SnowNiner Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 With all the comments today about the difficulty of some in understanding Webber's posts I am considering making an effort to vernacularize sone of his posts for this forum. I will use the above paragraph as an example. "In juneral, velocity potential is usually a nicely smoothed field, an' is a fine approximashun (o' proxy) fo' deteckin' large-scale cornveckshun in th' tropics on account o' it focuses on divahjunce stemmin' fum equato'ial waves & phenomena sech as th' MJO, CCKW, Rostby Waves, TD-type disturbances, & even t'a sartin extent gravity waves. I'll be keepin' a close eye on th' VP, especially beyond this hyar week as th' conveckively inhanced phase of th' CCKW starts t'encroach on Africa & th' Western Indian Ocean, it is in compliance w/ th' junerally favo'able synoppic pattern we'll haf fo' at least an outdore chance at sumpin in & aroun' th' 2nd week of January." Cutty say can't hang.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 T-26 hrs until the party begins Jose is already on ice and I'm not going to be held responsible for anything I post while celebrating tomorrow........just sayin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 T-26 hrs until the party begins Jose is already on ice and I'm not going to be held responsible for anything I post while celebrating tomorrow........just sayin' Can I use that excuse for today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Can I use that excuse for today? Sure you can, but I'm not cleaning up the mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 You have to factor in where Metal lives. He is on a snow board and lives in Waycross. Some equivalents are: A poster from Needles CA, posting on a rain board. Santa Claus, posting on a tropical weather board. Ronald B, posting on a grammar board. Or DT posting on a manners board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 T-26 hrs until the party begins Jose is already on ice and I'm not going to be held responsible for anything I post while celebrating tomorrow........just sayin' Gonna be a party in Gaston tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Here's the deal on that. I really respect Brad's opinion but he's basically done what he complains others do sometimes. He cherry picked a model that shows a solution similar to what he believes will occur. The PARA GFS has almost no support from any other modeling, including ensembles. He usually sticks with whatever model is the least extreme and goes with climo most of the time. I was really surprised that he would get on the hype bandwagon. Really out of character for him I thought. While the statement of ens support is true (it could be just lagging, though)....Day 8 PARA has better scores than the GFS and CMC after DAY 8 and is the closest model to the Euro. In fact, it rivals the Euro as of late (see tail end of graph, notice it's scored better or the same as the Euro from Dec 18th to present)...if anything PARA should hold more weight in this time frame, verification score of 0.6+ after Day 8 is ideal, PARA not far from it. Also, I don't agree on this about brad. I've even thought he's hyped things before but they've ended up being correct so I was like "huh." Most mets at this exact moment if you tell them to forecast the Day 8 period 50% will give you one result, 50% will give you the other...it's no secret...it's a difficult period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Gonna be a party in Gaston tomorrow night. Just like every NYE for the past 25 years 20 people, plenty of liquor/beer/wine, appetizers, fireworks for the night. Bacon,sausage,eggs,biscuits/gravy, pancakes for breakfast and Ham, collards, black eyed peas,and mac and cheese for dinner. Nothin better than football,food,family and fun all rolled into one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Just like every NYE for the past 25 years 20 people, plenty of liquor/beer/wine, appetizers, fireworks for the night. Bacon,sausage,eggs,biscuits/gravy, pancakes for breakfast and Ham, collards, black eyed peas,and mac and cheese for dinner. Nothin better than football,food,family and fun all rolled into one Dang, you sure know how to party the right way......Lots of food, spirits, family/friends, and football to boot. Fireworks too.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Just like every NYE for the past 25 years 20 people, plenty of liquor/beer/wine, appetizers, fireworks for the night. Bacon,sausage,eggs,biscuits/gravy, pancakes for breakfast and Ham, collards, black eyed peas,and mac and cheese for dinner. Nothin better than football,food,family and fun all rolled into one Exact same three things are on the menu at my mom's place for New Year's Day. Have been for as long as I can remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Simple here .. Fried quail, black eyed peas, collards, corn bread, grits, some blackberry cobbler (berries frozen from the summer), and one big cooler full of Only thing missing is some cold, but alas, Hey - Happy New Year!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Soo... Yesterday there was a tornado in Valdosta GA, 60-70 miles away from where I live. How was that even possible with the parameters that were present yesterday? There wasn't even thunderstorms in the forecast from SPC. It was a pretty damaging tornado as well. I'll you really put me to the test on this one & I admit severe weather is my one weak spot. I really didn't see a whole lot that jumped out at me, other than perhaps a few very minor caveats... I did notice on the surface charts a frontal wave emerged out of the eastern GOM & into south-central GA during the course of the day (which can be difficult to predict) & this likely contributed to at least a little extra lift that the atmosphere needed to have a better shot @ wringing out a few thunderstorms... NEXRAD radar also shows that Valdosta was near the southern edge of the line of showers & there was a notable change/break in the orientation of the front edge of the line of showers in between the FL Panhandle and coastal sections of eastern GA/extreme southern SC, with the surge in the line of showers directly over southern Georgia & in order for this sudden change in the orientation of the line of showers/storms to occur, some minor speed/directional shear had to be involved (which coincides with the passage & slight intensification of the surface low). This likely helped foster a little extra vorticity, and left conditions marginal @ best for tornado development, and in this case the atmosphere clearly took advantage of this relatively minor opportunity... Radar at 1559z, about 30 mins before the tornado was reported just south of Valdosta. In the second pic, I edited in the general placement of the leading edge of the band of precipitation, the surge in extreme southern GA where the tornado occurred is quite evident... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 webber - enjoy your New Year! weather or not .... :~) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Dang, you sure know how to party the right way......Lots of food, spirits, family/friends, and football to boot. Fireworks too.... You should always complete the yearly circle with those you love, with food to warm your belly, and spirits/fireworks to both end and welcome the year too. It's the little things that matter Exact same three things are on the menu at my mom's place for New Year's Day. Have been for as long as I can remember. I think they are staples in every southern household. Comfort food Simple here .. Fried quail, black eyed peas, collards, corn bread, grits, some blackberry cobbler (berries frozen from the summer), and one big cooler full of Only thing missing is some cold, but alas, Hey - Happy New Year!!!!!!!! omg! I had the best fried quail last week from Manchester farms of all places It's the one thing I really miss about home........quail and pheasant hunting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 You should always complete the yearly circle with those you love, with food to warm your belly, and spirits/fireworks to both end and welcome the year too. It's the little things that matter I think they are staples in every southern household. Comfort food omg! I had the best fried quail last week from Manchester farms of all places It's the one thing I really miss about home........quail and pheasant hunting. quail hunting has been about the only thing nice about this warm foggy weather, the dogs are able to scent and point fantabulous. have a great end of this year - we'll catch up next (hopefully with a waycross blizzard!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Is that a good thing? It sounds like it is based on your tone. Nah, it's nothing really, looking at stuff like this is just my version of eye candy, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Severe weather is boring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Severe weather is boring! Weather sucks. I'm just here for all the pretty models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 The MJO causes upwelling in the Indian Ocean, which will induce fish migrations to Alaska. This will induce the MUNROE Index and cause it to rise, which is positively correlated with the ARAL Index, which signals that equatorial birds will migrate to the Southeast US. Research has shown that higher equatorial bird populations are positively correlated with Modiki El Nino states. They also tend to induce upwelling in the Florida Everglades as Crocodiles come out of the water to eat the birds. This crocodile activity tends to be correlated with a contraction of the SE Ridge and a strengthening of a -NAO state. In addition, wooly worms tend to be more active when equatorial birds are around, which is positively correlated with above average snowfall in the Southeast. And the MJO on Florida football .... lol (Gators, not crocks!!!!!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 We need to step our game up. We need a thread entitled "Fooked", too. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45242-fooked/ And apparently Mississippi State Head Coach Dan Mullen is in the festive spirit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 We need to step our game up. We need a thread entitled "Fooked", too. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45242-fooked/ And apparently Mississippi State Head Coach Dan Mullen is in the festive spirit. Good ole cousin Eddie. Went from some worm farms and a rusted out RV to being head coach of Mississippi State. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Nah, it's nothing really, looking at stuff like this is just my version of eye candy, lolThanks for the answer! That really has me surprised yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Atlanta will finish the month of December 5 degrees above average for temps, only 2 freezes in what will be remembered as one of the most horrific Decembers on record. Did anyone forecast this ? I know some people said the month might be mild, but I don't remember it forecast to be this mild. Oh, and this December will end up warmer than November. I know it's happened before, but I wonder how many times it's happened ? It's got to be extremely rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I'll you really put me to the test on this one & I admit severe weather is my one weak spot. I really didn't see a whole lot that jumped out at me, other than perhaps a few very minor caveats... I did notice on the surface charts a frontal wave emerged out of the eastern GOM & into south-central GA during the course of the day (which can be difficult to predict) & this likely contributed to at least a little extra lift that the atmosphere needed to have a better shot @ wringing out a few thunderstorms... NEXRAD radar also shows that Valdosta was near the southern edge of the line of showers & there was a notable change/break in the orientation of the front edge of the line of showers in between the FL Panhandle and coastal sections of eastern GA/extreme southern SC, with the surge in the line of showers directly over southern Georgia & in order for this sudden change in the orientation of the line of showers/storms to occur, some minor speed/directional shear had to be involved (which coincides with the passage & slight intensification of the surface low). This likely helped foster a little extra vorticity, and left conditions marginal @ best for tornado development, and in this case the atmosphere clearly took advantage of this relatively minor opportunity... Radar at 1559z, about 30 mins before the tornado was reported just south of Valdosta. In the second pic, I edited in the general placement of the leading edge of the band of precipitation, the surge in extreme southern GA where the tornado occurred is quite evident... Thanks! Severe.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 You have to factor in where Metal lives. He is on a snow board and lives in Waycross. Some equivalents are: A poster from Needles CA jshetley, posting on a rain board. Santa Claus, posting on a tropical weather board. Ronald B, posting on a grammar board. fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 We need a snap version of the forum for tomorrow night. Spirited banter, frustrated weenies and some suthern shine tomorrow night could make this forum melt. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 fyp ddt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Atlanta will finish the month of December 5 degrees above average for temps, only 2 freezes in what will be remembered as one of the most horrific Decembers on record. Did anyone forecast this ? I know some people said the month might be mild, but I don't remember it forecast to be this mild. Oh, and this December will end up warmer than November. I know it's happened before, but I wonder how many times it's happened ? It's got to be extremely rare. Who cares? I've had plenty of frosts and freezes this month and I would bet you did to. Everyone knows that KATLs records are skewed and not indicative of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Throwback Tuesday http://t.co/DF7OaB8pVT Now that's some modeled cold. #PolarVortex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Throwback Tuesday http://t.co/DF7OaB8pVT Now that's some modeled cold. #PolarVortex Not too far off here (about 7 degrees too cold), but LOL at the -20s in VA/WV/KY. Bluefield's actual low was -7, yet the LR Euro has -27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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