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December Banter


mackerel_sky

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50 at CLT. Now, if we have a couple of days where we hover around freezing, that's significant cold.

 

That's pretty rare here.  I'd be pretty happy with cold that puts us at low 40s during the day and 20s at night...then we get a timed system at night, bammo! Storm threat.

 

Highs near freezing at mid day will probably be suppression city.

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I don't ever post from my computer. I'm always on my phone when I post on here.

Guys don't forget to post your top 5 2014 weather events, especially you Brick.

I kinda do both. Sometimes I am drunk posting on DBM from my computer and posting stoned on AMWX from my phone at the same time. Sometimes crap gets all disjointed and loose.
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Is that a good thing? It sounds like it is based on your tone.

The MJO causes upwelling in the Indian Ocean, which will induce fish migrations to Alaska. This will induce the MUNROE Index and cause it to rise, which is positively correlated with the ARAL Index, which signals that equatorial birds will migrate to the Southeast US. Research has shown that higher equatorial bird populations are positively correlated with Modiki El Nino states. They also tend to induce upwelling in the Florida Everglades as Crocodiles come out of the water to eat the birds. This crocodile activity tends to be correlated with a contraction of the SE Ridge and a strengthening of a -NAO state. In addition, wooly worms tend to be more active when equatorial birds are around, which is positively correlated with above average snowfall in the Southeast.

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Brick be like, yo take this, here is some regurgitated crap I thought I would share with you.

 

attachicon.gif7_-Adult-Black-Footed-Albatross-feeding-chick-through-regurgitation-Midway-Atoll-USA1.jpg

Brick, Bruuuupp, hick... superjames1992 mentions snowfall!!!!

 

The MJO causes upwelling in the Indian Ocean, which will induce fish migrations to Alaska. This will induce the MUNROE Index and cause it to rise, which is positively correlated with the ARAL Index, which signals that equatorial birds will migrate to the Southeast US. Research has shown that higher equatorial bird populations are positively correlated with Modiki El Nino states. They also tend to induce upwelling in the Florida Everglades as Crocodiles come out of the water to eat the birds. This crocodile activity tends to be correlated with a contraction of the SE Ridge and a strengthening of a -NAO state. In addition, wooly worms tend to be more active when equatorial birds are around, which is positively correlated with above average snowfall in the Southeast.

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Interesting looking back at strong -AO's and SSWe's.  

 

Dec 10, 2009 had nice warming, the AO dove 7-10 days later to -5.8

 

Jan 10, 2010, the PV had re-streghened and the AO went back to neutral to slightly positive by mid-Jan.

Another round of warming occurring mid-Jan and from Jan 20, 2010  to most of Feb - the PV was toast at 10mb, it strengthened at end of Feb and the AO rose back positive.  The AO during that period was extremely negative (-3 to -5).

 

We obviously won't get something this extreme and there were other factors at play than a SSW but hopefully we can get the AO to tank and for an extended period.

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post-2311-0-99897700-1419974082_thumb.pn

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here nw of b'ham 7 days ago the forecast for the last few days was 60 and above, 4 of the last 5 days the high has been under 50 with most of them 46 or lower, not getting cold at night though with lows above average, right now our DP is dropping lower than it has been in the last week 34.4 and looking at the water vapor loop i see some energy dropping south quickly from the northwest territory of canada, the surface also shows a shallow layer of cold air all the way down into texas.......i dont think much of this was on any model 7 days ago.......the real world shows a shallow layer of cold air oozing south and east, and i dont see the low around the 4 corners area cutting off...also the southern stream seems to being getting its act together off calif/mexico......there is a bulge in the jet stream forming where it would likely cut off in that area also

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Brick be like, yo take this, here is some regurgitated crap I thought I would share with you.

 

 

 

Brick be like:  "My boss frontin' me with some work yo.  But I be creepin' out early.  Who wanna be workin' 40?  I gotta get my 'sounds like' on over at American yo.  Then my boss all hollerin' bout gettin' paid to do tha thang.  But aint nobody got time fo that.  Thay gon give me MY money.  That's right.  I be like, 'Haha, chedder comin' yo!!"

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In general, velocity potential is usually a nicely smoothed field, and is a good approximation (or proxy) for detecting large-scale convection in the tropics because it focuses on divergence stemming from equatorial waves & phenomena such as the MJO, CCKW, Rossby Waves, TD-type disturbances, & even to a certain extent gravity waves. I'll be keeping a close eye on the VP, especially beyond this week as the convectively enhanced phase of the CCKW starts to encroach on Africa & the Western Indian Ocean, it is in compliance w/ the generally favorable synoptic pattern we'll have for at least an outdoor chance at something in & around the 2nd week of January.

 

With all the comments today about the difficulty of some in understanding Webber's posts I am considering making an effort to vernacularize sone of his posts for this forum. I will use the above paragraph as an example.

 

"In juneral, velocity potential is usually a nicely smoothed field, an' is a fine approximashun (o' proxy) fo' deteckin' large-scale cornveckshun in th' tropics on account o' it focuses on divahjunce stemmin' fum equato'ial waves & phenomena sech as th' MJO, CCKW, Rostby Waves, TD-type disturbances, & even t'a sartin extent gravity waves. I'll be keepin' a close eye on th' VP, especially beyond this hyar week as th' conveckively inhanced phase of th' CCKW starts t'encroach on Africa & th' Western Indian Ocean, it is in compliance w/ th' junerally favo'able synoppic pattern we'll haf fo' at least an outdore chance at sumpin in & aroun' th' 2nd week of January."

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With all the comments today about the difficulty of some in understanding Webber's posts I am considering making an effort to vernacularize sone of his posts for this forum. I will use the above paragraph as an example.

 

"In juneral, velocity potential is usually a nicely smoothed field, an' is a fine approximashun (o' proxy) fo' deteckin' large-scale cornveckshun in th' tropics on account o' it focuses on divahjunce stemmin' fum equato'ial waves & phenomena sech as th' MJO, CCKW, Rostby Waves, TD-type disturbances, & even t'a sartin extent gravity waves. I'll be keepin' a close eye on th' VP, especially beyond this hyar week as th' conveckively inhanced phase of th' CCKW starts t'encroach on Africa & th' Western Indian Ocean, it is in compliance w/ th' junerally favo'able synoppic pattern we'll haf fo' at least an outdore chance at sumpin in & aroun' th' 2nd week of January."

 

And, here I thought that RonaldB had left the building...

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And, here I thought that RonaldB had left the building...

 

Ronald B would write that differently.  More like this.

 

In genehal, belocity potenshul is usual a nice smoodid field, uh uh uh uh, 'n is a good approximashun (or proxy) f' deteckigg large-scale conbeckion in the, duh uhh, tropics cuz it focuses on dibehgess stemmigg from ekatorial wabes & phenomena such as de MDgO, CCKW, Rossby Wabes, duuhhhh, TD-type disturbasss, duuhhhh, & eben t' a cehtain extent grabity wabes. I'll be keepigg a close eye on de BP, especial beyond dis weebuhk as the, errr, conbeckibe enhassd phase of de CCKW starts t' encroach on Africa & de Webuhstehn Indian Ocean, it is in c'pliass w/ de genehal faboraggle synoptic pattehn webuh'll habe f' at least an outdoor chass at somedigg in & around de 2nd weebuhk of Dganu.

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Ronald B would write that differently.  More like this.

 

In genehal, belocity potenshul is usual a nice smoodid field, uh uh uh uh, 'n is a good approximashun (or proxy) f' deteckigg large-scale conbeckion in the, duh uhh, tropics cuz it focuses on dibehgess stemmigg from ekatorial wabes & phenomena such as de MDgO, CCKW, Rossby Wabes, duuhhhh, TD-type disturbasss, duuhhhh, & eben t' a cehtain extent grabity wabes. I'll be keepigg a close eye on de BP, especial beyond dis weebuhk as the, errr, conbeckibe enhassd phase of de CCKW starts t' encroach on Africa & de Webuhstehn Indian Ocean, it is in c'pliass w/ de genehal faboraggle synoptic pattehn webuh'll habe f' at least an outdoor chass at somedigg in & around de 2nd weebuhk of Dganu.

 

 

Sounds like this guy.

 

dusty-rhodes-profile.png

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Ronald B would write that differently.  More like this.

 

In genehal, belocity potenshul is usual a nice smoodid field, uh uh uh uh, 'n is a good approximashun (or proxy) f' deteckigg large-scale conbeckion in the, duh uhh, tropics cuz it focuses on dibehgess stemmigg from ekatorial wabes & phenomena such as de MDgO, CCKW, Rossby Wabes, duuhhhh, TD-type disturbasss, duuhhhh, & eben t' a cehtain extent grabity wabes. I'll be keepigg a close eye on de BP, especial beyond dis weebuhk as the, errr, conbeckibe enhassd phase of de CCKW starts t' encroach on Africa & de Webuhstehn Indian Ocean, it is in c'pliass w/ de genehal faboraggle synoptic pattehn webuh'll habe f' at least an outdoor chass at somedigg in & around de 2nd weebuhk of Dganu.

 

Good point.  I mistook the Southern drawl of the first rendition for the bad grammar, spelling, and general all-around incomprehension of the second rendition.  Carry on, sir.  You know your craft well.

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Good point.  I mistook the Southern drawl of the first rendition for the bad grammar, spelling, and general all-around incomprehension of the second rendition.  Carry on, sir.  You know your craft well.

 

The main difference is the spelling of the terms.  My favorite is, grabity wabes.  lol

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Brick be like:  "My boss frontin' me with some work yo.  But I be creepin' out early.  Who wanna be workin' 40?  I gotta get my 'sounds like' on over at American yo.  Then my boss all hollerin' bout gettin' paid to do tha thang.  But aint nobody got time fo that.  Thay gon give me MY money.  That's right.  I be like, 'Haha, chedder comin' yo!!"

 

This cracked me up!

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