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December Banter


mackerel_sky

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-32 minimum in top right hand corner :)

 

LOL, yep.  Just the Euro overdoing long-range arctic outbreaks, per usual, I suppose.  I guess if we want a legit cold outbreak this winter, we need the Euro to be showing negative temperatures in our backyards a week out if we want to even sniff single digits.  :lmao:

 

I was actually in Spain the first couple weeks of January this year, so I missed that fun.  Oh, well.  I'm pretty sure I remember it getting down to -2 when I lived in WV a few years in the mid-2000s, so meh.

 

---

 

Looks like it's down to 29 now and there's frost on the mailbox.  The SE mega-heat-death ridge must really be FLEXING. ;)

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I got a stupid question? How do I post a pic from my phone to the forum board? I had a pic of it snowing this morning and could not figure out how to post it on the forum? I tried copy but it would not give me option to paste? Any help appreciated!!!

Go to main/ full version of the board on your phone, click on " more reply options", then click attach images, attach image, and then click reply
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Atlanta will finish the month of December 5 degrees above average for temps, only 2 freezes in what will be remembered as one of the most horrific Decembers on record. Did anyone forecast this ? I know some people said the month might be mild, but I don't remember it forecast to be this mild.

Oh, and this December will end up warmer than November. I know it's happened before, but I wonder how many times it's happened ? It's got to be extremely rare.

December was a wildcard, could go either way, so yeah, it was expected!
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I don't remember seeing many December forecasts with pretty much wall-to-wall torch across the CONUS, though.  We were relatively cool in the Southeast.

That's saying a lot considering Atlanta was +5 for December. If that's relatively cool, I can't imagine what the rest of the country was like.

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I'll you really put me to the test on this one & I admit severe weather is my one weak spot. I really didn't see a whole lot that jumped out at me, other than perhaps a few very minor caveats... I did notice on the surface charts a frontal wave emerged out of the eastern GOM & into south-central GA during the course of the day (which can be difficult to predict) & this likely contributed to at least a little extra lift that the atmosphere needed to have a better shot @ wringing out a few thunderstorms...

 

And now we know...

 

JGOvnHL.jpg?1

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Under a freezing fog advisory until 9 am here. Not sure my county had ever been under this type of advisory.

...DENSE FREEZING FOG IN THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS...

.A COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...WITH SKIES HAVING BEEN MOSTLY CLEAR TUESDAY EVENING AND ALLOWED RAPID COOLING OF THE SURFACE. SOILS REMAIN MOIST FROM RECENT RAINFALL. TOGETHER THESE CONDITIONS HAVE ALLOWED DENSE FOG TO FORM IN THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS ALONG WITH SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES. THE RESULTING LOW VISIBILITY AND POTENTIALLY SLICK ROADWAYS WILL CAUSE TRAVEL CONCERNS THIS MORNING.

...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING. * LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT...INCLUDING THE I-40 CORRIDOR. * VISIBILITY...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. * TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S THIS MORNING. * IMPACTS...DENSE FOG WILL IMPEDE VISIBILITY ON ROADWAYS MAKING TRAVEL MORE DIFFICULT. A THIN LAYER OF ICE MAY FORM ON ROADS...AND ESPECIALLY ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES. THIS MAY CAUSE PASSING VEHICLES TO LOSE TRACTION.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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Surface winds of 25kts+ accompanied most likely by a small period of sunshine in Valdosta helped produce an updraft that really took advantage of a meager atmosphere. With RH near 100% and veering winds through the troposphere, a condensation funnel reaching the ground and bringing down EF-2 winds was possible. The sunshine most likely produced enough lift for latent heat to really thrive once it reached 40k ft and tapped the jet winds. Thus as precip fell it was able to bring down stronger winds (Ef-2) to the surface. With realitive humidity so favorable, the condensation funnel had no problem reaching the ground and tornadogenesis occured. With PVA on its side, the storm was able to provide just enough of a kick to produce a cyclone. Just my two cents on the Valdosta tornado.

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Surface winds of 25kts+ accompanied most likely by a small period of sunshine in Valdosta helped produce an updraft that really took advantage of a meager atmosphere. With RH near 100% and veering winds through the troposphere, a condensation funnel reaching the ground and bringing down EF-2 winds was possible. The sunshine most likely produced enough lift for latent heat to really thrive once it reached 40k ft and tapped the jet winds. Thus as precip fell it was able to bring down stronger winds (Ef-2) to the surface. With realitive humidity so favorable, the condensation funnel had no problem reaching the ground. With PVA on its side, the storm was able to provide just enough of a kick to produce a cyclone. Just my two cents on the Valdosta tornado.

:twister:

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Atlanta will finish the month of December 5 degrees above average for temps, only 2 freezes in what will be remembered as one of the most horrific Decembers on record. Did anyone forecast this ? I know some people said the month might be mild, but I don't remember it forecast to be this mild.

 

Oh, and this December will end up warmer than November. I know it's happened before, but I wonder how many times it's happened ? It's got to be extremely rare. 

 

It is pretty rare, and looking at the US climate divisions in & around Atlanta, GA (which is a better indicator of overall trends and I assume this is what you're looking for in this case, rather than just focusing on one station), a cold November followed by a warmer December has happened 7 times in north-central Georgia since 1895. (1923-24, 1932-33, 1933-34, 1956-57, 1967-68, 1971-72, & 1984-85). All of these years except one (1923-24) were in a cold ENSO neutral or a La Nina event, which I found to be quite interesting...

 

In fact the temperature distribution in January & February 1924 is generally in compliance with how I think the rest of this winter (in terms of temps) will play out... January is much colder nationwide, then the core of the cold shifts towards southeastward towards.  the southeastern US & Eastern Seaboard in February.

December-1923-US-temps.png

 

January-1924-US-temps.png

 

Feb-1924-US-temps.png

 

Here's where you can find the raw monthly/seasonal NCDC climate division data.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries1.pl

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Just speaking for my particular area, we will most likely end the first week of January below normal (temp wise). Then looking at the models we would continue (to average overall) below normal for most days in the LR. I would venture to say it's looking good for a below normal January.

 

(but it's) Really funny how we perceive what is a warm pattern compared to a cold pattern. We should call the pattern we're looking for a winter weather pattern.  

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It is pretty rare, and looking at the US climate divisions in & around Atlanta, GA (which is a better indicator of overall trends and I assume this is what you're looking for in this case, rather than just focusing on one station), a cold November followed by a warmer December has happened 7 times in north-central Georgia since 1895. (1923-24, 1932-33, 1933-34, 1956-57, 1967-68, 1971-72, & 1984-85). All of these years except one (1923-24) were in a cold ENSO neutral or a La Nina event, which I found to be quite interesting...

 

In fact the temperature distribution in January & February 1924 is generally in compliance with how I think the rest of this winter (in terms of temps) will play out... January is much colder nationwide, then the core of the cold shifts towards southeastward towards.  the southeastern US & Eastern Seaboard in February.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Here's where you can find the raw monthly/seasonal NCDC climate division data.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries1.pl

Webber, That second image for January could easily represent the current pattern we're in. Even February could represent this pattern. The big question is will the storm track move SE to put us in a winter weather pattern.

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Under a freezing fog advisory until 9 am here. Not sure my county had ever been under this type of advisory.

...DENSE FREEZING FOG IN THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS...

.FREEZING FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING...

Sent from my iPhone

I am surprised someone from the Mid Atlantic didn't start a thread for your guys..............

 

I kid..............I kid..........

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