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December Banter

mackerel_sky

By mackerel_sky,
in Southeastern States

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calculus1

calculus1

Posted
Posted

Me either but..... People trying to explain why a -PNA would be a good thing makes my head hurt. -PNA is a killer for snow in the SE. Regardless if we get a - PNA or not it's never a good indicator for snow chances in the SE region. Also the suggestion that we can't get a good snowstorm unless we have snowpack to our north, I call BS.

 

And that's how you start a fight on an Internet forum and make mods have to do too much work.  And for what reason?  Why not something more along the lines of:

 

"I disagree with the suggestion that we can't get a good snowstorm unless we have snowpack to our north, and here's why: ..."

 

Superjames provided some examples a few days ago that help your cause, if I remember correctly.

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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

Posted
Posted

And that's how you start a fight on an Internet forum and make mods have to do too much work.  And for what reason?  Why not something more along the lines of:

 

"I disagree with the suggestion that we can't get a good snowstorm unless we have snowpack to our north, and here's why: ..."

 

Superjames provided some examples a few days ago that help your cause, if I remember correctly.

 

Well, my comment was posted in banter because I didn't feel like posting a long drawn out explanation why I thought the suggestion was wrong.  If I were to go into detail I would have put it in the pinned thread.  Honestly the suggestion is so ridiculous I didn't feel like it warranted a long drawn out explanation.  I call BS should pretty much sum up what I think about it.  If I wanted to start a fight my post would have been a lot different.  The great thing about banter is you can post your thoughts without anything to back them up and people can judge for themselves. 

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Snowless in Carrollton

Snowless in Carrollton

Posted
Posted

Uh....it's December. 2011-2012 was nothing like this. Not even close. I'll hold out until Jan. is over. Just my opinion. -PNA hurts...but that's only if it sticks around for a long duration.

this December has been about as warm as December 2011. Not in the Carolinas of course, where you are always saved by CAD.
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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

I hope people who want to cancel winter until mid Jan or Feb can post something to back up their thoughts and not just fill the disco thread with straight banter. It's exhausting to read. Not all of us are weenies. I believe it's going to get cold and I never once believed in the 21st storm, so there's that. Just for god sake instead of complaining how the models are 10 days out, do something productive. Of course the models are 10 days out, 25th we're going to have a storm chance (maybe not even us, maybe just the NE) and as I pointed out most teleconnections were progged to go negative or favorable by then, recently it's been earlier (24th). It's 10 days out for a reason. Also, during a pattern change you're going to see models spit out different solutions especially in the LR, that's why it's called guidance. Id post the ensemble members for the last frame of the GFS if you want to see how far the spread between solutions are so you'll understand. It's all about means...and normalized anomaly maps in the long range can TRICK your eyes. The Euro weeklies aren't exactly perfect and honestly they don't even look that bad. It's basically a control run extended so you're supposed to recognize that it put out a crappy result and take it with a huge grain of salt, it misses sometimes.

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toxictwister00

toxictwister00

Posted
Posted

Couldn't have said it better myself Jon. I don't get why there is such brash criticism of LR discussion and immediate cliff diving after every new model run differs from the previous run. Some of you guys are going to drive yourselves bat sh*t crazy over something you never have and never will have control over. Just take a deep breath, chill, and go with the flow. Let mother nature take her course.

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

And that's how you start a fight on an Internet forum and make mods have to do too much work.  And for what reason?  Why not something more along the lines of:

 

"I disagree with the suggestion that we can't get a good snowstorm unless we have snowpack to our north, and here's why: ..."

 

Superjames provided some examples a few days ago that help your cause, if I remember correctly.

 

Yeah, I don't disagree with the assertion that having a snowpack is a good thing for Southeastern wintry weather; I just don't think it's a necessary condition.  I think it is more important with CAD situations, though.

 

The February 19, 2012 storm had a horrible snowpack as did the March 1, 2009 storm, in addition to the ones I already listed.

 

Couple days before the March 1, 2009 snowstorm, which blanketed snow all over the Southeast:

 

nsm_depth_2009022705_National.jpg

 

The day prior to the aforementioned February 19, 2012 snowstorm.  I think this was our only snow event of the season in that pathetic, God awful "winter".  As you can see, the snowpack is awful.

 

nsm_depth_2012021805_National.jpg

 

Again, neither event was really CAD-dependent, as I recall, and March 2009 was heavily dependent on dynamics (maybe February 2012 was, too, but I don't really remember much about it, TBH, aside from it being a wet snow event during the afternoon/evening in late February).  I don't think February 2012 was event a street-sticker here (just a driveway-sticker) as, despite 2" of snow, the roads were warm due to preceding warm weather and the sun angle was pretty high that late in the winter.  In addition, the snow fell at light/moderate rates for the most part.

 

There's no doubt that I'd rather have a snowpack down to our north than not, though.  Hell, it would even be better if we had a snowpack of our own down, but that's a rare luxury! :D

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Webberweather53

Webberweather53

Posted
Posted

One thing i will agree on with you is that more snow in the plains will cool the air more. I'm just gonna agree to disagree on the NE part.   

 

Ok, so you agree on the part about the more volatile snowpack over the plains having an effect (which may I remind you has an indirect effect), but not for areas to our north-northeast which again is the source region for the air that is advected S-SSWward in CAD events and directly effects the strength of the CAD here in NC? Just so we're clear, CAD events involve NNE winds, yes north-northeasterly winds that bring in cold air from New England, Quebec, Ontario, & even some air off the NE US coast in association with the cold Labrador Current, I think it's just common sense to focus on the region where those winds are coming from wouldn't you say? I'm curious as to your reasoning for that statement

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CAD_Wedge_NC

CAD_Wedge_NC

Posted
Posted

All im gonna say is that int his case, the clouds in the NE will lower the pressure of the high. The upper level pattern is screwing the CAD up the most IMO. I look as snow being a product of the weather, not weather being a product of the snow. Snow in my eyes is only one of many variables. 

Wrong again.... Snow cover can and does influence the weather. It sets up a temperature gradient that can sometimes be a corridor for future storm tracks. Now, that is not always the case but it does happen.

 

Edit... sorry.just saw Buckeyes post

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CAD_Wedge_NC

CAD_Wedge_NC

Posted
Posted

Well, my comment was posted in banter because I didn't feel like posting a long drawn out explanation why I thought the suggestion was wrong.  If I were to go into detail I would have put it in the pinned thread.  Honestly the suggestion is so ridiculous I didn't feel like it warranted a long drawn out explanation.  I call BS should pretty much sum up what I think about it.  If I wanted to start a fight my post would have been a lot different.  The great thing about banter is you can post your thoughts without anything to back them up and people can judge for themselves. 

Since we are in the banter thread..... it seems that all the fighting these days have something in common. It's YOU. Your posts have created so much strife that some have left for good. Maybe you should take the advice of others, and think about how to respond to a post you don't particularly agree with.

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buckeyefan1

buckeyefan1

Posted
Posted

Ok, so you agree on the part about the more volatile snowpack over the plains having an effect (which may I remind you has an indirect effect), but not for areas to our north-northeast which again is the source region for the air that is advected S-SSWward in CAD events and directly effects the strength of the CAD here in NC? Just so we're clear, CAD events involve NNE winds, yes north-northeasterly winds that bring in cold air from New England, Quebec, Ontario, & even some air off the NE US coast in association with the cold Labrador Current, I think it's just common sense to focus on the region where those winds are coming from wouldn't you say? I'm curious as to your reasoning for that statement

I'm curious as to why your common sense didn't tell you that continuing with this in the discussion thread would be a bad idea?

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