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December Banter


mackerel_sky

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Analog cold is the best! It looks pretty with all the blue colors, but it doesn't actually make your heating bill go up!

I jest, of course. But in all seriousness, one thing that I was wondering, did the best fit analogs show a cold December and a -AO December? Or we're they warm? Mixed? I can't remember. All the recent discussion of them seems to point to sometime in Jan before the real fun starts.

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I asked the NWS on Facebook about the bright-banding. They gave a nice detailed answer, though I think they assumed I knew relatively little about weather. They aren't entirely wrong...

They answered the crap out of your question. I hadn't even considered that the returns might be bright banding. I wasn't under it getting light rain, so I just assumed it was heavy rain.

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They answered the crap out of your question. I hadn't even considered that the returns might be bright banding. I wasn't under it getting light rain, so I just assumed it was heavy rain.

There was moderate rain with occasional large drops. Definitely melted snowflakes. The snowflakes were probably the size of dinner plates somewhere way over my head... Figures.

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There was moderate rain with occasional large drops. Definitely melted snowflakes. The snowflakes were probably the size of dinner plates somewhere way over my head... Figures.

Haha! I did notice when I left work today that the drops were fairly large, but I hadn't checked the radar. Maybe soon we can get those dinner plates to the ground.

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Analog cold is the best! It looks pretty with all the blue colors, but it doesn't actually make your heating bill go up!

I jest, of course. But in all seriousness, one thing that I was wondering, did the best fit analogs show a cold December and a -AO December? Or we're they warm? Mixed? I can't remember. All the recent discussion of them seems to point to sometime in Jan before the real fun starts.

The timeframe will continuously keep getting pushed back.
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Analog cold is the best! It looks pretty with all the blue colors, but it doesn't actually make your heating bill go up!

I jest, of course. But in all seriousness, one thing that I was wondering, did the best fit analogs show a cold December and a -AO December? Or we're they warm? Mixed? I can't remember. All the recent discussion of them seems to point to sometime in Jan before the real fun starts.

I bet if you plot all the +ENSO/+PDO you get a warm Dec across the conus/Canada and cold Jan/Dec.

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I bet if you plot all the +ENSO/+PDO you get a warm Dec across the conus/Canada and cold Jan/Dec.

I don't know why I was expecting a colder December this year. Probably just not understanding the research well. I was thinking that due to the warm neutral Niño and the preceding -AO, December would be colder instead of straight Niño climo. False. Haha!

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I was wondering if it was just me, or has the pattern change been looking great at the end of every run for about 2 weeks now?

Ikr. And what is this talk of an active southern stream.

How is this an active southern stream? Or an El nino?

www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/sercc/MonthPNormSERCC.png

www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/sercc/MonthTDeptSERCC.png

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I don't know why I was expecting a colder December this year. Probably just not understanding the research well. I was thinking that due to the warm neutral Niño and the preceding -AO, December would be colder instead of straight Niño climo. False. Haha!

 

Here you go...here is every ENSO (+0.3 and higher) with a  PDO (+0.5 and higher)...

post-2311-0-33319200-1418173851_thumb.pn

post-2311-0-21316400-1418173852_thumb.pn

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Thanks Pack. Definitely encouraging. That top map is nice!

 

I know a lot of mets that put out seasonal forecasts that weren't sure of what December would bring.  I posted earlier today the analogs of the neutral/+AO Decembers that were +ENSO/+PDO and it was textbook perfect Jan/Feb for us.  But...now that I just jinxed us!

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I think some CSS/template editing is needed so when people quote huge posts/images... it knocks it back a bit.  I used a custom css to hide images in the quote boxes totally (after trying a simple resize).. and truncated the comment text length on an old website.

 

Might would work out pretty well here instead of relying on people to edit the images out of quotes etc.  This forum software itself probably has it built in or a plugin too.

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Ikr. And what is this talk of an active southern stream.

How is this an active southern stream? Or an El nino?

www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/sercc/MonthPNormSERCC.png

www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/sercc/MonthTDeptSERCC.png

 

Metal - the active southern stream isn't anything that has happened to date...it's the wave pattern showing up next week.  Split flow with one storm next Tues and another next Saturday on the Euro Ens.  Who knows how much rainfall will occur at any given location, but it's the wave pattern next week that looks good and would offer promise later in the winter if sync-ed with cold air

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They answered the crap out of your question. I hadn't even considered that the returns might be bright banding. I wasn't under it getting light rain, so I just assumed it was heavy rain.

What really prompted me to ask was that the rain really wasn't that heavy at the ground. Just by looking out the window, I would have expected moderate green.
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