JoshM Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Let's all just go at it ROFL http://youtu.be/KY5Ug1OW5O4?t=5m25s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 How do you make a youtube vid show as a video in a post instead of a link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Let's all just go at it ROFL http://youtu.be/KY5Ug1OW5O4?t=5m25s Do ya feel lucky punk? Well, do ya? Just so no one misses this, because the hammer is about to come down in the model thread. Ok. I tried to address this nicely earlier. Lets try a different approach. I am close to giving more than one person a 5 day break. This constant bickering in this thread must stop now. If you end up getting a time out and IM me to b**ch about it, I'll double it. There has been more than fair warning, and I don't intend on dealing with this crap for the entire winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 How do you make a youtube vid show as a video in a post instead of a link? You can't when you start it at a certain time frame (not that I know of) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 You can't when you start it at a certain time frame (not that I know of) Hmmmm....I though you could do it some day. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 The silver lining is IT WILL BE A DIFFERENT PATTERN THAN THE BS PATTERN WE HAVE NOW. How can you not be excited over a coming pattern change No one said it will be perfect or a good winter pattern . But it's better than what we have now and will put us closer to what we want. Damn I'm starting to think you would be upset with a 6 inch snowfall with temps in the mid 30s that melts by dinner...... Good lord I would, I bitched about the Christmas 2010 storm becuse it snowed all day but didn't stick due to BL temps. If I lived in the NE my posts would probably look like ji's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 We need good ole Al Sleet on here :-D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 7, 2014 Author Share Posted December 7, 2014 Hmmmm....I though you could do it some day. Oh well. You can't post anything from America's first flip phone! . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 You can't post anything from America's first flip phone! . Haha! It's a 3rd gen, thank you very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Haha! It's a 3rd gen, thank you very much. I can't even use mine... damn thing would never get a dial tone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 You can't post anything from America's first flip phone! . Lolz in all seriousness CR you should be able to just post the link into the text box. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Weather prediction is some serious bidness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 We should do a conference call once a week where we can get it all out of our system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Lolz in all seriousness CR you should be able to just post the link into the text box. Thanks man. That's what I remembered doing a long time ago and it worked. The other day, I did it, and it appeared as just a link. I'll try it again another time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 How do you make a youtube vid show as a video in a post instead of a link? In YouTube, with the video you want to use displayed, click on share. A funky looking link will appear highlighted in a box. Copy and past that link directly into your post here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Grrrr!!!! Winter Pattern Thread...I'm shaking my head at the wreckage. That was not a healthy discussion. Too negative with the tone. Weenies should stick to reading and learning. Otherwise it's like bringing a butter knife to a gun fight. It looks silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 That was actually a pretty good discussion. Mariettawx has his opinion on what will happen and everyone else has their opinions. Marietta is probably focusing on Ga and everyone else on NC. A "good pattern" for the SE(North Carolina) might suck for us, well definitely me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 0z GFS dry as a martini + normal temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 That was actually a pretty good discussion. Mariettawx has his opinion on what will happen and everyone else has their opinions. Marietta is probably focusing on Ga and everyone else on NC. A "good pattern" for the SE(North Carolina) might suck for us, well definitely me. I'm not sure there's a lot of comprehension of what's being said in the pattern thread. Mostly, folks have maintained that after this crap period, a much better step toward a really good pattern is now being picked up on by the models, which is a stark change from a few days ago. I don't think anyone is saying that it will immediately change to a cold and snowy pattern next week. On the other hand, the counter argument seems to be that the upcoming pattern after this crap pattern is also crap. If you define patterns in a binary way: Snow pattern = Good and Nom-snow pattern = Bad, then ok. But if you think a change toward a snow pattern is a good thing, then there's no reason not to be satisfied that we are moving in the right direction, assuming the pattern evolves as the guidance has shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 GT can win. I think there is good chance the GT will crush FSU. Negative Champs again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 7, 2014 Author Share Posted December 7, 2014 Man we can't buy a break! The typhoon that was going to be the kick start to ssw and the great winter pattern, took a left turn!! Not only did it not recurve, it recurved the wrong way! Maybe it will dislodge the polar vortex from the South Pole !!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 I'm not sure there's a lot of comprehension of what's being said in the pattern thread. Mostly, folks have maintained that after this crap period, a much better step toward a really good pattern is now being picked up on by the models, which is a stark change from a few days ago. I don't think anyone is saying that it will immediately change to a cold and snowy pattern next week. On the other hand, the counter argument seems to be that the upcoming pattern after this crap pattern is also crap. If you define patterns in a binary way: Snow pattern = Good and Nom-snow pattern = Bad, then ok. But if you think a change toward a snow pattern is a good thing, then there's no reason not to be satisfied that we are moving in the right direction, assuming the pattern evolves as the guidance has shown. CR, Well put! There's no Q IMO that things have accelerated in the right direction vs. what the models showed Fri morning and in the direction that analogs have been suggesting for ~12/20. Also, even the period til 12/20 looks no warmer than near normal and there are some chilly days coming. From this point forward, the torch looks to be done other than perhaps a few days here or there (if any) if the models are accurate. As you know, actually being in a pattern that could actually produce wintry precip. is not easy to accomplish, especially down in the nonmountainous parts of GA (vs most of NC) in most winters. Even during great winters, most of DJF won't be in prime wintry precip. mode in GA and much of the SE as much of it would be a dry cold since Arctic air, itself, is pretty dry by nature. However, the important thing is to get the cold pattern to return. Once that is back, we could look for those few times a winter for something possibly special. As I've said, I am expecting at least one of the extra special things (major SN, IP, or ZR ) this winter in Atlanta with the nontrivial chance for two of them along with a total of at least three measurable events. One can't reasonably ask for much better than that in Atlanta. Knowing climo will allow one to realize that and keep expectations under control. I remain as excited as ever about the potential! A memorable winter could be on our doorstep. But again, one needs to keep their perspective reasonable as far as what constitutes memorable winters in much of the SE. If an Atlantan or even a Triadian is going to use, say, what DC gets as a comparison, they are often going to be disappointed even in a great winter. The bulk of the nonmountainous SE will never be anything like the MidAtlantic in the vast majority of winters. Keep focused on your own climo rather than the climo of an area much further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 I'm not sure there's a lot of comprehension of what's being said in the pattern thread. Mostly, folks have maintained that after this crap period, a much better step toward a really good pattern is now being picked up on by the models, which is a stark change from a few days ago. I don't think anyone is saying that it will immediately change to a cold and snowy pattern next week. On the other hand, the counter argument seems to be that the upcoming pattern after this crap pattern is also crap. If you define patterns in a binary way: Snow pattern = Good and Nom-snow pattern = Bad, then ok. But if you think a change toward a snow pattern is a good thing, then there's no reason not to be satisfied that we are moving in the right direction, assuming the pattern evolves as the guidance has shown. Well in his defense we also can't sit there and say the LR is crap and can't be trusted....then when it starts showing signs of changes say it's to be trusted. Not sure is saying that 100% but I could see how it can be frustrating watching people who just a week ago said not to trust the LR modeling (I'm talking about me here) and then coming around saying the models could be sniffing something out. My problem is the same problem that comes up constantly. There seem to be folks who want this to be 100% scientific discussion with no feelings or intuition involved. For those, this is the wrong forum. Best to go to a college course or something more professional. I don't come here for pure scientific discussions. I come here due to my passion for wanting snow, so I'm perfectly fine letting that sometimes override the limited chances. Call it cognitive dissonance or whatever but that is what often makes this forum fun. Let's face it even when a model latches on to a super bomb it's not likely to happen but we all stick around for that 1% chance that it will happen. If we all assumed it wasn't going to happen this place would be no fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 CR, Well put! There's no Q IMO that things have accelerated in the right direction vs. what the models showed Fri morning and in the direction that analogs have been suggesting for ~12/20. Also, even the period til 12/20 looks no warmer than near normal and there are some chilly days coming. From this point forward, the torch looks to be done other than perhaps a few days here or there (if any) if the models are accurate. As you know, actually being in a pattern that could actually produce wintry precip. is not easy to accomplish, especially down in the nonmountainous parts of GA (vs most of NC) in most winters. Even during great winters, most of DJF won't be in prime wintry precip. mode in GA and much of the SE as much of it would be a dry cold since Arctic air, itself, is pretty dry by nature. However, the important thing is to get the cold pattern to return. Once that is back, we could look for those few times a winter for something possibly special. As I've said, I am expecting at least one of the extra special things (major SN, IP, or ZR ) this winter in Atlanta with the nontrivial chance for two of them along with a total of at least three measurable events. One can't reasonably ask for much better than that in Atlanta. Knowing climo will allow one to realize that and keep expectations under control. I remain as excited as ever about the potential! A memorable winter could be on our doorstep. But again, one needs to keep their perspective reasonable as far as what constitutes memorable winters in much of the SE. Interestingly enough, 09/10 was much better for GA than many parts of NC. This will probably be one of those years as well. We get great tracks for big snows tracking from ATL to CAE to ILM....just would not surprise me at all given the analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Interestingly enough, 09/10 was much better for GA than many parts of NC. This will probably be one of those years as well. We get great tracks for big snows tracking from ATL to CAE to ILM....just would not surprise me at all given the analogs. Anomalywise, I agree with you about 09-10 as well as the potential for 14-15. I think N GA is quite possibly going to be one of the best performers vs normal in 14-15 (quite possibly including ZR). If things fall into place like I expect, this COULD be one of those rare winters where KATL gets, say for example, 8" for the season (400% of climo) vs., say, 12" in RDU (200% of climo) (in addition to possibly sig ZR). Or, say, 5" for KATL (250%) vs 9" for KRDU (150%) plus maybe sig ZR. These are the kinds of things that analogs suggest would be realistic possibilities. Related to this, analogs suggest that the SE as a whole could easily obliterate the NE anomaly %wise. See 1939-40, for example. Whereas many of the NE areas were only near the 100-125% range, much of the inland SE got 200-400%. Of course, NYC-Boston's 100-125% is still much higher than the SE's 200-400%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 7, 2014 Author Share Posted December 7, 2014 Negative Champs again! Did they have crablegs to celebrate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Did they have crablegs to celebrate?Man that's original...lol.We had gator tail, tiger ribs, cardinal on crackers, Irish whiskey, a side of wolf and chocolate covered yelled jackets! Champions meal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 7, 2014 Author Share Posted December 7, 2014 Man that's original...lol. We had gator tail, tiger ribs, cardinal on crackers, Irish whiskey, a side of wolf and chocolate covered yelled jackets! Champions meal! Couldn't resist! Congrats to them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Man that's original...lol. We had gator tail, tiger ribs, cardinal on crackers, Irish whiskey, a side of wolf and chocolate covered yelled jackets! Champions meal! Coming from a Clemson fan. Congrats. Go win it all.Dalvin Cook is a stud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Well in his defense we also can't sit there and say the LR is crap and can't be trusted....then when it starts showing signs of changes say it's to be trusted. Not sure is saying that 100% but I could see how it can be frustrating watching people who just a week ago said not to trust the LR modeling (I'm talking about me here) and then coming around saying the models could be sniffing something out. My problem is the same problem that comes up constantly. There seem to be folks who want this to be 100% scientific discussion with no feelings or intuition involved. For those, this is the wrong forum. Best to go to a college course or something more professional. I don't come here for pure scientific discussions. I come here due to my passion for wanting snow, so I'm perfectly fine letting that sometimes override the limited chances. Call it cognitive dissonance or whatever but that is what often makes this forum fun. Let's face it even when a model latches on to a super bomb it's not likely to happen but we all stick around for that 1% chance that it will happen. If we all assumed it wasn't going to happen this place would be no fun. Burger and Larry, good posts. One thing I will add is that I wouldn't just classify a LR forecast by a model as crap, out of hand. If it's projection follows a known bias, then maybe so. If it has not support from other guidance, them maybe so. But if what it is showing makes sense in the overall context of the expected seasonal projection, and if it has support from other models and ensembles, then it should be given due consideration, whether it's showing warm or cold. I was somewhat discourage the other day because I couldn't see a medium term step down to a better pattern. Now, there seems to be building support for such a change, so I'm less restless about it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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