mackerel_sky Posted December 18, 2014 Author Share Posted December 18, 2014 #FaithInTheFlakes.I'm thinking:#Ftheflakesandpatternchange Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 This weekend's storm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Hey guys, if it holds, the CFSv2 technically sniffed out the Christmas storm first. All hail CFSv2. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45020-december-banter/page-10#entry3168173 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 This weekend's storm: Some of us like following drizzle-storms, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Nada for anyone in East Coast outside LES areas and Northern Apps peaks until after December 27 per 0z Euro. We do have a building snowpack over Great Plans after Christmas, though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Nada for anyone in East Coast outside LES areas and Northern Apps peaks until after December 27 per 0z Euro. We do have a building snowpack over Great Plans after Christmas, though... The Euro's reputation must have really taken a hit after its disastrous handling of this coming weekend's cloudy/drizzle "storm" if we're now discussing it in banter. Nice 576 dm heights over NC at the end of the run, too... It's pouring the cold in the west again and pumping up heights out this way. 850s in the 10-15C range. Highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s for most of the region. Thankfully, it's just one op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I was just looking at the old Easternwx forums and saw a lot of old names that I don't see anymore like beanskip. coldcyclonefan, gastonwxman, of course Robert posted more back then.. and we still had eyewall around.. miss those days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I was just looking at the old Easternwx forums and saw a lot of old names that I don't see anymore like beanskip. coldcyclonefan, gastonwxman, of course Robert posted more back then.. and we still had eyewall around.. miss those days I think beanskip still posts occasionally, but I believe he moved to Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 The Euro's reputation must have really taken a hit after its disastrous handling of this coming weekend's cloudy/drizzle "storm" if we're now discussing it in banter. Nice 576 dm heights over NC at the end of the run, too... It's pouring the cold in the west again and pumping up heights out this way. 850s in the 10-15C range. Highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s for most of the region. Thankfully, it's just one op run. Ehh, it's not just Euro. I didn't think it was worth posting in Pattern thread considering how much models are flip-flopping long range. Thanks goodness my 4 inches from a fluke ULL and a nice NWFS is keeping me sane thus far as I'm usually not known for patience. Someone apparently lost it in Mid-Atlantic thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Thanks goodness my 4 inches from a fluke ULL and a nice NWFS is keeping me sane thus far as I'm usually not known for patience. Someone apparently lost it in Mid-Atlantic thread Looks like Ji is being... Ji. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45168-this-winter-sucks-the-big-one/#entry3197961 Horrible start. We just punted away one winter month. Pattern change keeps getting delayed. No cold in Canada. Can't even drive to see snow. This smells like 2006-2007. Like we're going to get 2 good winters in a row. I've seen enough. It's flipping over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Also looking back at the old forum I noticed the doom and gloom for the winter of 2010-2011 which actually ended up above average in the foothills from 3 storms. 1 surprise in December (http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/localdat/cases/2010/12Dec_Snow/Event_Review_12Dec10.pdf) the Christmas storm http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/localdat/cases/2010/white_Christmas/25-27_december_2010.jpg and another storm in early January before the rest of the winter torched, but 16 inches here that winter.. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/localdat/cases/2011/10Jan_WinterStorm/Snow&FrzgRain_10%20Jan11.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Also looking back at the old forum I noticed the doom and gloom for the winter of 2010-2011 which actually ended up above average in the foothills from 3 storms. 1 surprise in December (http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/localdat/cases/2010/12Dec_Snow/Event_Review_12Dec10.pdf) the Christmas storm http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/localdat/cases/2010/white_Christmas/25-27_december_2010.jpg and another storm in early January before the rest of the winter torched, but 16 inches here that winter.. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/localdat/cases/2011/10Jan_WinterStorm/Snow&FrzgRain_10%20Jan11.pdf Hard to believe there was any doom and gloom that winter considering it got off to such a cold and snowy start in December and lasted all the way through Mid February here. Then the 2nd half of Feb was very warm, but it was a great winter overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Also looking back at the old forum I noticed the doom and gloom for the winter of 2010-2011 which actually ended up above average in the foothills from 3 storms. 1 surprise in December (http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/localdat/cases/2010/12Dec_Snow/Event_Review_12Dec10.pdf) the Christmas storm http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/localdat/cases/2010/white_Christmas/25-27_december_2010.jpg and another storm in early January before the rest of the winter torched, but 16 inches here that winter.. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/localdat/cases/2011/10Jan_WinterStorm/Snow&FrzgRain_10%20Jan11.pdf We had three snow events in December, including this one: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20101204.gif And, of course, the Boxing Day storm... Then the rest of the winter sucked. The January storm disintegrated before it really got here. It was depressing to watch. The OBX got crushed in late January (just a nice cloudy day in the 20s here), we got a coating of snow in February, and we got a trace on March 28th. Aside from that, it was over. Definitely a front-loaded winter. The winter was basically over after December 26th IMBY. We still ended up with a little above average snowfall, so it was a decent enough winter, but I hate front-loaded winters like that. I'd prefer rear-loaded winters like last winter, if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 We had three snow events in December, including this one: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20101204.gif And, of course, the Boxing Day storm... Then the rest of the winter sucked. The January storm disintegrated before it really got here. It was depressing to watch. The OBX got crushed in late January (just a nice cloudy day in the 20s here), we got a coating of snow in February, and we got a trace on March 28th. Aside from that, it was over. Definitely a front-loaded winter. The winter was basically over after December 26th IMBY. We still ended up with a little above average snowfall, so it was a decent enough winter, but I hate front-loaded winters like that. I'd prefer rear-loaded winters like last winter, if anything. Last winter was OK, but also terribly frustrating here...the Jan 28th event was about 1.5 inches here and almost 4 inches 20 miles to our east in Morganton at a lower elevation.. The February 13 storm was great (8 inches) but was hard to enjoy due to the death of my mother.. then the March slop storm... 1 inch of snow.. then rain.. then sleep.. then snow.. amounted to a whole lot of nothing here.. in all about 12 inches on the winter.. a little above average but nothing spectacular like many had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Many Nino winters have slow starts, think mid Jan. to mid Feb will be good for snow, think the wall to wall cold analogs are out obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Looks like Ji is being... Ji. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45168-this-winter-sucks-the-big-one/#entry3197961 Classic JI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Also looking back at the old forum I noticed the doom and gloom for the winter of 2010-2011 which actually ended up above average in the foothills from 3 storms. 1 surprise in December (http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/localdat/cases/2010/12Dec_Snow/Event_Review_12Dec10.pdf) the Christmas storm http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/localdat/cases/2010/white_Christmas/25-27_december_2010.jpg and another storm in early January before the rest of the winter torched, but 16 inches here that winter.. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/localdat/cases/2011/10Jan_WinterStorm/Snow&FrzgRain_10%20Jan11.pdf That Christmas day storm is where I feel like I went from boy to man on the forums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I still say this will be a repeat of 2011- 2012. Seems like everything keeps getting pushed back just like then. Most of the SE has already had the coldest weather this winter has to offer and the Nov 1 snow is all that falls in SC this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 18, 2014 Author Share Posted December 18, 2014 Who would have thought the big pattern change would be a change to warm!!? Very disheartening runs from both models yesterday and last night. Hopefully they are wrong, but what a kick in the pants for winter lovers! The warministas should be rejoicing !! The most epic winter ever, is starting to look like crap! Wonder what JB has to say about this, has to be sweating a little about his forecast for winter? People can claim Dec was wild card , but iirc most every forecast had cold Jan, if the models are right, not a good start to Jan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I still say this will be a repeat of 2011- 2012. Seems like everything keeps getting pushed back just like then. Most of the SE has already had the coldest weather this winter has to offer and the Nov 1 snow is all that falls in SC this winter. I'm starting to believe that myself. Although I think I feel this way every winter because I generally enjoy snow the most in December as it really puts me in the Christmas Spirt, and when that doesn't happen I guess I just become disheartened. As I've learned not every year can be as special as 2009/2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I still say this will be a repeat of 2011- 2012. Seems like everything keeps getting pushed back just like then. Most of the SE has already had the coldest weather this winter has to offer and the Nov 1 snow is all that falls in SC this winter. OMG pllleeeeaaaasssseeee don't start this s*** again. You did this at least 3 times last winter and failed miserably. This is why no one takes you seriously. It is absolutely ridiculous to make such progs on 12/18. I have to believe you do this out of some weird, misunderstood, teenager mad-at-dad, sarcastic joking mentality & don't intend to be taken seriously. You know....those "dark humor" types. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 If this winter does not end up being big, then mets are going to have to rethink everything they know about what gives us a good winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Who would have thought the big pattern change would be a change to warm!!? Very disheartening runs from both models yesterday and last night. Hopefully they are wrong, but what a kick in the pants for winter lovers! The warministas should be rejoicing !! The most epic winter ever, is starting to look like crap! Wonder what JB has to say about this, has to be sweating a little about his forecast for winter? People can claim Dec was wild card , but iirc most every forecast had cold Jan, if the models are right, not a good start to Jan I'm starting to believe that myself. Although I think I feel this way every winter because I generally enjoy snow the most in December as it really puts me in the Christmas Spirt, and when that doesn't happen I guess I just become disheartened. As I've learned not every year can be as special as 2009/2010 So - what exactly are you looking at/studying to reach this conclusion? Where is this coming from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 There are only 2 times I can think of that featured cold and snow before mid Dec in the last 30 years that went on to have winter weather after the new year outside of the mountains. Those are 2009-2010 and 2010-2011. 1989-1990 : December was very cold with ice and some snow , the rest of winter was warm 2000-2001 : some snow in November and December, rest of winter cold but no winter precip 2005-2006 : big Dec ice storm, nothing rest of winter 2011-2012 : a big October snow in the northeast, rest of winter was warm with only 1 small storm in Feb in NC. not even 1 flake of snow or sleet pellet where I am 2012-2013 : major snow from Sandy that year in the mountains , rest of winter was warm but we did get lucky and have 3 very minor events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 That Christmas day storm is where I feel like I went from boy to man on the forums. Ha! It was a rite of passage, so to speak. That was the first storm that I experienced as a member of this forum. I will remember your intense PBP of the models from that storm and Robert's incredible posts leading up to it. What a great thrill ride that was! May we have many more such threads in the near future... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 18, 2014 Author Share Posted December 18, 2014 So - what exactly are you looking at/studying to reach this conclusion? Where is this coming from?For myself, it's from the 12z Euro yesterday op and ensembles, last nights euro and GFS , no more then a day or two of cold, then about 10-15 degrees above norms up to New Years . It wasn't just one model or one run, that's the concerning part to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Looks like Ji is being... Ji. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45168-this-winter-sucks-the-big-one/#entry3197961 LOL...I am sure it is frustrating for them as December is a viable snow month for them. I think a lot of that is reverse psychology, they pout and moan and then then they think the weather will shut them up with a blizzard. Maybe we should try that... Didn't Don S. have something a few years ago showing how a snowy NYC in Dec is a good omen for the EC? It's going to be close but I would think they will have a chance the last few days of Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 For myself, it's from the 12z Euro yesterday op and ensembles, last nights euro and GFS , no more then a day or two of cold, then about 10-15 degrees above norms up to New Years . It wasn't just one model or one run, that's the concerning part to me There's not even consensus between qualified humans who interpret the models at the moment. But there's an abundant supply of opinions. Many of which are different - yet based on the same runs and models. I don't know how anyone can conclude anything concerning 3+ weeks out other than through trend observation (which looks favorable). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 So - what exactly are you looking at/studying to reach this conclusion? Where is this coming from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Brick, it's going to be funny watching you melt down when you finish winter without an inch of snow. It would almost be with it to see that debacle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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