metalicwx366 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Um, maybe because your posts are always negative. And I have not been a weenie about anything this winter. The consensus from all the mets headed into this winter for a lot of action was reason to be positive about this winter. Maybe it happens, maybe it doesn't. But I am not going to sit here and be all doom and gloom over it. That is just a miserable way of going about it all. If it doesn't work out, so what? I'd rather remain positive about it and move on. My posts are not negative. I'm just being real. I'm not disappointed anyway. It's not like I ever expect snow. Now you OTOH, know damn well you won't remain positive if you don't get snow this year or a snowstorm fails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 ^ I have no idea what that means. Velocity potential is just a representation of the divergent aspect of a fluid (like the atmosphere for example) All that pic shows is the 200mb (200mb=upper troposphere, near tropopause) velocity potential... Areas of blue (red) denote large-scale upper level divergence (convergence) at this level in the atmosphere that can be attributed to tall cumulonimbus clouds because through condensational heating they transport air upwards, and when this air hits the tropopause, it spreads out causing divergence & thus you see blue anomalies show up in diagrams like this. The anomalous upper level divergence that occurs in these regions (such as those in blue in the pic I posted) affects the zonal circulation, upper level wind field & can generate Rossby Wave Trains & jet streaks that extend well into the mid-latitudes, ultimately affecting various extratropical teleconnections (like the PNA, AO, NAO, EPO) etc. that you are quite familiar with & our weather here in some shape or form... The upper level divergence from this tropical convection can also generate wind ducts in the tropical atmosphere that allow mid-latitude disturbances (rossby waves) to pass through the equator without being dampened (dissipating) or being confined within the hemisphere that they came from. Thus, the tropical forcing from MJO & CCKW for example also has the ability to impact the track of storm systems even here in the US, which is important of course if you like wintry wx & it appears that our winter wx events (@ least for the last 2 winters thus far) have been in sync w/ near equatorial negative velocity potential in the 30-60E band... This picture should give you a perspective of just how "seemingly" insignificant of a slice of the globe I've been looking at to monitor the velocity potential... Here's a few other images of the exact same thing (200 VP), the 2nd picture is just averaged over the last month or so, notice how most of the upper level divergence is focused over the eastern hemisphere and how this correlates to convection. What we're seeing isn't very characteristic of an El Nino, & I also went through the reasoning why the continued warming of the Indian Ocean on multiple timescales is likely to blame for the interference... Notice how the negative velocity potential (in blue/purple) tends to be focused over the eastern hemisphere & far western Pacific in La Ninas & is shoved eastward into the central Pacific during El Ninos. See the semblance between the Velocity potential & to the shift in the ascending (convectively active) portion of the Walker Cell that usually moves eastward in the Pacific during El Ninos, the 200mb velocity potential, tropical convection, & Walker Cell are closely related to one another... La Ninas OND Velocity Potential Anomalies El Nino Velocity Potential Anomalies In general, velocity potential is usually a nicely smoothed field, and is a good approximation (or proxy) for detecting large-scale convection in the tropics because it focuses on divergence stemming from equatorial waves & phenomena such as the MJO, CCKW, Rossby Waves, TD-type disturbances, & even to a certain extent gravity waves. I'll be keeping a close eye on the VP, especially beyond this week as the convectively enhanced phase of the CCKW starts to encroach on Africa & the Western Indian Ocean, it is in compliance w/ the generally favorable synoptic pattern we'll have for at least an outdoor chance at something in & around the 2nd week of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 My posts are not negative. I'm just being real. I'm not disappointed anyway. It's not like I ever expect snow. Now you OTOH, know damn well you won't remain positive if you don't get snow this year or a snowstorm fails. Whatever. All your posts are complaining about something. No snow, models suck, pattern sucks, missed that storm, missed that rain, got a storm but it wasn't enough lightning, missed that tornado, the hurricane didn't come over my house, my corns hurt, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Thanks, Webber. I appreciate the detailed explanation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Whatever. All your posts are complaining about something. No snow, models suck, pattern sucks, missed that storm, missed that rain, got a storm but it wasn't enough lightning, missed that tornado, the hurricane didn't come over my house, my corns hurt, etc. Lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Whatever. All your posts are complaining about something. No snow, models suck, pattern sucks, missed that storm, missed that rain, got a storm but it wasn't enough lightning, missed that tornado, the hurricane didn't come over my house, my corns hurt, etc. This is called turning things up a notch or two......lol. Good one Brick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Thanks, Webber. I appreciate the detailed explanation! Now, in your own words, tell us what you learned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Now, in your own words, tell us what you learned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Thanks, Webber. I appreciate the detailed explanation! Sure thing, I hope that helped... Here's the 200VP Hovmoller from last winter that brought this to my attention. 30-60E -VP=fun I'm still working on completing the entire NC winter storm database since 1958 to see if this correlation holds throughout the last several decades. I have about 275 storms to analyze, yay.. Lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Whatever. All your posts are complaining about something. No snow, models suck, pattern sucks, missed that storm, missed that rain, got a storm but it wasn't enough lightning, missed that tornado, the hurricane didn't come over my house, my corns hurt, etc. Pot... kettle... stoned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Pot... kettle... stoned. You...jerk...always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Whatever. All your posts are complaining about something. No snow, models suck, pattern sucks, missed that storm, missed that rain, got a storm but it wasn't enough lightning, missed that tornado, the hurricane didn't come over my house, my corns hurt, etc.You have to factor in where Metal lives. He is on a snow board and lives in Waycross. Some equivalents are: A poster from Needles CA, posting on a rain board. Santa Claus, posting on a tropical weather board. Ronald B, posting on a grammar board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 You...jerk...always. Sean's always drinking. I blame the alcohol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Thanks, Webber. I appreciate the detailed explanation! I wish I had the computing power & knowledge basis like Dr. Ventrice to filter for Kelvin Waves, that would certainly help me out here... Thus far I've analyzed about 25% of the record & the most popular longitude for -VP is the Dateline-150W, which corresponds to the climatological VP for an El Nino. Shocking, I know (sarc).... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Now, in your own words, tell us what you learned. Enhanced CCWKs drive divergence over the Indian Ocean, which in turn disturbs the Walker Haldeys. The WHs ride the Rossby Train over the zonal torque signatures. This causes a reduction in equatorial thermocream production, resulting in an asymmetrical and somewhat unorthodox but systematic MJO propagation into the eastern hemisphere. Ultimately, blue colors will show up over the SE, leading to an increased chance of outdoor winter weather over the next two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Enhanced CCWKs drive divergence over the Indian Ocean, which in turn disturbs the Walker Haldeys. The WHs ride the Rossby Train over the zonal torque signatures. This causes a reduction in equatorial thermocream production, resulting in an asymmetrical and somewhat unorthodox but systematic MJO propagation into the eastern hemisphere. Ultimately, blue colors will show up over the SE, leading to an increased chance of outdoor winter weather over the next two weeks. Close enough... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Sure thing, I hope that helped... Here's the 200VP Hovmoller from last winter that brought this to my attention. 30-60E -VP=fun I'm still working on completing the entire NC winter storm database since 1958 to see if this correlation holds throughout the last several decades. I have about 275 storms to analyze, yay.. Lol... It did...regardless of what I say to Burns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 You have to factor in where Metal lives. He is on a snow board and lives in Waycross. Some equivalents are: A poster from Needles CA, posting on a rain board. Santa Claus, posting on a tropical weather board. Ronald B, posting on a grammar board. Taht is funy i don car ho you arr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Sean's always drinking. I blame the alcohol. indeed @ work... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 ^ Hahaha! And my post is immortalized! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 What's up with Mr. Conservative Brad P? Seems that he stepped out on a bit of a limb with the talk of a change to a colder pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 You have to factor in where Metal lives. He is on a snow board and lives in Waycross. Some equivalents are: A poster from Needles CA, posting on a rain board. Santa Claus, posting on a tropical weather board. Ronald B, posting on a grammar board. Or a southeastern snow board! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bhs1975 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 You have to factor in where Metal lives. He is on a snow board and lives in Waycross.Some equivalents are:A poster from Needles CA, posting on a rain board.Santa Claus, posting on a tropical weather board.Ronald B, posting on a grammar board. He's sitting at 70 right now. Might as well be in Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 What's up with Mr. Conservative Brad P? Seems that he stepped out on a bit of a limb with the talk of a change to a colder pattern. Here's the deal on that. I really respect Brad's opinion but he's basically done what he complains others do sometimes. He cherry picked a model that shows a solution similar to what he believes will occur. The PARA GFS has almost no support from any other modeling, including ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Here's the deal on that. I really respect Brad's opinion but he's basically done what he complains others do sometimes. He cherry picked a model that shows a solution similar to what he believes will occur. The PARA GFS has almost no support from any other modeling, including ensembles. Actually, he just used it to try to show where he thinks the overall pattern is going. He later said he does not think it will be that extreme, but the overall pattern is headed towards being cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Whatever. All your posts are complaining about something. No snow, models suck, pattern sucks, missed that storm, missed that rain, got a storm but it wasn't enough lightning, missed that tornado, the hurricane didn't come over my house, my corns hurt, etc. All your posts are either tweets from somebody I have never heard of, wxsouth, wxnorth, A.H, etc, process of regurgitation from other mets, analyzing other posts really hard from other members then paraphrasing it differently to sound good. Its working clearly because you were considered a better poster than the most of us this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Here's the deal on that. I really respect Brad's opinion but he's basically done what he complains others do sometimes. He cherry picked a model that shows a solution similar to what he believes will occur. The PARA GFS has almost no support from any other modeling, including ensembles. He usually sticks with whatever model is the least extreme and goes with climo most of the time. I was really surprised that he would get on the hype bandwagon. Really out of character for him I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Actually, he just used it to try to show where he thinks the overall pattern is going. He later said he does not think it will be that extreme, but the overall pattern is headed towards being cold. If it's several degrees of 40 for highs, I'm sorry, I don't consider that cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 He usually sticks with whatever model is the least extreme and seems to stick with climo most of the time. I was really surprised that he would get on the hype bandwagon. Really out of character for him I thought. I was as surprised as you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 All your posts are either tweets from somebody I have never heard of, wxsouth, wxnorth, A.H, etc, process of regurgitation from other mets, analyzing other posts really hard from other members then paraphrasing it differently to sound good. Its working clearly because you were considered a better poster than the most of us this winter. All my posts are just commenting on what I think about what others say and what is going on. They are just my thoughts on the matter. You know, that's how message boards work. As soon as you start submitting some scientific stuff about weather, I might comment on that, too. In the meantime, please continue your pessimism and general miserable outlook on everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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