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December Banter


mackerel_sky

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First time posting on here. Just wanted to say this is the best forum on here. I love reading the posts and trying to learn. Thanks everyone.

Welcome junebug!

You know some of my kinfolk predict weather with junebugs.

You might be valuable around here :)

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 Macon's spread today will end up being at least 43 degrees! (28 to 71+). Delta probably is having trouble figuring out how to dress. ;)

Fantastic day, indeed!

This morning had a super hard, snowstorm-looking, frost on the ground, and this afternoon I rode my sea-doo !

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I really hope this time next month , we are sitting around and talking about all the snow stories and accounts of all the crazy winter weather we have had , with lots of pictures! I'm getting a little negative these days!

Where is Brick, I need his thorough analysis of all these model runs, I'm sure he will be wide open tomorrow while at work. He'll be talking about appetizers and setting the table, and just bringing the knowledge !

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I think after reading a post today on Facebook from Greg Fishel and one he made a few days so that it would be safe to say he would probably not be a fan of these weather boards.

 

He's the most conservative meteorologist I know in Carolinas. Watching him slowly crushing our dreams of snowstorm is painful at times, even though he's more likely correct than not.

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Wofford beat NCSU? That has to be some sort of epic upset!! Looks like Terriers could take down a Wolfpack!  :)

 

 

Heck, even my club team at UNCA beat Wofford in Ultimate Frisbee  :lol:

 

That is just playing the odds, though, not really forecasting.

 

To be fair, his recent post is very reasonable why our odds are very low in Central NC. The storm we're expecting next week is in Pacific at this moment so we don't really have data on it. "I don't know" is the right approach if you're forecasting for a million of people.

 

He was never the same after Dec 2000, since then he downplays everything.

 

Which storm was it that month? December 2-3?

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To be fair, his recent post is very reasonable why our odds are very low in Central NC. The storm we're expecting next week is in Pacific at this moment so we don't really have data on it. "I don't know" is the right approach if you're forecasting for a million of people.

 

 

Which storm was it that month? December 2-3?

I think it is more of the tone of his posts lately that seem to say don't believe anything you hear unless we're absolutely certain 24 hours out, and it isn't even worth discussing until then.

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Which storm was it that month? December 2-3?

 

Yeah, RDU was modeled to get 2"+ of QPF (all-snow) just a couple days prior to the storm, IIRC.  They got a trace while the coastal plain was pounded.

 

IIRC, even out here in GSO we were supposed to get pounded a few days before.  Van Denton refers to it as our "foot of sunshine" storm.  Everyone was pretty gung-ho on another beastly storm since we had just gotten destroyed in January 2000.

 

EDIT: Yeah, here's the ETA data for RDU.  I'd be melting down:  :yikes:

ETA Fous data 
12/01/00	12/02/00	12/0200	12/0200	12/0200	12/03/00	12/03/00	12/03/00	12/03/00
18Z	00Z	06Z	12Z	18Z	00Z	06Z	12Z	18Z
Fcst Hour 00	0	0	0	0.04	0.11	0.06	0.09	0.11	0.06
Fcst Hour 12	0	0	0	0.14	0.25	0.24	0.26	0.17	0
Fcst Hour 18	0	0	0.12	0.27	0.44	0.21	0.46	0	0
Fcst Hour 24	0	0	0.37	0.38	0.53	0.73	0.16	0	0
Fcst Hour 30	0.01	0.07	0.51	0.63	0.53	0.22	0	0	0
Fcst Hour 36	0.20	0.31	0.47	0.74	0.53	0	0	0	0
Fcst Hour 42	0.29	0.80	0.59	0.54	0	0	0	0	0
Fcst Hour 48	0.45	0.81	0.31	0.03	0	0	0	0	0
Total	0.95	1.99	2.38	2.77	2.39	1.46	0.97	0.28	0.06
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Yeah, RDU was modeled to get 2"+ of QPF (all-snow) just a couple days prior to the storm, IIRC.  They got a trace while the coastal plain was pounded.

 

IIRC, even out here in GSO we were supposed to get pounded a few days before.  Van Denton refers to it as our "foot of sunshine" storm.  Everyone was pretty gung-ho on another beastly storm since we had just gotten destroyed in January 2000.

 

EDIT: Yeah, here's the ETA data for RDU.  I'd be melting down:  :yikes:

ETA Fous data 
12/01/00	12/02/00	12/0200	12/0200	12/0200	12/03/00	12/03/00	12/03/00	12/03/00
18Z	00Z	06Z	12Z	18Z	00Z	06Z	12Z	18Z
Fcst Hour 00	0	0	0	0.04	0.11	0.06	0.09	0.11	0.06
Fcst Hour 12	0	0	0	0.14	0.25	0.24	0.26	0.17	0
Fcst Hour 18	0	0	0.12	0.27	0.44	0.21	0.46	0	0
Fcst Hour 24	0	0	0.37	0.38	0.53	0.73	0.16	0	0
Fcst Hour 30	0.01	0.07	0.51	0.63	0.53	0.22	0	0	0
Fcst Hour 36	0.20	0.31	0.47	0.74	0.53	0	0	0	0
Fcst Hour 42	0.29	0.80	0.59	0.54	0	0	0	0	0
Fcst Hour 48	0.45	0.81	0.31	0.03	0	0	0	0	0
Total	0.95	1.99	2.38	2.77	2.39	1.46	0.97	0.28	0.06

I guess that was payback since the Jan 2000 storm wasn't supposed to do anything just a few hours before it started. They were changing things when the snow actually started falling.

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Well, last week everyone was saying we would look good around Christmas. Now we're saying wait another week. I don't like hearing that. I am trying to remain optimistic because there has never been this much consensus on the boards and other places from mets about having a big winter here. But it is gong to be hard to remain that way if we start playing the game of pushing it back a week every week.

I told you this a few days ago and you said something about a Legion of gloom or something in GA.

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Yeah, RDU was modeled to get 2"+ of QPF (all-snow) just a couple days prior to the storm, IIRC.  They got a trace while the coastal plain was pounded.

 

IIRC, even out here in GSO we were supposed to get pounded a few days before.  Van Denton refers to it as our "foot of sunshine" storm.  Everyone was pretty gung-ho on another beastly storm since we had just gotten destroyed in January 2000.

 

EDIT: Yeah, here's the ETA data for RDU.  I'd be melting down:  :yikes:

ETA Fous data 
12/01/00	12/02/00	12/0200	12/0200	12/0200	12/03/00	12/03/00	12/03/00	12/03/00
18Z	00Z	06Z	12Z	18Z	00Z	06Z	12Z	18Z
Fcst Hour 00	0	0	0	0.04	0.11	0.06	0.09	0.11	0.06
Fcst Hour 12	0	0	0	0.14	0.25	0.24	0.26	0.17	0
Fcst Hour 18	0	0	0.12	0.27	0.44	0.21	0.46	0	0
Fcst Hour 24	0	0	0.37	0.38	0.53	0.73	0.16	0	0
Fcst Hour 30	0.01	0.07	0.51	0.63	0.53	0.22	0	0	0
Fcst Hour 36	0.20	0.31	0.47	0.74	0.53	0	0	0	0
Fcst Hour 42	0.29	0.80	0.59	0.54	0	0	0	0	0
Fcst Hour 48	0.45	0.81	0.31	0.03	0	0	0	0	0
Total	0.95	1.99	2.38	2.77	2.39	1.46	0.97	0.28	0.06

 

That's brutal. Just brutal.

 

I actually remember that great January winter storm while living in Knightdale before I left for 8 years of Missouri.

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That's brutal. Just brutal.

 

I actually remember that great January winter storm while living in Knightdale before I left for 8 years of Missouri.

 

I can just imagine:

 

1.99" - Wow, this is going to be a memorable storm!  Repeat of Jan 2000!!!!! WOO!!!

 

2.38" - Wow, game-on!  SNOWMAGGEDON!!!

 

2.77" - Can we break 30"?!?!?!

 

2.39" - Still game-on... just some waffling.

 

1.46" - Still a major storm.  We're gonna get slammed!

 

0.97" - We can still be happy with our 6-10"... right?  :yikes:

 

0.28" -  :o  :lmao:

 

0.06" -  :axe:

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