Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 To all of you crying about some warm days in December, please tell me all the years it has been wall to wall cold in the SE (ESPECIALLY freaking Ga.). I'll hang up and listen. winter of 2009-10 came pretty close to having wall to wall coldI think all the cold weather we had in November plus all the forecasts for a cold winter has people frustrated that December is shaping up to be so mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Does the south in General have a larger % of days above normal than areas up north ? If so, why ? Sorry but I think you're trolling here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Does the south in General have a larger % of days above normal than areas up north ? If so, why ? No. Every locale will have, on average, 50% of its days below normal and 50% of its days above normal. That's kinda what makes it average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Sorry but I think you're trolling here.. no . That was a serious question. Are areas of the south more prone to having a larger number of days above normal in the winter than areas up north ?It also seems like some areas of the country are more prone to having larger departures from normal. I've seen times when its 40 degrees below normal in some areas. You don't see that often in the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 no . That was a serious question. Are areas of the south more prone to having a larger number of days above normal in the winter than areas up north ? It also seems like some areas of the country are more prone to having larger departures from normal. I've seen times when its 40 degrees below normal in some areas. You don't see that often in the south. Yep, there's more variation up and down up north. (higehr variance/standard deviation) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 winter of 2009-10 came pretty close to having wall to wall cold I think all the cold weather we had in November plus all the forecasts for a cold winter has people frustrated that December is shaping up to be so mild. Even though it was pretty much wall to wall cold winter, 2009-10 still had at least 20% of its days warmer than normal at ATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 2009-10 had at least 20% of its days warmer than normal at ATL. that = 6 days how many were back to back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Even though it was pretty much wall to wall winter, 2009-10 still had at least 20% of its days warmer than normal at ATL. 20% isn't really that much. Assuming the first 14 days of December are all above normal, thats already 15% of winter that is warmer than normal.I really dont mind above normal days in the winter. What I can't stand is LONG stretches of above normal weather. 10+ days of above normal is too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 that = 6 days how many were back to back? 20%+ of the 90 DJF days. So, at least 18 days and it may be more. I'm now going off memory. I counted for all winters going back to 1929-30 and found no one winter had fewer than 18 days that were warmer than normal at KATL. Edit: I went back and did find one winter had fewer than I had thought: 14 instead of 18 (1963-4). 2009-10 had 19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 winter of 2009-10 came pretty close to having wall to wall cold I think all the cold weather we had in November plus all the forecasts for a cold winter has people frustrated that December is shaping up to be so mild. Great post. Wall to wall cold is tough to get, still think we will get our chances with our typical mid-Jan to mid-Feb sweet spot. DT went warm for Dec for the SE, although he has the NW US below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 ATL 8 coldest winters since 1929-30: # of days warmer than normal out of 90 (91 for leap year) 1963-4: 14 2009-10: 19 1939-40: 20 (one of my top analogs; Jan. 1940 coldest month since at least 1880) 1962-3: 20 1976-7: 21 (coldest winter on record) 1977-8: 24 (2nd coldest winter on record) 1969-70: 25 1935-6: 29 So, if, say, that 15 of 12/1-20 are above normal (and even that may be overdoing it), that still would leave another 10-15 or so that can be warmer than normal during 12/21-2/28 with it still possibly being a very cold winter! Edited for more correct normals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Its 78 degrees here. Torch. I don't think we will get close to last December heatwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 I'm considering changing the header of this thread to, December Ranter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 I'm considering changing the header of this thread to, December Ranter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Real science at work. Facts are facts, people. Fewer pirates = warmer global temperatures! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Fwiw, entertainment and the record, the 18Z GFS has ZR in parts of NC 12/9-10. Now back to your regularly scheduled programming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Real science at work. Facts are facts, people. Fewer pirates = warmer global temperatures! I think you need to switch the independent and dependent variables. The warmer temperatures are causing fewer pirates. Not the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 I think you need to switch the independent and dependent variables. The warmer temperatures are causing fewer pirates. Not the other way around. Hahaha Agreed. I will need to see the r^2 to confirm this correlation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 I think you need to switch the independent and dependent variables. The warmer temperatures are causing fewer pirates. Not the other way around. LOL!!! +5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 GaWx - interesting post by MVolk about the possibility of a stronger nino, I wonder why a stronger nino would mean less snowfall/warmer temps for just the NE. Or would that be for the conus as a whole. For RDU, for +PDO year, we do better with mod/strong nino's than weak nino's, snowfall wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 GaWx - interesting post by MVolk about the possibility of a stronger nino, I wonder why a stronger nino would mean less snowfall/warmer temps for just the NE. Or would that be for the conus as a whole. For RDU, for +PDO year, we do better with mod/strong nino's than weak nino's, snowfall wise. There's no reason to address a strong nino. The chances of that happening this winter are too small to consider imo..really tiny. We're probably now only into low end weak ONIwise and we're already starting winter. Plus it has cooled back some per Cowan. I'm sticking to weak to low end moderate. Even the guru Don S. agrees with me about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 I like Webberweather53. Nice addition to the SE forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Hahaha Agreed. I will need to see the r^2 to confirm this correlation. Bah, Adjusted R2 is where it's at, man...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 1, 2014 Author Share Posted December 1, 2014 I like Webberweather53. Nice addition to the SE forum. Agreed! Mind blown. Webber dropping knowledge up in here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Let's just go ahead and get this out of the way before winter starts: Dec +3 Jan +7 Feb +4 Mar +2 Apr -3 May -5 Jun -3 Ok, well based on Webber's posts, I need to make one or two slight tweaks: Dec -1 Jan -3 Feb -5 Mar -2 Apr 0 May +1 Jun +2 (except +23 @ Waycross) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Bah, Adjusted R2 is where it's at, man......How unbiased of you sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Keep in mind that Mount Mitchell and Beech Mountain have already had an all time RECORD SNOWFALL for the month of November 2014. That is very very impressive. The key to enjoying the snow each winter, is to get out there and enjoy each one as if it was the only one for the winter. I have learned my lesson the hard way on that in years past. This year, I was ready to cross country ski on the Halloween Weekend snow storm and had a total blast being out at sunrise on Saturday morning November 01 to enjoy it while it was still coming down. Snow is a big blessing and it can melt oh so fast as even the 7" we had Thanksgiving day for the White Thanksgiving is already mostly gone. I am continually impressed with the amount of time and dedication many quality members on our forum contribute in analyzing the pattern and providing documentation of observations etc. For that all, I am very grateful and it is what makes us a great weather community. Here's to hoping the 2nd half of December, January and February really deliver for EVERYONE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 How unbiased of you sir It really is too bad that my E(snowfall) > μ on any given year. I'm biased. Ok, well based on Webber's posts, I need to make one or two slight tweaks: Dec -1 Jan -3 Feb -5 Mar -2 Apr 0 May +1 Jun +2 (except +23 @ Waycross) No. Dec: +8 Jan: +14 Feb: +16 Mar: +6 Apr: -2 June: -11 July: -21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 1, 2014 Author Share Posted December 1, 2014 Seattle just had snow yesterday I think, the funny thing is, that's always been a sign that we are in a no snow pattern here! Even back in the good TWC days, they would hype and talk about snow in Seattle or Portland, and you could guarantee a warmish/ boring pattern here! I can never remember a time when it snowed in Seattle and SE at the same time!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Ok, well based on Webber's posts, I need to make one or two slight tweaks: Dec -1 Jan -3 Feb -5 Mar -2 Apr 0 May +1 Jun +2 (except +23 @ Waycross) This would be pretty much my guess, although might go Dec +1. I have been looking for reasons to go warm in Jan/Feb and they are tough to find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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