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December Banter


mackerel_sky

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Someone remind me....what are we arguing about?

 

1)  Winter is cancelled

2)  Models rush things in the LR

3)  GEFS is better than EPS at 11-15 day

4)  We are bored out of our minds

5)  All the relevant analogs have pointed to what we saw/see in Nov/Dec and point to a rockin Jan/Feb

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Someone remind me....what are we arguing about?

 

1)  Winter is cancelled

2)  Models rush things in the LR

3)  GEFS is better than EPS at 11-15 day

4)  We are bored out of our minds

5)  All the relevant analogs have pointed to what we saw/see in Nov/Dec and point to a rockin Jan/Feb

Number 4. Definitely number 4.

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Someone remind me....what are we arguing about?

 

1)  Winter is cancelled

2)  Models rush things in the LR

3)  GEFS is better than EPS at 11-15 day

4)  We are bored out of our minds

5)  All the relevant analogs have pointed to what we saw/see in Nov/Dec and point to a rockin Jan/Feb

 

Probably number 2 and 5. Definitely number 4. I am bored like that every day at work. 

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If they all show a deep freezer for the 12z run, I'm still going to feel the same way if it's 240 hours out. Now when we get into the <192 hours out, it's a different story. Have you guys not noticed we aren't making any progress if the pattern change being showed is always at 384 or 240?

Btw, what if all the models starting showing warm at 12z?

 

True, I get what you're saying here and it makes sense to be skeptical, I'm not disputing that. However, I would imagine there have times, not just during the Winter season, but any season of the year where a significant pattern change was expected to occur exactly around a certain date/holiday, only to either be delayed or not materialize at all. My point is, it appears the pattern change is going to be a bit slower than originally thought. Imo, I still think there's more good that outweighs the bad in favor of a colder pattern change, but again that's jmo which doesn't mean crap when it comes to what the overall result will be.

 

Also if all the model guidance at 12z advertised warmth in the LR, I would be saying, "Oh, it's possible it could be warmer weather coming instead of an arctic plunge, that's something to keep in mind once we get closer to that time period." If it verifies, it is what it is. If it doesn't, it's still ok. I'm usually cautiously optimistic every winter because I know I live in a place where up north they could get one clipper to blow through to match/exceed my overall snowfall average so my expectations is always set VERY LOW going into Winter. Whether it's a cold or warm winter overall, it's just like hurricane season, it only takes one storm to make it a memorable winter. That's how it was during the 2008-09 Winter. If it wasn't for the 4 inches I got on March 1, 2009, that would have been one of the sh*ttiest winters ever. lol 

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A crack in the armor?

 

But that is exactly what people are worried about happening for the rest of winter. Looks like the system this weekend might not be a big deal. And then the one for Christmas might not, either. I was hoping these were going to be the start of the pattern change to more winter weather. Now it doesn't seem so sure. I really hope this doesn't end up being a winter where everything that could go wrong does. It would be one of the biggest busts and head-scratchers ever if it doesn't end up being big after all the consensus from mets saying this winter will be a good one based on the factors we have going into it. I just don't want to get into the game of pushing the pattern flip back over and over again.
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And another:

 

Nothing to see here so far. Most mets said at the beginning of December that the pattern really would not get good for winter until after Christmas. I think the shot we had in November got expectations high. Plus, the consensus from all the mets saying this winter should be a big one. So many said we should have above average to much above average snow. It's still early, but I think some of the excitement is turning into worry. Just a couple of days ago everyone was hyped about the period between Christmas and New Year's, and now that doesn't appear to be the case. I just hate if everything keeps getting pushed back.

Hopefully things will start rocking in January and go through February.
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