Cold Rain Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 I told myself that Id never believe in analog cold again after february 2002. Haha I think we've been had! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Analog cold is the best! It looks pretty with all the blue colors, but it doesn't actually make your heating bill go up! I jest, of course. But in all seriousness, one thing that I was wondering, did the best fit analogs show a cold December and a -AO December? Or we're they warm? Mixed? I can't remember. All the recent discussion of them seems to point to sometime in Jan before the real fun starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Awesome overperformer today.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Awesome overperformer today.. I literally just picked up the phone to post that! Still raining here, at a decent clip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 I asked the NWS on Facebook about the bright-banding. They gave a nice detailed answer, though I think they assumed I knew relatively little about weather. They aren't entirely wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 I asked the NWS on Facebook about the bright-banding. They gave a nice detailed answer, though I think they assumed I knew relatively little about weather. They aren't entirely wrong... They answered the crap out of your question. I hadn't even considered that the returns might be bright banding. I wasn't under it getting light rain, so I just assumed it was heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 They answered the crap out of your question. I hadn't even considered that the returns might be bright banding. I wasn't under it getting light rain, so I just assumed it was heavy rain. There was moderate rain with occasional large drops. Definitely melted snowflakes. The snowflakes were probably the size of dinner plates somewhere way over my head... Figures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 There was moderate rain with occasional large drops. Definitely melted snowflakes. The snowflakes were probably the size of dinner plates somewhere way over my head... Figures. Haha! I did notice when I left work today that the drops were fairly large, but I hadn't checked the radar. Maybe soon we can get those dinner plates to the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Analog cold is the best! It looks pretty with all the blue colors, but it doesn't actually make your heating bill go up! I jest, of course. But in all seriousness, one thing that I was wondering, did the best fit analogs show a cold December and a -AO December? Or we're they warm? Mixed? I can't remember. All the recent discussion of them seems to point to sometime in Jan before the real fun starts. The timeframe will continuously keep getting pushed back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 The timeframe will continuously keep getting pushed back. How are things in the crossway? You guys above normal or below for the month so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Analog cold is the best! It looks pretty with all the blue colors, but it doesn't actually make your heating bill go up! I jest, of course. But in all seriousness, one thing that I was wondering, did the best fit analogs show a cold December and a -AO December? Or we're they warm? Mixed? I can't remember. All the recent discussion of them seems to point to sometime in Jan before the real fun starts. I bet if you plot all the +ENSO/+PDO you get a warm Dec across the conus/Canada and cold Jan/Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 10, 2014 Author Share Posted December 10, 2014 The timeframe will continuously keep getting pushed back.I was wondering if it was just me, or has the pattern change been looking great at the end of every run for about 2 weeks now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 How are things in the crossway? You guys above normal or below for the month so far?+11 currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 I bet if you plot all the +ENSO/+PDO you get a warm Dec across the conus/Canada and cold Jan/Dec. I don't know why I was expecting a colder December this year. Probably just not understanding the research well. I was thinking that due to the warm neutral Niño and the preceding -AO, December would be colder instead of straight Niño climo. False. Haha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 +11 currently. Seriously?? That is definitely a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 I was wondering if it was just me, or has the pattern change been looking great at the end of every run for about 2 weeks now?Ikr. And what is this talk of an active southern stream.How is this an active southern stream? Or an El nino? www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/sercc/MonthPNormSERCC.png www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/sercc/MonthTDeptSERCC.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Seriously?? That is definitely a torch.Yeah.It's going to drop quite a bit though after this week. Highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Yeah.It's going to drop quite a bit though after this week. Highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s. Yeah that should bring it down some fo sho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 I don't know why I was expecting a colder December this year. Probably just not understanding the research well. I was thinking that due to the warm neutral Niño and the preceding -AO, December would be colder instead of straight Niño climo. False. Haha! Here you go...here is every ENSO (+0.3 and higher) with a PDO (+0.5 and higher)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Thanks Pack. Definitely encouraging. That top map is nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Thanks Pack. Definitely encouraging. That top map is nice! I know a lot of mets that put out seasonal forecasts that weren't sure of what December would bring. I posted earlier today the analogs of the neutral/+AO Decembers that were +ENSO/+PDO and it was textbook perfect Jan/Feb for us. But...now that I just jinxed us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Pack, I can barely remember the details of 02 but it was one of the biggest busts I can ever remember. Almost every single met was calling for historic cold and snow and well, you saw what happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 I think some CSS/template editing is needed so when people quote huge posts/images... it knocks it back a bit. I used a custom css to hide images in the quote boxes totally (after trying a simple resize).. and truncated the comment text length on an old website. Might would work out pretty well here instead of relying on people to edit the images out of quotes etc. This forum software itself probably has it built in or a plugin too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Ikr. And what is this talk of an active southern stream. How is this an active southern stream? Or an El nino? www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/sercc/MonthPNormSERCC.png www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/sercc/MonthTDeptSERCC.png Metal - the active southern stream isn't anything that has happened to date...it's the wave pattern showing up next week. Split flow with one storm next Tues and another next Saturday on the Euro Ens. Who knows how much rainfall will occur at any given location, but it's the wave pattern next week that looks good and would offer promise later in the winter if sync-ed with cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 I just read thru webbers latest post... I think I need to stick my head in ice, my brain is overheating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 I just read thru webbers latest post... I think I need to stick my head in ice, my brain is overheating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 They answered the crap out of your question. I hadn't even considered that the returns might be bright banding. I wasn't under it getting light rain, so I just assumed it was heavy rain.What really prompted me to ask was that the rain really wasn't that heavy at the ground. Just by looking out the window, I would have expected moderate green. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Hey y'all, No matter the weather! Guess what!! http://youtu.be/9jQy_ppY2bI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 10, 2014 Author Share Posted December 10, 2014 I'm all about that bass, no treble ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 10, 2014 Share Posted December 10, 2014 Hey y'all, No matter the weather! Guess what!! http://youtu.be/9jQy_ppY2bI Also, no matter the weather, "enjoy the weather cause it's the only weather you got." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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