Brick Tamland Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 No it wasn't, I've been bullish about this winter all along like most people. I'm still optimistic but it's obviously my opinion that we are getting a late start. Going to need a cold tap, there isn't one now, or one modeled in the next 10 days on any guidance. We wait while met winter is evaporating little by little...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Hopefully Jan and Feb delivers Don't be confused, both of those comments can be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Both GFS ENS and Canadian ENS look GREAT for a pattern change at Christmas at 384!! What's the chance either of them verify? Somebody keep track to see if they have the same look tomorrow at 360... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Both GFS ENS and Canadian ENS look GREAT for a pattern change at Christmas at 384!! What's the chance either of them verify? Somebody keep track to see if they have the same look tomorrow at 360... Add the Euro EPS as a great look at day 15. It's been stuck at day 15 for a few days now, it will get there...just maybe not this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Add the Euro EPS as a great look at day 15. It's been stuck at day 15 for a few days now, it will get there...just maybe not this year.lol it starts about day 11-12. It has been delayed a day or two. The look on today's ensembles have improved over previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Feeling good about everything as we head into the second half of December, the energy on the board has really shifted into the good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 10, 2014 Author Share Posted December 10, 2014 Hopefully Jan and Feb delivers Don't be confused, both of those comments can be correct.Sadly , in 12 days , the days get longer and we will have to worry the dreaded sun angle, winter cancel!! . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Sadly , in 12 days , the days get longer and we will have to worry the dreaded sun angle, winter cancel!! . If we don't get snow by the Solstice, I'm canceling winter. Any snow that falls after the Solstice turns to fire due to the blistering sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 If we don't get snow by the Solstice, I'm canceling winter. Any snow that falls after the Solstice turns to fire due to the blistering sun angle. and by a miracle if it did stick, that blistering sun angle reflecting off the snow will blind anyone without protective eye gear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 For anyone looking at the GFS parallel for 300hr+ forecasts, this is my response Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 When we can't even get fantasy land snow you know the pattern sucks. When you are saying the trend is you're friend on a 15 day prog it's safe to say the pattern sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 When we can't even get fantasy land snow you know the pattern sucks. When you are saying the trend is you're friend on a 15 day prog it's safe to say the pattern sucks. Worry not. Don't lose your faith. The mild Dec. analogs (Cohen, Webber, Griteater, 1939-40, etc.) will make sure we get to the Promised Land. Regarding snow or ice in, say GA, it shall be included says the analogs. But that may very well have to wait til January for anything too significant per climo though there have been three major ZR's on Christmas in ATL interestingly enough! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 We are all doomed. (CNN) -- Imagine being able to predict when the flu might strike your town, a bit like how meteorologists predict when a storm is heading your way. Think about what companies or hospitals or even you could do to prepare. That's exactly what infectious disease experts at Columbia University's Mailman School of Public Health are doing. They've figured out a way to forecast the flu. Their model is a huge advance, as most current models mapping the flu look backward instead of forward. The team won a contest sponsored by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention called "Predict the deadlyInfluenza Season Challenge." To win, the team created a mathematical formula used for weather forecasting and applied it to flu data. Using real-time data they created a website that shows an interactive map of the United States that displays the severity of flu cases in cities across the country. It also lists incidence numbers and gives a prediction number for each city in the coming weeks. They also have a forecast graphic that will tell you when the flu will be at its peak for a particular city. It varies across the country. For instance, in New York City, it predicts the height of the flu will be the week of January 10. Atlanta's will be around December 27. Chicago's will be the week of December 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 I can say that the cold and flu season in at least GA has been quite bad already based on so many people I know (including myself) having gotten sick, some twice! My niece got the flu but it wasn't due to one protected by the flu shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Sure our tax dollars are on a leash to this flu forecasting sharade via grant or some avenue. Gotta love it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Worry not. Don't lose your faith. The mild Dec. analogs (Cohen, Webber, Griteater, 1939-40, etc.) will make sure we get to the Promised Land. Regarding snow or ice in, say GA, it shall be included says the analogs. But that may very well have to wait til January for anything too significant per climo though there have been three major ZR's on Christmas in ATL interestingly enough! Man, I hope so. It's hard to look at all the great winter forecasts that were out in October only to witness most if not all of a met winter month playing the waiting game. I get that El Niño winters can start late but.... We could be getting snow and ice storms right now if the pattern would cooperate. It's really a waste of a perfectly good winter month. When I say wall to wall Winter is off the table this is the thing I'm speaking of. One big storm this season would make us missing out on december fine. But it has to be in the back of everyone's mind even the folks with the strongest nerves that hey, the clock IS ticking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Sure our tax dollars are on a leash to this flu forecasting sharade via grant or some avenue. Gotta love it! Just imagine. Well the 10 day US flu model says I will be fine, but the Euro has me on a respirator by day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 I heard the pattern change to less flu cases keeps getting pushed back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 11, 2014 Author Share Posted December 11, 2014 Man, I hope so. It's hard to look at all the great winter forecasts that were out in October only to witness most if not all of a met winter month playing the waiting game. I get that El Niño winters can start late but.... We could be getting snow and ice storms right now if the pattern would cooperate. It's really a waste of a perfectly good winter month. When I say wall to wall Winter is off the table this is the thing I'm speaking of. One big storm this season would make us missing out on december fine. But it has to be in the back of everyone's mind even the folks with the strongest nerves that hey, the clock IS ticking. I think it's been stated like 1000 times that we are not wasting anything in December ! Greater than 90% of snow and ice events have happened in JFM, in my area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Man, I hope so. It's hard to look at all the great winter forecasts that were out in October only to witness most if not all of a met winter month playing the waiting game. I get that El Niño winters can start late but.... We could be getting snow and ice storms right now if the pattern would cooperate. It's really a waste of a perfectly good winter month. When I say wall to wall Winter is off the table this is the thing I'm speaking of. One big storm this season would make us missing out on december fine. But it has to be in the back of everyone's mind even the folks with the strongest nerves that hey, the clock IS ticking. I know we had snow in December 1997. Wasn't that an el Nino winter ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 I think it's been stated like 1000 times that we are not wasting anything in December ! Greater than 90% of snow and ice events have happened in JFM, in my area! more snow in March than December ? December is wayyyyyy colder than March and it's not even close. Is there not a correlation between average temps in a given month and snow ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 11, 2014 Author Share Posted December 11, 2014 more snow in March than December ? December is wayyyyyy colder than March and it's not even close. Is there not a correlation between average temps in a given month and snow ?Proven fact. Way more snow in March than December , in the Carolinas, can't speak on GA. I think a top 3 all time snow has happened in NC in Mar. ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Proven fact. Way more snow in March than December , in the Carolinas, can't speak on GA. I think a top 3 all time snow has happened in NC in Mar. ! I think Atlanta's biggest snow in the last 60 years occurred in late March, but up until the last 5 years March snows occurred maybe once every 10 years.Its just amazing to think that there's more snow in early March than late December, considering late December is almost in the heart of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Here you go, monthly snowfall breakdown. I remember more March than Dec storms. https://www.sercc.com/climateinfo/historical/avgsnowfall.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Proven fact. Way more snow in March than December , in the Carolinas, can't speak on GA. I think a top 3 all time snow has happened in NC in Mar. ! It's like people get amnesia every year huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 When we can't even get fantasy land snow you know the pattern sucks. When you are saying the trend is you're friend on a 15 day prog it's safe to say the pattern sucks. You are the only one being negative while the mood on the pattern thread is very positive right now. You say you are bullish about this winter, but then you keep saying the clock is ticking and winter is wasting away. It doesn't make sense. We're not even in the second half of December yet, and you have been like this since November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Proven fact. Way more snow in March than December , in the Carolinas, can't speak on GA. I think a top 3 all time snow has happened in NC in Mar. ! Since 2000 we have had more snow in December and January than February and March in the Triangle. The past couple of years February has been good, but March snow here has been about nonexistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Proven fact. Way more snow in March than December , in the Carolinas, can't speak on GA. I think a top 3 all time snow has happened in NC in Mar. ! lol For the most part, the difference between December and March is measured in tenths of an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 11, 2014 Author Share Posted December 11, 2014 lol For the most part, the difference between December and March is measured in tenths of an inch.Tenths of an inch can mean alot to some people! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 Tenths of an inch can mean alot to some people! That's the saddest post of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.