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December Banter


mackerel_sky

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I am as optimistic as they come, and I do think winter makes a run at us later in January sometime.  All that said, it speaks volumes that we go run after run after run after run and can't really even buy fantasy snow in the long range and that almost all attempts to point at a better pattern start with 240 hour maps.  lol.

 

The 2011/2012 winter had to be the worst.  Talk about a bad winter.  I kept waiting and waiting for a more favorable pattern but never got it.  We couldn't buy a fantasy storm on the models that year.  It was the most boring winter I've had since being on the weather boards.

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I still think we can eek something out in this pattern we are in....but we need some changes to occur to maximize our opportunities. Right now it's just not in the models. The fact that they flipped from major cold in the east...to major cold in the west...to now a short term cold snap focused more in the midwest is worrisome.  At least with the big time cold west of the Apps it would eventually pivot east and be more of a long duration event once it reaches us. 12z and 18z weren't bad at all for us....but with the models not sure of where to go after 150 hours it's hard to take any solution seriously. I do think though that the AO starts falling back to negative after Jan 1 which is the first real step. At the end of the day it's still Dec. we have plenty of time to turn things around.

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Keep in mind that the first major wintry event of 2013-4 was still two weeks out from the end of the 12/30 ensemble runs. There's loads of time still left! ATL's peak in major ZR isn't til late Jan and peak SN/IP isn't til 2nd half of Jan-1st half of Feb!

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I think people are just looking for anything negative now and ignoring positive things like what Huffman and East said this morning.

I only listen to what JB says!

And as go positives, I see very few, I mean unless you count day 10 cold, I've been positive about that since November , I know it will come true by March???!!

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That right there is the key. I just think the overall negativity is a bit much. No need to totally ignore some positive things, especially from Huffman and East.

Dude, do you see where being optimistic has gotten you? Look at the big picture now, what is there to be optimistic about? You keep bringing up last year. We are in a completely different pattern from last year. Last year at this time, we had omega cold showing up on the models from next week. We are currently still searching for patterns 384 hours out. You know it's bad when the only hope is a SSW event, but I am interested to see what effects it will have on the US.
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It's obvious to me that the following needs to occur to shake up the mojo around here:

1. Retire the Charlie Brown themed avatars

2. Start the January Banter thread tomorrow so this one can be put out of its misery

3. Don't let discussion threads near the page 50 threshold without talk of a new one being created, and Heaven help us that we are actually going multiple pages past 50 this year. This significant change in thread lifespan/creation behavior from past years has upset the weather gods IMO.

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Dude, do you see where being optimistic has gotten you? Look at the big picture now, what is there to be optimistic about? You keep bringing up last year. We are in a completely different pattern from last year. Last year at this time, we had omega cold showing up on the models from next week. We are currently still searching for patterns 384 hours out. You know it's bad when the only hope is a SSW event, but I am interested to see what effects it will have on the US.

 

Not being miserable like you.

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What did they say that was any different than anything we've been hearing by almost every met all throughout the winter so far? Hmm?

They could both be right, and they know far more about this stuff than most of us. But we're STILL searching for LR patterns that look good.

My post in the other thread was in jest. Things do NOT look horrible in the medium and LR. But this "models are just bad" crap is now a popular excuse. We certainly don't hear that if they're constantly showing a great looking cold pattern. And it's funny how they're never "trying to figure out" the warm pattern that's going to set up later.

It's fun to speculate. But that's all we got right now -- speculation. If you don't agree, prove me wrong.

On one hand, I do think the models are crap as they seem to change solutions every run.  On the other hand, they have been spot on in showing zero snow for the southeast and zero snow in the southeast has occurred.

 

Seems to me if you look at them in that light, they are batting a 1000 at this point.

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1) Good grief , Iso, do you think you posted enough smilies? The thread is loading very slowly now. If anyone replies to him, please don't include his post in your reply.

2) My Peppermint Patty isn't going anywhere. It has zero effect (positive or negative) on the weather.

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It's obvious to me that the following needs to occur to shake up the mojo around here:

1. Retire the Charlie Brown themed avatars

2. Start the January Banter thread tomorrow so this one can be put out of its misery

3. Don't let discussion threads near the page 50 threshold without talk of a new one being created, and Heaven help us that we are actually going multiple pages past 50 this year. This significant change in thread lifespan/creation behavior from past years has upset the weather gods IMO.

 

Good call, there.  Done and done.

 

1) Good grief , Iso, do you think you posted enough smilies? The thread is loading very slowly now. If anyone replies to him, please don't include his post in your reply.

2) My Peppermint Patty isn't going anywhere. It has zero effect (positive or negative) on the weather.

 

Yeah, I was getting unresponsive script alerts when I tried to reload the page.  Ha!  But, I'm glad that meme was such a hit!  :weight_lift:

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The 2011/2012 winter had to be the worst.  Talk about a bad winter.  I kept waiting and waiting for a more favorable pattern but never got it.  We couldn't buy a fantasy storm on the models that year.  It was the most boring winter I've had since being on the weather boards.

without a doubt, which is probably one of the reasons why this season seems so bad to so many.  2011/2012 has to be in the back of many minds.  

 

Almost every professional forecast showed a general cold and snowy winter in the southeast this year.  Because of this, I am sure patience is running thin, even though it's still December.  If we take out all the forecasts that were generally cold and snowy, I think people would still be pretty optimistic for what might lie ahead.

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On one hand, I do think the models are crap as they seem to change solutions every run. On the other hand, they have been spot on in showing zero snow for the southeast and zero snow in the southeast has occurred.

Seems to me if you look at them in that light, they are batting a 1000 at this point.

the euro actually had a couple snowstorms that did not pan out.
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without a doubt, which is probably one of the reasons why this season seems so bad to so many.  2011/2012 has to be in the back of many minds.  

 

Almost every professional forecast showed a general cold and snowy winter in the southeast this year.  Because of this, I am sure patience is running thin, even though it's still December.  If we take out all the forecasts that were generally cold and snowy, I think people would still be pretty optimistic for what might lie ahead.

 

I still don't think this is like 2011/12 though. That was...just....horrible...from...start...to...finish. Only thing we could hope for all winter was a good ULL and even those were huge duds when we got them. 

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I blame this crud winter so far on cold November.  It's the worst.  Can't cliff dive yet though, hopefully we get everything to switch/pendulum swing in late Jan.  See where we are on 1/15.  I'm ashamed, but I'm starting to root for a SSW and hope it stays on our side of the globe. Unicorns are our only hope!!

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I still don't think this is like 2011/12 though. That was...just....horrible...from...start...to...finish. Only thing we could hope for all winter was a good ULL and even those were huge duds when we got them.

Agreed. Most importantly, it is only December 30th for goodness sakes!

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