiting hotdogs from? I think I would vote for Central/Western States. Perhaps a visiting professorship program is a better idea... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 2, 2014 Author Share Posted December 2, 2014 I think the GFS is broken! It keeps showing heat in the long range instead of record cold like it normally shows! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 So just for giggles I went back and reread last years Dec banter thread....big deja vu except we had NCCATAWBA for entertaimment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PisgahNCWeather Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Tony, you are the best. I absolutely love your posts. You always have a way of saying things that makes me feel a little better. Yes it makes me feel better also. Wait I just threw up after reading that. Ok, now I feel better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 More what a failure this winter is so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.