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December Banter


mackerel_sky

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Ok?...

 

Since you agreed w/ his statement, I'm just curious why you think it was correct, to focus on a region not associated directly w/ CAD? 

Ok?..... that is your answer to my question? 

 

You need to read again......I agreed that a snowpack (while always helpful and we need all the help we can get) isn't a necessity in order to have a good CAD event, or any event here for that matter. 

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Ok?...

 

Since you agreed w/ his statement, I'm just curious why you think it was correct, to focus on a region not associated directly w/ CAD? 

 

I am finding it hard to believe, that with the meteorological terms you have at your command, you don't seem to understand, "let it go".

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I'm curious as to why your common sense didn't tell you that continuing with this in the discussion thread would be a bad idea?

 

Ok?..... that is your answer to my question? 

 

You need to read again......I agreed that a snowpack (while always helpful and we need all the help we can get) isn't a necessity in order to have a good CAD event, or any event here for that matter. 

 

You blew the initial intentions of my post out of proportion, at no point did I say it was absolutely necessary to have a snowpack in place and I made sure to state that this was to be given consideration when all else was approximately equal), but using actual evidence, we simply have not seen a cold air damming event since the IMS record began result in wintry precipitation in our portion of central NC when the southern edge of the snowpack was well north of the I-80 corridor like it is now, and I showed the strength of the CAD is directly related to the extent of the snowpack (as was the case last Feb). It would be nice outside the basis of uncertainty, for someone to present historical evidence to the contrary in reference to Miller B storms (Miller A is a different story), it is unfortunate that the IMS daily record only goes back to 2000, I'm sure I could come to more confident conclusions w/ a larger record... However, I also plotted the southern edge of the snow extent in all RAH past winter weather events since 2000 (including systems that affected the mountains only) which gives my ideas more credence...

US-Snow-cover-edge-NC-Snows-1-day-lag-10

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Ok?..... that is your answer to my question? 

 

You need to read again......I agreed that a snowpack (while always helpful and we need all the help we can get) isn't a necessity in order to have a good CAD event, or any event here for that matter. 

 

I will see if I can find any datasets that have a longer daily record, after all we've been in the satellite era since at least the 1970s, there's bound to be one out there somewhere...

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You blew the initial intentions of my post out of proportion, at no point did I say it was absolutely necessary to have a snowpack in place and I made sure to state that this was to be given consideration when all else was approximately equal), but using actual evidence, we simply have not seen a cold air damming event since the IMS record began result in wintry precipitation in our portion of central NC when the southern edge of the snowpack was well north of the I-80 corridor like it is now, and I showed the strength of the CAD is directly related to the extent of the snowpack (as was the case last Feb). It would be nice outside the basis of uncertainty, for someone to present historical evidence to the contrary in reference to Miller B storms (Miller A is a different story), it is unfortunate that the IMS daily record only goes back to 2000, I'm sure I could come to more confident conclusions w/ a larger record... However, I also plotted the southern edge of the snow extent in all RAH past winter weather events since 2000 (including systems that affected the mountains only) which gives my ideas more credence...

 

No....you did not use the word absolutely, but the context in your statement and you saying it has to happen in order to sustain a cold and snowy period just isn't true. We live in the SOUTH where it's a rarity for it to just snow period. Let alone stick around for any length of time. 

 

I will see if I can find any datasets that have a longer daily record, after all we've been in the satellite era since at least the 1970s, there's bound to be one out there somewhere...

The dataset needs to be at least older than me and the satellite era is not gonna cut it...lol

 

The cold never bothered me anyway  :santa:

Indeed  :wub:

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And that's how you start a fight on an Internet forum and make mods have to do too much work.  And for what reason?  Why not something more along the lines of:

 

"I disagree with the suggestion that we can't get a good snowstorm unless we have snowpack to our north, and here's why: ..."

 

Superjames provided some examples a few days ago that help your cause, if I remember correctly.

 

Just for the heck of it I looked at the date of the heaviest snowfall I have had since living here.  A nice 20" blast on Feb. 27 into the early hours of the 28th, 2004.

 

standard.jpg

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You blew the initial intentions of my post out of proportion, at no point did I say it was absolutely necessary to have a snowpack in place and I made sure to state that this was to be given consideration when all else was approximately equal), but using actual evidence, we simply have not seen a cold air damming event since the IMS record began result in wintry precipitation in our portion of central NC when the southern edge of the snowpack was well north of the I-80 corridor like it is now, and I showed the strength of the CAD is directly related to the extent of the snowpack (as was the case last Feb). It would be nice outside the basis of uncertainty, for someone to present historical evidence to the contrary in reference to Miller B storms (Miller A is a different story), it is unfortunate that the IMS daily record only goes back to 2000, I'm sure I could come to more confident conclusions w/ a larger record... However, I also plotted the southern edge of the snow extent in all RAH past winter weather events since 2000 (including systems that affected the mountains only) which gives my ideas more credence...

 

 

AJQalHc.gif

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Since we are in the banter thread..... it seems that all the fighting these days have something in common. It's YOU. Your posts have created so much strife that some have left for good. Maybe you should take the advice of others, and think about how to respond to a post you don't particularly agree with.

+1 

The arguing and being objective does need to stop.  Discourse=Dysfunction!

 

 

And some shouldn't blame Webber, he's just trying to explain it so people can understand.

 

I think it boils down to this .. Some people have very high expectations for this winter with all of the favorable winter outlooks and el nino developing.  I'm guessing they're expecting an immediate impact (which hasn't occurred).  I think patience should be advised as el nino takes place around christmas, hence the name - "the baby boy."  Speaking of which, I wish all of you an early Merry Christmas!  Let's take the time to be grateful and spread cheer towards eachother.

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Since we are in the banter thread..... it seems that all the fighting these days have something in common. It's YOU. Your posts have created so much strife that some have left for good. Maybe you should take the advice of others, and think about how to respond to a post you don't particularly agree with.

Lmao, ok.m we get it, you don't like me, maybe try the ignore button? If people have left because of my postings please enlighten us on who they are.

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No....you did not use the word absolutely, but the context in your statement and you saying it has to happen in order to sustain a cold and snowy period just isn't true. We live in the SOUTH where it's a rarity for it to just snow period. Let alone stick around for any length of time. 

 

The dataset needs to be at least older than me and the satellite era is not gonna cut it...lol

 

Indeed   :wub:

 

 

Yeah, I did say we have to have a formidable snowpack to lock in a persistent cold/snowy pattern in the south... A question for you is, has there actually been a period w/ a snowpack extent below climatology where we observed multiple winter weather events here in central NC? I'll be waiting...

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Yeah, I did say we have to have a formidable snowpack to lock in a persistent cold/snowy pattern in the south... A question for you is, has there actually been a period w/ a snowpack extent below climatology where we observed multiple winter weather events here in central NC? I'll be waiting...

Like how I'm still waiting for your answer to my original question?  

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Just for the heck of it I looked at the date of the heaviest snowfall I have had since living here.  A nice 20" blast on Feb. 27 into the early hours of the 28th, 2004.

 

standard.jpg

 

I'm glad you brought up Feb 2004, as I noted on the main blog just a while ago, the snowpack doesn't have to be as extensive in Miller A's because we're not trying to drive the cold air out of here in mid-upper levels as w/ Miller B's... Feb 26-27 2004 was a Miller A much like Dec 2000 & Dec 2009 that didn't have the most impressive snowpack in the world leading up to the storm...

 

sfcanl_us_bw_2004022700.gif

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Now, phrases such as "step down" and "the nino is looking more slow" are being thrown in the mix. lolz January already looking like toast on the weeklies, etc.

I can't wait for March. The mood here should be interesting.

My expectations for this winter have lowered tremendously over the last month. At this point, I'm just hoping we don't have a 2011-12 repeat.
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