mackerel_sky Posted December 4, 2014 Author Share Posted December 4, 2014 I wish the SE ridge would show up! While we are already down, let's get it out of the way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I wish the SE ridge would show up! While we are already down, let's get it out of the way! Haha! Might as well. Oh, and I love the old proverbial "rubber band" theory. That always works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Haha! Might as well. Oh, and I love the old proverbial "rubber band" theory. That always works. Was just browsing through DT's FB and Robert had a post on there...talking about how he like cutters for the winter and the TN valley is ground zero. If I have to watch cutters all winter, warm to warm/rain to cold, I would just assume stay in the pattern we are in. I don't think we are going to have cutter after cutter, will see, hopefully this is an equal opportunity winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I wasn't around much for the 2012-2013 winter, was that a gigantic mess? Not as big of a mess as back before we became AMWX I'm not sure of the year, but I'm thinking around '07ish maybe? I know it was in the heart of the super extreme drought here in CAE. It was bad.......our discussion thread for the WHOLE winter was only a couple of pages long and that consisted of whining and complaining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Was just browsing through DT's FB and Robert had a post on there...talking about how he like cutters for the winter and the TN valley is ground zero. If I have to watch cutters all winter, warm to warm/rain to cold, I would just assume stay in the pattern we are in. I don't think we are going to have cutter after cutter, will see, hopefully this is an equal opportunity winter. I thought he was favorable on the SE this year? Ug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I am going camping in the mountains Saturday night. Does anyone have any suggestions on a good place to go where we could possibly see snow Saturday night. Thanks Try Canaan Valley State Park near Davis, WV. Chances for measurable snow in the NC mtns doesn't look very good this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I think we knew 2012/13 was toast early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Was just browsing through DT's FB and Robert had a post on there...talking about how he like cutters for the winter and the TN valley is ground zero. If I have to watch cutters all winter, warm to warm/rain to cold, I would just assume stay in the pattern we are in. I don't think we are going to have cutter after cutter, will see, hopefully this is an equal opportunity winter. Come on, pack. Context is key. Include the rest of the post. I thought he was favorable on the SE this year? Ug. He is. Life should be good for all of the SE. Here is his actual quote: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I'm struggling with calling a pattern that delivers normal, "should-be-expected" conditions a "garbage" pattern (with GA possibly the exception). When did the SE population become entitled to an expectation of a cold/snowy winter from 12/1 through 2/28? It's definitely not a learned behavior since we have never had that before. Ever. I think people are just looking for and making up reasons to be disappointed. Do you want a forum full of smug cynics? Because that is how you get a forum full of smug cynics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 It's going to get very cold guys. I agree with Pack 10+ this year I think we will have our chances. Of course we can never be sure of anything winter wise this far south. I just hope it doesn't end up with us going on a snow chase in March with an airline ticket, lift passes, and a cable car ticket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Sounds alot like DT's and Brad P.'s winter outlook with two storm tracks, app runners and Miller A's. They kind of have all of the ground covered by going with both, don't they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I'm struggling with calling a pattern that delivers normal, "should-be-expected" conditions a "garbage" pattern (with GA possibly the exception). When did the SE population become entitled to an expectation of a cold/snowy winter from 12/1 through 2/28? It's definitely not a learned behavior since we have never had that before. Ever. I think people are just looking for and making up reasons to be disappointed. Do you want a forum full of smug cynics? Because that is how you get a forum full of smug cynics. Welcome to my world Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I'm struggling with calling a pattern that delivers normal, "should-be-expected" conditions a "garbage" pattern (with GA possibly the exception). When did the SE population become entitled to an expectation of a cold/snowy winter from 12/1 through 2/28? It's definitly not a learned behavior since we have never had that before. Ever. I think people are just looking for and making up reasons to be disappointed. Do you want a forum full of smug cynics? Because that is how you get a forum full of smug cynics. Agreed. Well said, Bevo. You've been on fire lately! (Not literally, because that would mean your backyard is a torch, and we know that hasn't been the case, nor is it likely to occur anytime soon.) So far, I've thought this late fall and early winter have over-performed. Cooler than normal temperatures have been the constant force so far IMBY, and I've been pleasantly surprised with that. The snow will get here when it does. For now, I am content and quite hopeful for the future prospects of wintry weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Come on, pack. Context is key. Include the rest of the post. He is. Life should be good for all of the SE. Here is his actual quote: LOL, just stirring the pot The first part of his statement was with regards to some analog or model output that was spit out by someone and he was commenting on how the look was text book for GA/Carolinas. His feeling was that things would "lean toward more western cutters". So I didn't take it out of context completely. Also, that is what JB is favoring too. It should be active regardless, everyone in the east should get theres. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I thought he was favorable on the SE this year? Ug. WxSouth If this works out (and I know most ensembles show the strong -AO this Winter), then pretty much Atlanta, north and east is in for a heck of a Winter from several blockbusters. The main height anomaly from Baffin Island to southern Greenland is numero Uno for Ga and Carolinas. I still lean toward more western cutters at times for the TN valley to be ground zero. Bottom line is another widespread Winter where many regions get hit. Thanks, whew! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I'm struggling with calling a pattern that delivers normal, "should-be-expected" conditions a "garbage" pattern (with GA possibly the exception). When did the SE population become entitled to an expectation of a cold/snowy winter from 12/1 through 2/28? It's definitely not a learned behavior since we have never had that before. Ever. I think people are just looking for and making up reasons to be disappointed. Do you want a forum full of smug cynics? Because that is how you get a forum full of smug cynics. I can answer!! We will have "should be expected conditions" but no up and down or chances at storms. If we were in a more favorable pattern that delivered normalish temps for this time of year we could still be tracking storms and opportunities. Due to what the pattern is upstream (north and West of us) we have a near zero percent chance at a snowstorm until it changes. I think our pattern could be more summed up as stagnant rather than normal. JMO but I think there is a big difference between a December that ends up average that was stagnant and one that ends up normal that had ups and downs. One has potential the other is a dumpster fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I can answer!! We will have "should be expected conditions" but no up and down or chances at storms. If we were in a more favorable pattern that delivered normalish temps for this time of year we could still be tracking storms and opportunities. Due to what the pattern is upstream (north and West of us) we have a near zero percent chance at a snowstorm until it changes. I think our pattern could be more summed up as stagnant rather than normal. JMO but I think there is a big difference between a December that ends up average that was stagnant and one that ends up normal that had ups and downs. One has potential the other is a dumpster fire. I agree with you on the stagnation. I would add that we can't have wall to wall cold, but we can have wall to wall warmth (see 2007 and 2013), so it's justified to be a little concerned about not seeing a cold pattern in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Might as well put this out there now so folks can prepare. If we end up with, what is my least favorite type winter, extended cold with no snow, cliff diving is not the approved action after losing all hope. However, that doesn't mean we just have to sit idly by and take it. On the chance the worst happens, please refer to the image below, so that you will be prepared to take proper action if and when the time comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I agree with you on the stagnation. I would add that we can't have wall to wall cold, but we can have wall to wall warmth (see 2007 and 2013), so it's justified to be a little concerned about not seeing a cold pattern in the long range. We have to also be aware of the analog years. Most had below normal temps for November, above normal temps for most of the US for December (except far SE), and then below normal temps in January. **as HM(mid-Atlantic) displayed yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Thanks, whew! LOL...since this is the banter figured I would post what analogs I am latching onto. A lot of these were re-enforced from thought/tweets/blogs from other mets over the past 7-10 days, not WB's, although they may have a couple of these. I am going all in on these analogs... - All analogs had +PDO with warm neutral (+0.3) to low end mod nino - The +1 PDO's were double weighted - They have the cooler/cold Nov. - SST from Nov/Dec matches up fairly well with what we are seeing. - They have the warm Canada and north/central US for Dec. I think when it's all said and done the southern to eastern US will probably finish at neutral for temps, but we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 First three days of December KATL saw +12.5 with another torch day today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I agree with you on the stagnation. I would add that we can't have wall to wall cold, but we can have wall to wall warmth (see 2007 and 2013), so it's justified to be a little concerned about not seeing a cold pattern in the long range. Judging by the reference to 2013 (2012-13) I'm assuming you're referring to 2006-07, that was not wall to wall warmth by any stretch of the imagination. Even that winter (as is typical for an El Nino, especially one w/ a decent Eurasia snowpack) flipped in February... 2013 was warm overall & came in a little late, but March was brutally cold in the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 How far is that from hickory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 How far is that from hickory? Google (or Bing) Maps is your friend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I can answer!! We will have "should be expected conditions" but no up and down or chances at storms. If we were in a more favorable pattern that delivered normalish temps for this time of year we could still be tracking storms and opportunities. Due to what the pattern is upstream (north and West of us) we have a near zero percent chance at a snowstorm until it changes. I think our pattern could be more summed up as stagnant rather than normal. JMO but I think there is a big difference between a December that ends up average that was stagnant and one that ends up normal that had ups and downs. One has potential the other is a dumpster fire. To be fair, I did leave GA as an exception. For the record, I never got my gun off on the winter forecasts when they came out. I don't expect cold, snowy conditions to be so abundant. As of today - depending on where you live - the seasonal experience has varied from one forum member to another. But I also know that the available guidance as of today is not as terrible as many would have it seem either, and I don't expect the pattern to remain stagnant (great word for it) as you described. ***Edited to ask a question*** If I'm understanding you, a "normal" "to-be-expected" December is actually a dumpster fire, yeah? Which is cool if that's your perspective on it. I mean, if a dude doesn't like seasonal, then he doesn't like seasonal. I can understand that. Out of curiosity, how would you classify an actual, hot winter? Dumpster fires are already pretty disgusting. I agree with you on the stagnation. I would add that we can't have wall to wall cold, but we can have wall to wall warmth (see 2007 and 2013), so it's justified to be a little concerned about not seeing a cold pattern in the long range. Again, we are talking semantics here. Even in those two brutal back-to-back warm winters, upstate SC didn't burn as badly as most. It may be possible for your BY to experience wall-to-wall warmth this winter (which is not even close to being conclusive at this point), but to assert that idea as being more of a likelihood than a possibility right now is betting against probability. Whether or not it's justified is a personal call. I don't feel it is from my point of view, but I haven't been torching over the last week either. I do find this funny - the model that spends more time getting bashed from the vast Euro army is a huge driving influence in the current freak out. Why should it be trusted more than the Euro now? Especially when split flows are showing up. The bipolar nature of model fanboys is a crazy phenomenon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Perfect summarization of the absence of below average temperatures in models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Well I have been sick since Saturday. Went to the doctor and turns out I have a nasty strain of Ecoli! Finally starting to feel a little better this morning. Always clean and cook your food throughly people! Rotten burgers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I think that expectation is slowly being baked in. We have SSW, MJO, and all of the other meteorological wizardry being deployed in a last ditch effort to save winter, like launching a nuke at an earth-killer asteroid. Hopefully, it will be enough, but the asteroid is still on its way... Unicorns and bigfoot. Hate relying on those things to pull us into a better pattern (much relied on, seldom seem to happen). The analogs are really what's keeping me hanging in there. If they fail though I might have to add that to my fairy tale winter weather character group. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Come on, pack. Context is key. Include the rest of the post. He is. Life should be good for all of the SE. Here is his actual quote: Glad he is still all in for a big winter. I guess December is just the month for warming up the band before the big show starts in January and February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 When I wash my car, it rains. I just had a new set of fireplace logs installed. Care to guess what that means? Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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