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December Banter


mackerel_sky

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What I don't like in that map is how the lowest heights are still in Siberia. There isn't vodka cold for storms to pull down from Canada. baby steps?

Also, Can someone with knowledge please tell me if those low heights associated with the Aleutian low are a problem? I've been curious about that feature for a while now.

Very little knowledge here, but I wouldn't be that concerned about " vodka" cold, we don't need it to get super cold, then you have to deal with suppression ! Just need your basic 15-20 degrees below normal to get the frozen goods!
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We really need it. Will be great to not depend on the Russians to get us to the space station.

 

From what I've heard, the Orion capsule is not intended as a method of transportation to the space station.  It's for deep space exploration.  The plans for it involve landing astronauts on an asteroid and returning (2020s) before taking the first pioneer astronauts to Mars (2030s-2040s).  NASA is partnering with private enterprise on another method of reaching the space station.

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From what I've heard, the Orion capsule is not intended as a method of transportation to the space station.  It's for deep space exploration.  The plans for it involve landing astronauts on an asteroid and returning (2020s) before taking the first pioneer astronauts to Mars (2030s-2040s).  NASA is partnering with private enterprise on another method of reaching the space station.

Oh that's right. I do remember reading that. Hopefully we get something soon. I worry that the Russians may cut us off soon.  

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The amazing thing about this pattern flip is the below normal temps we get before the flip happens. At this point I would not be surprised if we(CAD areas) average below normal for the month. **We're currently in a warm pattern and I have a lot of highs in the 40s forecasted for me in the near future.  

 

I checked the NWS forecast for next week, and Tuesday is the only day so far that is forecasted to get above 50.

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I have thunderstorms in my forecast tomorrow ! Can't wait to hear the thunder in December , cause then I know snow is only 10 days away! :)

I see it is time for my yearly southern folklore post.

Sigh. Looks like its time for a repost of my winter southern folklore.

Top Six Southern Winter Folklore Sayings

1. If you count the morning fogs in August you will know how many August mornings were foggy.

2. A heavy crop of acorns will lead to fatter then average squirrels the next spring.

3. If it thunders in winter, 10 days later it will have happened 10 days ago.

4. If you study the bands of the wooly worm you will know how many are brown and how many are black.

5. Snow that lays on the ground for more than three days is dirty.

6. A ring around the moon means your Lasik surgeon screwed up.

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Might as well through in the forum specific points while i am at it.

5 SE Weather Forum Axioms

 

1. No matter what the weather is in November, SE forum members will find it has been followed by cold snowy winters in the past.

 

2. If it wasn't for the Hartsfield airport runway's heat sink effect, Atlanta would have the same winter temperature and snowfall average as Montreal. 

 

3. Wildlife(squirrels, worms, birds, moles) trump meteorologists in long range forecasting ability.

 

4. The warmer the winter, the earlier 1960 will be mentioned.

 

5. Cold winter, warm winter, wet winter, dry, living in Waycross will still make you cry.

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Where is the one about models?

This one?

 

Since this weekend's possible storm is the first real threat of this depressing winter I thought I would review the usual chain of events that will occur in the storm thread.

1. Storm first appears X days out. Mass excitement reigns.

2. Models that do not agree are outliers.

3. A model that shows a good hit can not, by definition, be an outlier.

4. The words, "tomorrow we will know" will be posted multiple times every day until 24 hours before storm onset.

5. The words, "storm dynamics will generate it's own cold air" means we are screwed but would never admit it.

6. A run with no model showing the storm or a flip flop away from a storm will be followed by the words, "the models still don't have a good handle on this event." This will be followed by the words in number 4.

7. Analogs will be posted and previous events mentioned, that have no relationship to the current storm. Examples, March 1960, 1993.

8. As zero hour approaches someone will post, "it's a matter of nowcasting now". This means that despite 7 days and nights of model watching, loss of sleep, loss of productivity on our jobs and alienating our families we still won't know what is going to happen until it happens.

9. Many posts will appear that start with, "I can't understand why it is not......" Others will contain cuss words combined with the term "dry slot".

10. Someone will post that the 360 hour GFS looks interesting and send us all back to number 1.

ADDENDUM: Brick will be happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad, happy, sad.

And that is just the first 24 hours.

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Good idea. I'll add that now. What are you doing up so early? I thought you slept in till like 11 or something on Saturdays because you stayed u so late model watching.

 

LOL, been up since 5:30am, already went to the gym, and now I am catching up on models from last night.

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