December Banter

[Brick Tamland]

Brick, it's going to be funny watching you melt down when you finish winter without an inch of snow. It would almost be with it to see that debacle.

 

 

[WidreMann]

There's not even consensus between qualified humans who interpret the models at the moment.

 

But there's an abundant supply of opinions. Many of which are different - yet based on the same runs and models.

 

I don't know how anyone can conclude anything concerning 3+ weeks out other than through trend observation (which looks favorable).

You don't understand. The default, based on multi-year trends, is that it will be mild and relatively snowless. So unless the models consistently show a robust cold and stormy pattern develop, it's reasonable to assume that it will be mild. That's climatology, and it generally wins.

[Brick Tamland]

A great band once put it best: Don't stop believing.

[metalicwx366]

I'm pretty sure if the Euro was showing cold it would have been mentioned this morning. Let's just keep pushing the time frame further back.

[Bevo]

You don't understand. The default, based on multi-year trends, is that it will be mild and relatively snowless. So unless the models consistently show a robust cold and stormy pattern develop, it's reasonable to assume that it will be mild. That's climatology, and it generally wins.

 

I understand actually. But I'm addressing the bad habit of changing an outlook for an entire winter based on every Z run of "insert model name" or the changing opinions of forum members.

 

All of our winters are relatively snowless. I mistakenly assume - every year - that it's common knowledge.

[metalicwx366]

A great band once out it best: Don't stop believing.

Winter cancel. U not gettin any sno dis winta so u can stop believin!

[BullCityWx]

There are only 2 times I can think of that featured cold and snow before mid Dec in the last 30 years that went on to have winter weather after the new year outside of the mountains. Those are 2009-2010 and 2010-2011. 

 

1989-1990 : December was very cold with ice and some snow , the rest of winter was warm

2000-2001 : some snow in November and December, rest of winter cold but no winter precip

2005-2006 : big Dec ice storm, nothing rest of winter 

2011-2012 : a big October snow in the northeast, rest of winter was warm with only 1 small storm in Feb in NC. not even 1 flake of snow or sleet pellet where I am

2012-2013 : major snow from Sandy that year in the mountains , rest of winter was warm but we did get lucky and have 3 very minor events

 

Winters that featured a November as cold or colder as the one we had this year: 

2013

2002

1995

[mackerel_sky]

A great band once put it best: Don't stop believing.

"Great" ? I hope your using the term great very loosely !! That's a very girly band.

[southernskimmer]

18/90 days into meterological winter. Cancel it all.

[mackerel_sky]

I'm pretty sure if the Euro was showing cold it would have been mentioned this morning. Let's just keep pushing the time frame further back.

Very valid point Metal! If you wake up and don't see one post about Euro, it was a suck fest !

No posts= no cold or snow

[Brick Tamland]

"Great" ? I hope your using the term great very loosely !! That's a very girly band.

 

How dare you besmirch Journey!

[Cold Rain]

18/90 days into meterological winter. Cancel it all.

Or another way to look at it is 20% fail...and counting.

Of course, I'm just kidding around. I think we flip in Jan. to a better pattern.

[Brick Tamland]

I don't how some of you make it through life if you are as negative about other things as you are here.

[packbacker]

Very valid point Metal! If you wake up and don't see one post about Euro, it was a suck fest !

No posts= no cold or snow

The 11-15 day EPS was showing cold. It does have ridging in the SE so the storm pattern would probably be better for TN valley and MA. That's per that run, GEFS and CMC-ENS are better for us. Who knows, until we are inside day 10 we won't know. And we don't know the staying power either. It's kind of scary it's going to take a hurricane over the lakes to flip the pattern to a cold one. But whatever gets the job done.

[packbacker]

Or another way to look at it is 20% fail...and counting.

Of course, I'm just kidding around. I think we flip in Jan. to a better pattern.

Let's face it, our snow chances don't really get going until Jan. We can get snow in Dec it's just not that frequent.

If come mid-Jan we are still skunked and we are saying "but Feb is our best snow month", please do me a favor and push me off the cliff.

[jshetley]

Winters that featured a November as cold or colder as the one we had this year: 

2013

2002

1995

Looks like I missed 2002 for sure and feel stupid. That icestorm was on Dec 5 and we did have a great winter after Jan 1. I don't think we had any winter weather in Nov or Dec of 1995 or 2013, but they were cold.

 

The point is that having snow or ice before around Dec 15 usually means the rest of winter is kind of boring. Temps don't seems to be as important though.

[mackerel_sky]

How dare you besmirch Journey!

They sound better with the new Chinese singer.

I lump them into the same group as def Leppard and foghat, lol

[metalicwx366]

I don't how some of you make it through life if you are as negative about other things as you are here.

Brick find something positive to say about this. Sometimes you have to be real about things and not just go by what others are saying. Especially ones who are always calling for cold and have been screaming pattern change since the beginning of the month.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014121800/ecmwf_T850_us.html

Edit: Forgot you can't read this ****.

[Brick Tamland]

Brick find something positive to say about this. Sometimes you have to be real about things and not just go by what others are saying. Especially ones who are always calling for cold and have been screaming pattern change since the beginning of the month.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014121800/ecmwf_T850_us.html

Edit: Forgot you can't read this ****.

 

Most mets have said since the beginning of the month that the pattern change would not happen until around Christmas. There are still plenty of good signs going forward. You and a couple of others are always pessimistic no matter what. It's old.

 

Edit: And way to be a jerk, too. 

[Bevo]

The 11-15 day EPS was showing cold. It does have ridging in the SE so the storm pattern would probably be better for TN valley and MA. That's per that run, GEFS and CMC-ENS are better for us. Who knows, until we are inside day 10 we won't know. And we don't know the staying power either. It's kind of scary it's going to take a hurricane over the lakes to flip the pattern to a cold one. But whatever gets the job done.

 

This is my point. How can there be a conclusive forecast based on model changes every Z?

 

Climo is a different discussion - as Widre brought up.

 

 

Brick find something positive to say about this. Sometimes you have to be real about things and not just go by what others are saying. Especially ones who are always calling for cold and have been screaming pattern change since the beginning of the month.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014121800/ecmwf_T850_us.html

Edit: Forgot you can't read this ****.

 

Technically, those people aren't wrong.......................................................................yet.

[metalicwx366]

Most mets have said since the beginning of the month that the pattern change would not happen until around Christmas. There are still plenty of good signs going forward. You and a couple of others are always pessimistic no matter what. It's old.

No the **** they didn't. I'm glad they can see 25+ days into the future. Clearly the time frame has continously been getting pushed back. Now we are at nearing Christmas. NYD is now becoming the new time frame for the cold. And why is it that the SsW events are always 300+ hours away. You and a couple others are always optimistic no matter what. It gets old.

[Brick Tamland]

No the **** they didn't. I'm glad they can see 25+ days into the future. Clearly the time frame has continously been getting pushed back. Now we are at nearing Christmas. NYD is now becoming the new time frame for the cold. And why is it that the SsW events are always 300+ hours away. You and a couple others are always optimistic no matter what. It gets old.

 

 

Blah, blah, blah. Same negative crap. You must be really fun to be around.

 

Go back and look at what mets and others have said at the beginning of the month. They said not to expect anything this month until after Christmas. There is plenty of winter left. You are just being miserable as usual. Not even sure why you come here and torture yourself.

 

By the way, you can't read the curse words here, so pretty pointless to use them.

[Cold Rain]

Blah, blah, blah. Same negative crap. You must be really fun to be around.

 

Go back and look at what mets and others have said at the beginning of the month. They said not to expect anything this month until after Christmas. There is plenty of winter left. You are just being miserable as usual. Not even sure why you come here and torture yourself.

 

By the way, you can't read the curse words here, so pretty pointless to use them.

Well, that's not entirely correct. First it was around 12/20. Then, it was around 12/25. Now, it's around 1/1. Whatever. It'll get cold or it won't, but it's not as if the pattern change wasn't supposed to be within 10 days from today. Because it was, when it was being discussed earlier this month. That's fine though, because these things usually take time to get going (and they usually seem to get muted in their modeled intensity and duration too, but I'm not actually going to say that out loud).

[buckeyefan1]

That Christmas day storm is where I feel like I went from boy to man on the forums. 

That was an awesome, never to be forgotten memory  

 

Brick, it's going to be funny watching you melt down when you finish winter without an inch of snow. It would almost be with it to see that debacle.

I've seen the se crew melt down.......it isn't pretty  

 

You don't understand. The default, based on multi-year trends, is that it will be mild and relatively snowless. So unless the models consistently show a robust cold and stormy pattern develop, it's reasonable to assume that it will be mild. That's climatology, and it generally wins.

Truth  

 

A great band once put it best: Don't stop believing.

     

 

I understand actually. But I'm addressing the bad habit of changing an outlook for an entire winter based on every Z run of "insert model name" or the changing opinions of forum members.

 

All of our winters are relatively snowless. I mistakenly assume - every year - that it's common knowledge.

This is true living here between the portals  

 

"Great" ? I hope your using the term great very loosely !! That's a very girly band.

 

They sound better with the new Chinese singer.

I lump them into the same group as def Leppard and foghat, lol

No.....just no  

 

No the **** they didn't. I'm glad they can see 25+ days into the future. Clearly the time frame has continously been getting pushed back. Now we are at nearing Christmas. NYD is now becoming the new time frame for the cold. And why is it that the SsW events are always 300+ hours away. You and a couple others are always optimistic no matter what. It gets old.

I will always remain optimistic until the end of Feb     It's the SOUTH. You should always believe that with a little bit of blocking, anything is possible       

[Isopycnic]

If this winter does not end up being big, then mets are going to have to rethink everything they know about what gives us a good winter.

Not really. 

[toxictwister00]

Brick find something positive to say about this. Sometimes you have to be real about things and not just go by what others are saying. Especially ones who are always calling for cold and have been screaming pattern change since the beginning of the month.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014121800/ecmwf_T850_us.html

Edit: Forgot you can't read this ****.

 

I'm going to play devil's advocate here: if all the 12z model suites (including the Euro) showed the Eastern half of the US going into the deep freezer Christmas onward, what is your argument going to be? It's just a blip run? Unless I'm mistaken I don't recall there being an unanimous agreement for not only days, but weeks that a warm up of a SE ridge had a very likely chance of happening. Basically that it must be a done deal.

 

It's fun to see what the models spit out (good or bad for snowlovers), but if I were to bet all my money on the models staying 100% consistent run to run on what the pattern will be with 100% certainty and whether or not it will produce a snowstorm for us all from Christmas to mid January, I would living in a cardboard box underneath a bridge right now. I can't live and die by every model run of every model guidance, ensemble means day by day, that's how you get burned every time. It was only 24 hrs ago the 12z Euro was saying the complete opposite in the LR. Hell, look at how things changed for this weekend and the Christmas Eve system.

 

I'm not saying the idea of a SE ridge post Christmas can't or won't happen/isn't feasible, but declaring defeat (Winter CANCEL) before the battle has even begun doesn't make much sense to me either.

 

Whatever happens, happens. That's just the way it's gonna be whether we like it or not.

[Brick Tamland]

I'm going to play devil's advocate here: if all the 12z model suites (including the Euro) showed the Eastern half of the US going into the deep freezer Christmas onward, what is your argument going to be? It's just a blip run? Unless I'm mistaken I don't recall there being an unanimous agreement for not only days, but weeks that a warm up of a SE ridge had a very likely chance of happening. Basically that it must be a done deal.

 

It's fun to see what the models spit out (good or bad for snowlovers), but if I were to bet all my money on the models staying 100% consistent run to run on what the pattern will be with 100% certainty and whether or not it will produce a snowstorm for us all from Christmas to mid January, I would living in a cardboard box underneath a bridge right now. I can't live and die by every model run of every model guidance, ensemble means day by day, that's how you get burned every time. It was only 24 hrs ago the 12z Euro was saying the complete opposite in the LR. Hell, look at how things changed for this weekend and the Christmas Eve system.

 

I'm not saying the idea of a SE ridge post Christmas can't or won't happen/isn't feasible, but declaring defeat (Winter CANCEL) before the battle has even begun doesn't make much sense to me either.

 

Whatever happens, happens. That's just the way it's gonna be whether we like it or not.

 

That's what my motto is going to be now. No reason to not remain positive. I am just going to ignore the haters from now on. 

[Bevo]

I'm going to play devil's advocate here: if all the 12z model suites (including the Euro) showed the Eastern half of the US going into the deep freezer Christmas onward, what is your argument going to be? It's just a blip run? Unless I'm mistaken I don't recall there being an unanimous agreement for not only days, but weeks that a warm up of a SE ridge had a very likely chance of happening. Basically that it must be a done deal.

 

It's fun to see what the models spit out (good or bad for snowlovers), but if I were to bet all my money on the models staying 100% consistent run to run on what the pattern will be with 100% certainty and whether or not it will produce a snowstorm for us all from Christmas to mid January, I would living in a cardboard box underneath a bridge right now. I can't live and die by every model run of every model guidance, ensemble means day by day, that's how you get burned every time. It was only 24 hrs ago the 12z Euro was saying the complete opposite in the LR. Hell, look at how things changed for this weekend and the Christmas Eve system.

 

I'm not saying the idea of a SE ridge post Christmas can't or won't happen/isn't feasible, but declaring defeat (Winter CANCEL) before the battle has even begun doesn't make much sense to me either.

 

Whatever happens, happens. That's just the way it's gonna be whether we like it or not.

 

But...but...someone has to be right! It's not a normal, social discussion if someone doesn't win.

 

#sarcasmfont

[metalicwx366]

Blah, blah, blah. Same negative crap. You must be really fun to be around.

Go back and look at what mets and others have said at the beginning of the month. They said not to expect anything this month until after Christmas. There is plenty of winter left. You are just being miserable as usual. Not even sure why you come here and torture yourself.

By the way, you can't read the curse words here, so pretty pointless to use them.

:lmao:

[metalicwx366]

I'm going to play devil's advocate here: if all the 12z model suites (including the Euro) showed the Eastern half of the US going into the deep freezer Christmas onward, what is your argument going to be? It's just a blip run? Unless I'm mistaken I don't recall there being an unanimous agreement for not only days, but weeks that a warm up of a SE ridge had a very likely chance of happening. Basically that it must be a done deal.

It's fun to see what the models spit out (good or bad for snowlovers), but if I were to bet all my money on the models staying 100% consistent run to run on what the pattern will be with 100% certainty and whether or not it will produce a snowstorm for us all from Christmas to mid January, I would living in a cardboard box underneath a bridge right now. I can't live and die by every model run of every model guidance, ensemble means day by day, that's how you get burned every time. It was only 24 hrs ago the 12z Euro was saying the complete opposite in the LR. Hell, look at how things changed for this weekend and the Christmas Eve system.

I'm not saying the idea of a SE ridge post Christmas can't or won't happen/isn't feasible, but declaring defeat (Winter CANCEL) before the battle has even begun doesn't make much sense to me either.

Whatever happens, happens. That's just the way it's gonna be whether we like it or not.

If they all show a deep freezer for the 12z run, I'm still going to feel the same way if it's 240 hours out. Now when we get into the <192 hours out, it's a different story. Have you guys not noticed we aren't making any progress if the pattern change being showed is always at 384 or 240?

Btw, what if all the models starting showing warm at 12z?