Cold Rain Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 First time posting on here. Just wanted to say this is the best forum on here. I love reading the posts and trying to learn. Thanks everyone. Welcome to the board! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shack Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 First time posting on here. Just wanted to say this is the best forum on here. I love reading the posts and trying to learn. Thanks everyone. Welcome junebug! You know some of my kinfolk predict weather with junebugs. You might be valuable around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shack Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Macon's spread today will end up being at least 43 degrees! (28 to 71+). Delta probably is having trouble figuring out how to dress. Fantastic day, indeed! This morning had a super hard, snowstorm-looking, frost on the ground, and this afternoon I rode my sea-doo ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 First time posting on here. Just wanted to say this is the best forum on here. I love reading the posts and trying to learn. Thanks everyone. Welcome junebug! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Welcome junebug Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Welcome Junebug! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Bipolar board, looks good pattern change is gettin closer, wait the pattern change has stalled, ok it's getting closer, wait it's getting pushed back now. Lucy, Lucy lucy. Pattern change moving along like it should be, stalled out again, getting pushed back to the new year. hoe lee sheet Lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Do saw the Euro. Was a still possible snow not out of th question? I see what you did there. First time posting on here. Just wanted to say this is the best forum on here. I love reading the posts and trying to learn. Thanks everyone. Welcome aboard, junebug! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 The fact that the thread for this weekend's event in the mid-atlantic forum was started today at 4:26pm and is 2 pages and our thread is 10 pages started 2 days ago is so of us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 I really hope this time next month , we are sitting around and talking about all the snow stories and accounts of all the crazy winter weather we have had , with lots of pictures! I'm getting a little negative these days! Where is Brick, I need his thorough analysis of all these model runs, I'm sure he will be wide open tomorrow while at work. He'll be talking about appetizers and setting the table, and just bringing the knowledge ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 All this back and forth with things look good, oh it is close, may have to wait another week, but things are still on track is starting to drive me crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Just last week everyone was hounding a guy for a day ten thread....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 Wofford beat NCSU? That has to be some sort of epic upset!! Looks like Terriers could take down a Wolfpack! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Tonight's Euro run is gonna be Epic. Prepare for Glory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Tonight's Euro run is gonna be Epic. Prepare for Glory It will be epic for someone. Maybe not us, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I think after reading a post today on Facebook from Greg Fishel and one he made a few days so that it would be safe to say he would probably not be a fan of these weather boards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I think after reading a post today on Facebook from Greg Fishel and one he made a few days so that it would be safe to say he would probably not be a fan of these weather boards. He's the most conservative meteorologist I know in Carolinas. Watching him slowly crushing our dreams of snowstorm is painful at times, even though he's more likely correct than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 He's the most conservative meteorologist I know in Carolinas. Watching him slowly crushing our dreams of snowstorm is painful at times, even though he's more likely correct than not. That is just playing the odds, though, not really forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 He's the most conservative meteorologist I know in Carolinas. Watching him slowly crushing our dreams of snowstorm is painful at times, even though he's more likely correct than not. He was never the same after Dec 2000, since then he downplays everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Wofford beat NCSU? That has to be some sort of epic upset!! Looks like Terriers could take down a Wolfpack! In pretty typical NCSU form too. We had a buzzer beater that got reversed because it lost to the buzzer by .2 seconds. At least the panthers won Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 It will be epic for someone. Maybe not us, though. #Kentucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Wofford beat NCSU? That has to be some sort of epic upset!! Looks like Terriers could take down a Wolfpack! Heck, even my club team at UNCA beat Wofford in Ultimate Frisbee That is just playing the odds, though, not really forecasting. To be fair, his recent post is very reasonable why our odds are very low in Central NC. The storm we're expecting next week is in Pacific at this moment so we don't really have data on it. "I don't know" is the right approach if you're forecasting for a million of people. He was never the same after Dec 2000, since then he downplays everything. Which storm was it that month? December 2-3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 To be fair, his recent post is very reasonable why our odds are very low in Central NC. The storm we're expecting next week is in Pacific at this moment so we don't really have data on it. "I don't know" is the right approach if you're forecasting for a million of people. Which storm was it that month? December 2-3? I think it is more of the tone of his posts lately that seem to say don't believe anything you hear unless we're absolutely certain 24 hours out, and it isn't even worth discussing until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Which storm was it that month? December 2-3? Yeah, RDU was modeled to get 2"+ of QPF (all-snow) just a couple days prior to the storm, IIRC. They got a trace while the coastal plain was pounded. IIRC, even out here in GSO we were supposed to get pounded a few days before. Van Denton refers to it as our "foot of sunshine" storm. Everyone was pretty gung-ho on another beastly storm since we had just gotten destroyed in January 2000. EDIT: Yeah, here's the ETA data for RDU. I'd be melting down: ETA Fous data 12/01/00 12/02/00 12/0200 12/0200 12/0200 12/03/00 12/03/00 12/03/00 12/03/00 18Z 00Z 06Z 12Z 18Z 00Z 06Z 12Z 18Z Fcst Hour 00 0 0 0 0.04 0.11 0.06 0.09 0.11 0.06 Fcst Hour 12 0 0 0 0.14 0.25 0.24 0.26 0.17 0 Fcst Hour 18 0 0 0.12 0.27 0.44 0.21 0.46 0 0 Fcst Hour 24 0 0 0.37 0.38 0.53 0.73 0.16 0 0 Fcst Hour 30 0.01 0.07 0.51 0.63 0.53 0.22 0 0 0 Fcst Hour 36 0.20 0.31 0.47 0.74 0.53 0 0 0 0 Fcst Hour 42 0.29 0.80 0.59 0.54 0 0 0 0 0 Fcst Hour 48 0.45 0.81 0.31 0.03 0 0 0 0 0 Total 0.95 1.99 2.38 2.77 2.39 1.46 0.97 0.28 0.06 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Man, there are some strong signs, though, for something good between Christmas and the new year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Yeah, RDU was modeled to get 2"+ of QPF (all-snow) just a couple days prior to the storm, IIRC. They got a trace while the coastal plain was pounded. IIRC, even out here in GSO we were supposed to get pounded a few days before. Van Denton refers to it as our "foot of sunshine" storm. Everyone was pretty gung-ho on another beastly storm since we had just gotten destroyed in January 2000. EDIT: Yeah, here's the ETA data for RDU. I'd be melting down: ETA Fous data 12/01/00 12/02/00 12/0200 12/0200 12/0200 12/03/00 12/03/00 12/03/00 12/03/00 18Z 00Z 06Z 12Z 18Z 00Z 06Z 12Z 18Z Fcst Hour 00 0 0 0 0.04 0.11 0.06 0.09 0.11 0.06 Fcst Hour 12 0 0 0 0.14 0.25 0.24 0.26 0.17 0 Fcst Hour 18 0 0 0.12 0.27 0.44 0.21 0.46 0 0 Fcst Hour 24 0 0 0.37 0.38 0.53 0.73 0.16 0 0 Fcst Hour 30 0.01 0.07 0.51 0.63 0.53 0.22 0 0 0 Fcst Hour 36 0.20 0.31 0.47 0.74 0.53 0 0 0 0 Fcst Hour 42 0.29 0.80 0.59 0.54 0 0 0 0 0 Fcst Hour 48 0.45 0.81 0.31 0.03 0 0 0 0 0 Total 0.95 1.99 2.38 2.77 2.39 1.46 0.97 0.28 0.06 I guess that was payback since the Jan 2000 storm wasn't supposed to do anything just a few hours before it started. They were changing things when the snow actually started falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Well, last week everyone was saying we would look good around Christmas. Now we're saying wait another week. I don't like hearing that. I am trying to remain optimistic because there has never been this much consensus on the boards and other places from mets about having a big winter here. But it is gong to be hard to remain that way if we start playing the game of pushing it back a week every week. I told you this a few days ago and you said something about a Legion of gloom or something in GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 Will be spending three days in Pigeon Forge having an old fashioned Dollywood holiday celebration 12/28-12/30. Can't wait to be at an amusement park with some snow or cold, good times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Yeah, RDU was modeled to get 2"+ of QPF (all-snow) just a couple days prior to the storm, IIRC. They got a trace while the coastal plain was pounded. IIRC, even out here in GSO we were supposed to get pounded a few days before. Van Denton refers to it as our "foot of sunshine" storm. Everyone was pretty gung-ho on another beastly storm since we had just gotten destroyed in January 2000. EDIT: Yeah, here's the ETA data for RDU. I'd be melting down: ETA Fous data 12/01/00 12/02/00 12/0200 12/0200 12/0200 12/03/00 12/03/00 12/03/00 12/03/00 18Z 00Z 06Z 12Z 18Z 00Z 06Z 12Z 18Z Fcst Hour 00 0 0 0 0.04 0.11 0.06 0.09 0.11 0.06 Fcst Hour 12 0 0 0 0.14 0.25 0.24 0.26 0.17 0 Fcst Hour 18 0 0 0.12 0.27 0.44 0.21 0.46 0 0 Fcst Hour 24 0 0 0.37 0.38 0.53 0.73 0.16 0 0 Fcst Hour 30 0.01 0.07 0.51 0.63 0.53 0.22 0 0 0 Fcst Hour 36 0.20 0.31 0.47 0.74 0.53 0 0 0 0 Fcst Hour 42 0.29 0.80 0.59 0.54 0 0 0 0 0 Fcst Hour 48 0.45 0.81 0.31 0.03 0 0 0 0 0 Total 0.95 1.99 2.38 2.77 2.39 1.46 0.97 0.28 0.06 That's brutal. Just brutal. I actually remember that great January winter storm while living in Knightdale before I left for 8 years of Missouri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 That's brutal. Just brutal. I actually remember that great January winter storm while living in Knightdale before I left for 8 years of Missouri. I can just imagine: 1.99" - Wow, this is going to be a memorable storm! Repeat of Jan 2000!!!!! WOO!!! 2.38" - Wow, game-on! SNOWMAGGEDON!!! 2.77" - Can we break 30"?!?!?! 2.39" - Still game-on... just some waffling. 1.46" - Still a major storm. We're gonna get slammed! 0.97" - We can still be happy with our 6-10"... right? 0.28" - 0.06" - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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