December Banter

[frazdaddy]

I think we will have our chances. Of course we can never be sure of anything winter wise this far south. I just hope it doesn't end up with us going on a snow chase in March with an airline ticket, lift passes, and a cable car ticket.

Nah, I know we will at least get a chase to the farm. They got 6" of wet snow over TG 

[Cold Rain]

To be fair, I did leave GA as an exception.

 

For the record, I never got my gun off on the winter forecasts when they came out. I don't expect cold, snowy conditions to be so abundant.

 

As of today - depending on where you live - the seasonal experience has varied from one forum member to another. But I also know that the available guidance as of today is not as terrible as many would have it seem either, and I don't expect the pattern to remain stagnant (great word for it) as you described.

 

***Edited to ask a question***

 

If I'm understanding you, a "normal" "to-be-expected" December is actually a dumpster fire, yeah? Which is cool if that's your perspective on it. I mean, if a dude doesn't like seasonal, then he doesn't like seasonal. I can understand that.

 

Out of curiosity, how would you classify an actual, hot winter? Dumpster fires are already pretty disgusting.

 

 

Again, we are talking semantics here. Even in those two brutal back-to-back warm winters, upstate SC didn't burn as badly as most. It may be possible for your BY to experience wall-to-wall warmth this winter (which is not even close to being conclusive at this point), but to assert that idea as being more of a likelihood than a possibility right now is betting against probability. Whether or not it's justified is a personal call. I don't feel it is from my point of view, but I haven't been torching over the last week either.

 

I do find this funny - the model that spends more time getting bashed from the vast Euro army is a huge driving influence in the current freak out. Why should it be trusted more than the Euro now? Especially when split flows are showing up. The bipolar nature of model fanboys is a crazy phenomenon.

 

I sort of get what Marietta is saying here.  There are essentially two ways to get a "normal" or "seasonal" pattern:

 

1) Have offsetting periods of warm anomalies and cold anomalies, or

 

2 ) Have a neutral (read "average") temp pattern throughout.

 

Option 1 potentially provides opportunities for winter weather, or at least potential opportunities for something to track, while at least feeling like winter.  It is at least somewhat interesting.  The trade-off is, you potentially burn up during the mild periods.

 

Option 2 provides nothing but waiting on a pattern change, kinda like where we are today.

 

Hey, I'm a long way from jumping into the lava pit in Mt. Doom, but my chagrin is based upon the fact that we're solidly going with Option 2 right now.  And the pattern that we're in or about to be in isn't one that will just take a couple of days to fix.  That GOA anomaly isn't just going to migrate west all of a sudden.  Over time, it probably will.  But by the time it does and the pattern reshuffles (assuming everything else also cooperates), we're probably looking into January.

 

If we need to await a SSW to get blocking going, then we're probably two weeks out from getting that process going in earnest...if it does then.  Then, we're probably at least two weeks from that point, maybe more, before we see any benefit.  Again, we're into January.

 

If it's just standard Nino climo that we have to wait on, due to wavelength shrinking or whatever, it's still going to take a few weeks for the pattern to realign, and that's AFTER what we're going to be getting over the next week to 10 days.  Again, that probably takes us into January.

 

So, all of that is all fine and good.  Maybe we should just say screw it to December and just bank on Jan and Feb saving us, which, they probably will.  I just hate to waste a whole entire winter month (even though it's not a big month for snow) by having virtually no opportunities for legit cold and snow.  I'm not saying that the pattern can't flip by month-end.  But, if the models are close to being right (and it isn't just the GFS -- the Euro ENS and GFS ENS are in pretty good agreement at D10), it's going to take a hefty amount of work to get us into a pattern that can support cold and snow, outside of some fluke, dynamically driven event.

[packbacker]

I sort of get what Marietta is saying here.  There are essentially two ways to get a "normal" or "seasonal" pattern:

 

1) Have offsetting periods of warm anomalies and cold anomalies, or

 

2 ) Have a neutral (read "average") temp pattern throughout.

 

Option 1 potentially provides opportunities for winter weather, or at least potential opportunities for something to track, while at least feeling like winter.  It is at least somewhat interesting.  The trade-off is, you potentially burn up during the mild periods.

 

Option 2 provides nothing but waiting on a pattern change, kinda like where we are today.

 

Hey, I'm a long way from jumping into the lava pit in Mt. Doom, but my chagrin is based upon the fact that we're solidly going with Option 2 right now.  And the pattern that we're in or about to be in isn't one that will just take a couple of days to fix.  That GOA anomaly isn't just going to migrate west all of a sudden.  Over time, it probably will.  But by the time it does and the pattern reshuffles (assuming everything else also cooperates), we're probably looking into January.

 

If we need to await a SSW to get blocking going, then we're probably two weeks out from getting that process going in earnest...if it does then.  Then, we're probably at least two weeks from that point, maybe more, before we see any benefit.  Again, we're into January.

 

If it's just standard Nino climo that we have to wait on, due to wavelength shrinking or whatever, it's still going to take a few weeks for the pattern to realign, and that's AFTER what we're going to be getting over the next week to 10 days.  Again, that probably takes us into January.

 

So, all of that is all fine and good.  Maybe we should just say screw it to December and just bank on Jan and Feb saving us, which, they probably will.  I just hate to waste a whole entire winter month (even though it's not a big month for snow) by having virtually no opportunities for legit cold and snow.  I'm not saying that the pattern can't flip by month-end.  But, if the models are close to being right (and it isn't just the GFS -- the Euro ENS and GFS ENS are in pretty good agreement at D10), it's going to take a hefty amount of work to get us into a pattern that can support cold and snow, outside of some fluke, dynamically driven event.

 

Agreed....you have people on one end of the spectrum that painted this end to end epic winter, which is always like once in a 30 year occurrence.  And then you have other people act like because we don't live in Canada that we shouldn't expect snow.  I am kind of in the middle, I posted some stats the other day showing it's just as likely for RDU to get 2" or less of snow in a season as it is to get 12"+ over a season.  It does snow here, just the past 25 years have been really rotten for us.  But, we had great stretches like the 60's-80's that were consistently snowy but since 1990 it's been inconsistent to the say the least.  I personally think the next 25-30 years will be more consistently snowy, whether it starts this year or in the next couple.

 

I remember winters back in the 80's where it was snowy and cold and then 2 days later your in shorts, that's typical for our winters.

[Bevo]

I sort of get what Marietta is saying here.  There are essentially two ways to get a "normal" or "seasonal" pattern:

 

1) Have offsetting periods of warm anomalies and cold anomalies, or

 

2 ) Have a neutral (read "average") temp pattern throughout.

 

Option 1 potentially provides opportunities for winter weather, or at least potential opportunities for something to track, while at least feeling like winter.  It is at least somewhat interesting.  The trade-off is, you potentially burn up during the mild periods.

 

Option 2 provides nothing but waiting on a pattern change, kinda like where we are today.

 

Hey, I'm a long way from jumping into the lava pit in Mt. Doom, but my chagrin is based upon the fact that we're solidly going with Option 2 right now.  And the pattern that we're in or about to be in isn't one that will just take a couple of days to fix.  That GOA anomaly isn't just going to migrate west all of a sudden.  Over time, it probably will.  But by the time it does and the pattern reshuffles (assuming everything else also cooperates), we're probably looking into January.

 

If we need to await a SSW to get blocking going, then we're probably two weeks out from getting that process going in earnest...if it does then.  Then, we're probably at least two weeks from that point, maybe more, before we see any benefit.  Again, we're into January.

 

If it's just standard Nino climo that we have to wait on, due to wavelength shrinking or whatever, it's still going to take a few weeks for the pattern to realign, and that's AFTER what we're going to be getting over the next week to 10 days.  Again, that probably takes us into January.

 

So, all of that is all fine and good.  Maybe we should just say screw it to December and just bank on Jan and Feb saving us, which, they probably will.  I just hate to waste a whole entire winter month (even though it's not a big month for snow) by having virtually no opportunities for legit cold and snow.  I'm not saying that the pattern can't flip by month-end.  But, if the models are close to being right (and it isn't just the GFS -- the Euro ENS and GFS ENS are in pretty good agreement at D10), it's going to take a hefty amount of work to get us into a pattern that can support cold and snow, outside of some fluke, dynamically driven event.

 

And I get that. But regardless of how we term the pattern - whether it's option 1 or option 2 - a normal/seasonal pattern still beats suffering everyday in the 60's and 70's from DEC-MAR. And it's not like there is zero possibility to get chances at winter weather from option 2.

 

If we get into Jan/Feb and find that nothing has changed, well....OMG all day everyday.

 

I guess I don't see it as wasting an entire month when it's never been normal to really experience winter during said month. It would be nice - no doubt - but it would also be the exception. It is largely the reason I follow a calendar winter, not a MET one. The latter part of December through mid March is where a SE winter resides - here on the ground - more often than not. And really, all of December is a slot machine. Hopefully the house will give us a break.

 

And to be honest, much of my lack of caring right now stems from the red alerts whistled all through last December only to be followed by 3 separate occasions of snow IMBY.

 

**Edited***

 

Hopefully it goes without saying that the mountain regions have their own rules and can experience winter from Nov-Apr or more.

[Cold Rain]

And I get that. But regardless of how we term the pattern - whether it's option 1 or option 2 - a normal/seasonal pattern still beats suffering everyday in the 60's and 70's from DEC-MAR. And it's not like there is zero possibility to get chances at winter weather from option 2.

 

If we get into Jan/Feb and find that nothing has changed, well....OMG all day everyday.

 

I guess I don't see it as wasting an entire month when it's never been normal to really experience winter during said month. It would be nice - no doubt - but it would also be the exception. It is largely the reason I follow a calendar winter, not a MET one. The latter part of December through mid March is where a SE winter resides - here on the ground - more often than not. And really, all of December is a slot machine. Hopefully the house will give us a break.

 

And to be honest, much of my lack of caring right now stems from the red alerts whistled all through last December only to be followed by 3 separate occasions of snow IMBY.

That's a smart way to do business, probably.  I'm ready to see something actually show up on the horizon, other than the hope of analogs to be right.  It's more me just being impatient than anything else, I suppose.

[Bevo]

That's a smart way to do business, probably.  I'm ready to see something actually show up on the horizon, other than the hope of analogs to be right.  It's more me just being impatient than anything else, I suppose.

 

Something will show up. I'm betting it won't be a legit change until early/mid Jan though. And that's only banking on the anologs as well.

[Isopycnic]

When I wash my car, it rains.  I just had a new set of fireplace logs installed.  Care to guess what that means?  Sorry.

You clogged the toilet with a log?

[Cold Rain]

You clogged the toilet with a log?

[jburns]

You clogged the toilet with a log?

 

Amateur.  What man needs artificial help to do that?

[frazdaddy]

Agreed....you have people on one end of the spectrum that painted this end to end epic winter, which is always like once in a 30 year occurrence.  And then you have other people act like because we don't live in Canada that we shouldn't expect snow.  I am kind of in the middle, I posted some stats the other day showing it's just as likely for RDU to get 2" or less of snow in a season as it is to get 12"+ over a season.  It does snow here, just the past 25 years have been really rotten for us.  But, we had great stretches like the 60's-80's that were consistently snowy but since 1990 it's been inconsistent to the say the least.  I personally think the next 25-30 years will be more consistently snowy, whether it starts this year or in the next couple.

 

I remember winters back in the 80's where it was snowy and cold and then 2 days later your in shorts, that's typical for our winters.

I agree. growing up in NC during those three decades spoiled me for sure. I also agree with your thoughts on us returning to similar winters 

[packbacker]

I agree. growing up in NC during those three decades spoiled me for sure. I also agree with your thoughts on us returning to similar winters 

 

I grew up in Winston and the first winters I remember were the late 70's and it was given to have snow every winter up through the late 80's.  Once the 90's came I was in HS and college and there were more important things than snow and I didn't really care or even notice the lack of snow.  But now I am ready for a return to the 60-80's period.

[franklin NCwx]

Something will show up. I'm betting it won't be a legit change until early/mid Jan though. And that's only banking on the anologs as well.

impossible, winter is over after dec 21st. The sun angle is too high and we all know winter starts in oct. Let's not be silly and expect snow in January, February, or March!

[superjames1992]

I grew up in Winston and the first winters I remember were the late 70's and it was given to have snow every winter up through the late 80's. Once the 90's came I was in HS and college and there were more important things than snow and I didn't really care or even notice the lack of snow. But now I am ready for a return to the 60-80's period.

Snow is still a given here every winter. I can't think of any winters without an accumulating snowfall.

[Bevo]

impossible, winter is over after dec 21st. The sun angle is too high and we all know winter starts in oct. Let's not be silly and expect snow in January, February, or March!

 

I have been shamed. My train of deceit has come to an end.

[pcbjr]

Snow is still a given here every winter. I can't think of any winters without an accumulating snowfall.

 

Lightning is a given here. I cannot think of a summer, spring or fall without ....

[packbacker]

Snow is still a given here every winter. I can't think of any winters without an accumulating snowfall.

 

Agreed, this is another reason why I think we will be more consistently snowy the next 20+ years.

[jburns]

My weeklies:

 

week three - No idea.  I don't bother looking that far out because it rarely verifies.

 

week two - Same thing.

 

week one - a rainy weekend followed by a dry week with normal to slightly below temperatures.  Adjusted schedule accordingly.

 

 

I pay attention to week one because that is the one in which I am living .  

[Cold Rain]

My weeklies:

week three - No idea. I don't bother looking that far out because it rarely verifies.

week two - Same thing.

week one - a rainy weekend followed by a dry week with normal to slightly below temperatures. Adjusted schedule accordingly.

I pay attention to week one because that is the one in which I am living .

I thought about you when I was mulching my leaves the other day. Got one more pass to make in a week or two and then will be all done.

[jburns]

I thought about you when I was mulching my leaves the other day. Got one more pass to make in a week or two and then will be all done.

 

Beats raking and bagging.

[Cold Rain]

Beats raking and bagging.

Every single time.

[jburns]

I have to admit, I loled.

 

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi  55m55 minutes agoState College, PA

Hey Hallmark.. Your Christmas Movies need a weather advisor. Fake snow with trees green, convertible tops down wrecks the romance

[WxBlue]

I'm usually the one impatient at this time of year, but I'm actually feeling confident we'll see some big dogs this winter. Maybe it's because Asheville already got 4 inches so easily in November when this town usually struggles getting a flake at bottom of valley at this time of year. The annual average is not as poor as RDU or FAY, but the last few winters here since 09/10 has been really pitiful. However, these bunch of early winter storms here in WNC (three times already for AVL) give me the feeling we're in for a heck of winter. Just my 2 cents

[GaWx]

I predict that based on analogs around one month from now, if not a little sooner, that many here will look back and laugh about how negative was the tone here a month ago based on the expected excitement level due to an overall much colder pattern then and down the road per models. I can't wait for this to occur. I strongly believe that this winter is going to be such a trip and that it won't be easily forgotten. This includes the teasing mild December and how it is expected to be such a stark contrast to what follows. The latest Euro weeklies are very exciting to see and are following the analogs nicely.

[mackerel_sky]

Larry , I'm a believer!! The way you nailed all the March ice storms and analogs and everything last year was amazing. When you speak everybody listens! I can't wait to get to January and think how dumb it was for me and so many others to start cancelling winter, I've been as negative as anyone, and can't wait to start tracking storms on the models instead of looking for an end to a crappy winter pattern! Keep up the good work!

[NCSNOW]

+1 Larry. And dang ECU. Fought so hard to come back. It literally is a game of inches.

[Shawn]

I predict that based on analogs around one month from now, if not a little sooner, that many here will look back and laugh about how negative was the tone here a month ago based on the expected excitement level due to an overall much colder pattern then and down the road per models. I can't wait for this to occur. I strongly believe that this winter is going to be such a trip and that it won't be easily forgotten. This includes the teasing mild December and how it is expected to be such a stark contrast to what follows. The latest Euro weeklies are very exciting to see and are following the analogs nicely.

 

Agree, I've pushed away from around mid-month into the last week or even a bit later into the beginning of January to really see some good stuff.

[WxBlue]

I predict that based on analogs around one month from now, if not a little sooner, that many here will look back and laugh about how negative was the tone here a month ago based on the expected excitement level due to an overall much colder pattern then and down the road per models. I can't wait for this to occur. I strongly believe that this winter is going to be such a trip and that it won't be easily forgotten. This includes the teasing mild December and how it is expected to be such a stark contrast to what follows. The latest Euro weeklies are very exciting to see and are following the analogs nicely.

 

I can only hope I'm not missing anything in Asheville while I'm back in Eastern NC until 2nd week of January, lol. 

[downeastnc]

Nasa launching Orion the new capsule for future Mars missions on its first trial flight in a few minutes

 

http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/nasatv/

[Isopycnic]

Nasa launching Orion the new capsule for future Mars missions on its first trial flight in a few minutes

 

http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/nasatv/

And it's away....

[calculus1]

Aaaarrrrrggggghhhhhh!  My video feed died at T minus 15 seconds!