rduwx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I am as optimistic as they come, and I do think winter makes a run at us later in January sometime. All that said, it speaks volumes that we go run after run after run after run and can't really even buy fantasy snow in the long range and that almost all attempts to point at a better pattern start with 240 hour maps. lol. The 2011/2012 winter had to be the worst. Talk about a bad winter. I kept waiting and waiting for a more favorable pattern but never got it. We couldn't buy a fantasy storm on the models that year. It was the most boring winter I've had since being on the weather boards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I still think we can eek something out in this pattern we are in....but we need some changes to occur to maximize our opportunities. Right now it's just not in the models. The fact that they flipped from major cold in the east...to major cold in the west...to now a short term cold snap focused more in the midwest is worrisome. At least with the big time cold west of the Apps it would eventually pivot east and be more of a long duration event once it reaches us. 12z and 18z weren't bad at all for us....but with the models not sure of where to go after 150 hours it's hard to take any solution seriously. I do think though that the AO starts falling back to negative after Jan 1 which is the first real step. At the end of the day it's still Dec. we have plenty of time to turn things around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 The cold drought is really starting to show around my yard. I'm going to be in full spring in 2 weeks if we don't get some extended 20's for lows soon. That looks impossible with the long range as it is. Can I start the Spring 2015 thread now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Keep in mind that the first major wintry event of 2013-4 was still two weeks out from the end of the 12/30 ensemble runs. There's loads of time still left! ATL's peak in major ZR isn't til late Jan and peak SN/IP isn't til 2nd half of Jan-1st half of Feb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 That right there is the key. I just think the overall negativity is a bit much. No need to totally ignore some positive things, especially from Huffman and East. No need to totally ignore the not so positive aspects of the forecast if you don't like the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 These models suck. Poor Las Vegas might not get any snow. People leaving because of the threat of snow and ice there. Some people are going to be disappointed. It could be that the models are underestimating the amount of precipitation that might fall though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 These models suck. Poor Las Vegas might not get any snow. People leaving because of the threat of snow and ice there. Some people are going to be disappointed. It could be that the models are underestimating the amount of precipitation that might fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 30, 2014 Author Share Posted December 30, 2014 I think people are just looking for anything negative now and ignoring positive things like what Huffman and East said this morning.I only listen to what JB says!And as go positives, I see very few, I mean unless you count day 10 cold, I've been positive about that since November , I know it will come true by March???!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 That right there is the key. I just think the overall negativity is a bit much. No need to totally ignore some positive things, especially from Huffman and East.Dude, do you see where being optimistic has gotten you? Look at the big picture now, what is there to be optimistic about? You keep bringing up last year. We are in a completely different pattern from last year. Last year at this time, we had omega cold showing up on the models from next week. We are currently still searching for patterns 384 hours out. You know it's bad when the only hope is a SSW event, but I am interested to see what effects it will have on the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 It's obvious to me that the following needs to occur to shake up the mojo around here: 1. Retire the Charlie Brown themed avatars 2. Start the January Banter thread tomorrow so this one can be put out of its misery 3. Don't let discussion threads near the page 50 threshold without talk of a new one being created, and Heaven help us that we are actually going multiple pages past 50 this year. This significant change in thread lifespan/creation behavior from past years has upset the weather gods IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Be gone with your negativity! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I'm in 10 days if a better pattern doesn't start showing up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 The extreme negativity of some when there are periods during the winter with a lack of significant wintry threats is entertainingly funny. I think whining about something that people have zero control over is downright silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Man how many people on this forum think their climate is equivalent to that of Minneapolis? Seems winter is canceled every year in December because some have not been able to keep a snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Dude, do you see where being optimistic has gotten you? Look at the big picture now, what is there to be optimistic about? You keep bringing up last year. We are in a completely different pattern from last year. Last year at this time, we had omega cold showing up on the models from next week. We are currently still searching for patterns 384 hours out. You know it's bad when the only hope is a SSW event, but I am interested to see what effects it will have on the US. Not being miserable like you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 What did they say that was any different than anything we've been hearing by almost every met all throughout the winter so far? Hmm? They could both be right, and they know far more about this stuff than most of us. But we're STILL searching for LR patterns that look good. My post in the other thread was in jest. Things do NOT look horrible in the medium and LR. But this "models are just bad" crap is now a popular excuse. We certainly don't hear that if they're constantly showing a great looking cold pattern. And it's funny how they're never "trying to figure out" the warm pattern that's going to set up later. It's fun to speculate. But that's all we got right now -- speculation. If you don't agree, prove me wrong. On one hand, I do think the models are crap as they seem to change solutions every run. On the other hand, they have been spot on in showing zero snow for the southeast and zero snow in the southeast has occurred. Seems to me if you look at them in that light, they are batting a 1000 at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 No need to totally ignore the not so positive aspects of the forecast if you don't like the forecast. Really no need for all those laughing faces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Capture.JPG Capture.JPG Capture.JPG Capture.JPG Capture.JPG Post of the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 1) Good grief , Iso, do you think you posted enough smilies? The thread is loading very slowly now. If anyone replies to him, please don't include his post in your reply. 2) My Peppermint Patty isn't going anywhere. It has zero effect (positive or negative) on the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Not being miserable like you. Snow weenie = Positive Everyone else = miserable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 It's obvious to me that the following needs to occur to shake up the mojo around here: 1. Retire the Charlie Brown themed avatars 2. Start the January Banter thread tomorrow so this one can be put out of its misery 3. Don't let discussion threads near the page 50 threshold without talk of a new one being created, and Heaven help us that we are actually going multiple pages past 50 this year. This significant change in thread lifespan/creation behavior from past years has upset the weather gods IMO. Good call, there. Done and done. 1) Good grief , Iso, do you think you posted enough smilies? The thread is loading very slowly now. If anyone replies to him, please don't include his post in your reply. 2) My Peppermint Patty isn't going anywhere. It has zero effect (positive or negative) on the weather. Yeah, I was getting unresponsive script alerts when I tried to reload the page. Ha! But, I'm glad that meme was such a hit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Snow weenie = Positive Everyone else = miserable No, but metalic just sounds miserable in general with his posts. And I am not being a weenie saying it's going to snow and snow a lot. I just don;t get all the gloom and doom. Even if it doesn't snow, so what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Webber, could you tell us what your expertise is? Just curious if you are in the weather sciences, analyst, programmer...what? The novels (not a dig) you write suggest that you're in some sort of science/programming field. Just curious. Who is the man/woman behind the keyboard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 The 2011/2012 winter had to be the worst. Talk about a bad winter. I kept waiting and waiting for a more favorable pattern but never got it. We couldn't buy a fantasy storm on the models that year. It was the most boring winter I've had since being on the weather boards. without a doubt, which is probably one of the reasons why this season seems so bad to so many. 2011/2012 has to be in the back of many minds. Almost every professional forecast showed a general cold and snowy winter in the southeast this year. Because of this, I am sure patience is running thin, even though it's still December. If we take out all the forecasts that were generally cold and snowy, I think people would still be pretty optimistic for what might lie ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 On one hand, I do think the models are crap as they seem to change solutions every run. On the other hand, they have been spot on in showing zero snow for the southeast and zero snow in the southeast has occurred. Seems to me if you look at them in that light, they are batting a 1000 at this point. the euro actually had a couple snowstorms that did not pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 without a doubt, which is probably one of the reasons why this season seems so bad to so many. 2011/2012 has to be in the back of many minds. Almost every professional forecast showed a general cold and snowy winter in the southeast this year. Because of this, I am sure patience is running thin, even though it's still December. If we take out all the forecasts that were generally cold and snowy, I think people would still be pretty optimistic for what might lie ahead. I still don't think this is like 2011/12 though. That was...just....horrible...from...start...to...finish. Only thing we could hope for all winter was a good ULL and even those were huge duds when we got them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 the euro actually had a couple snowstorms that did not pan out. GFS has also had quite a few fantasy blizzards and deep south snow storms as well. CMC had some icing and snow events in the LR too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I blame this crud winter so far on cold November. It's the worst. Can't cliff dive yet though, hopefully we get everything to switch/pendulum swing in late Jan. See where we are on 1/15. I'm ashamed, but I'm starting to root for a SSW and hope it stays on our side of the globe. Unicorns are our only hope!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I still don't think this is like 2011/12 though. That was...just....horrible...from...start...to...finish. Only thing we could hope for all winter was a good ULL and even those were huge duds when we got them. Agreed. Most importantly, it is only December 30th for goodness sakes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.