Isopycnic Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 TORCH!!!! Wunderground NWS forecast. Averages Raleigh, NC December 3, 57.3f, 36.1f, 0.11" December 4, 56.9f, 35.9f, 0.10" December 5, 56.6f, 35.6f, 0.10" December 6, 56.2f, 35.3f, 0.10" December 7, 55.9f, 35.1f, 0.10" December 8, 55.5f, 34.8f, 0.10" December 9, 55.2f, 34.6f, 0.09" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 TORCH!!!! Wunderground NWS forecast. Capture.JPG Averages Raleigh, NC December 3, 57.3f, 36.1f, 0.11" December 4, 56.9f, 35.9f, 0.10" December 5, 56.6f, 35.6f, 0.10" December 6, 56.2f, 35.3f, 0.10" December 7, 55.9f, 35.1f, 0.10" December 8, 55.5f, 34.8f, 0.10" December 9, 55.2f, 34.6f, 0.09" Wow!... if this trend continues we could see mid 90's by July Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Wow!... if this trend continues we could see mid 90's by JulyNo way!#summercancelled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 TORCH!!!! Wunderground NWS forecast. Capture.JPG Averages Raleigh, NC December 3, 57.3f, 36.1f, 0.11" December 4, 56.9f, 35.9f, 0.10" December 5, 56.6f, 35.6f, 0.10" December 6, 56.2f, 35.3f, 0.10" December 7, 55.9f, 35.1f, 0.10" December 8, 55.5f, 34.8f, 0.10" December 9, 55.2f, 34.6f, 0.09" This goes along with the idea, that during this N. American warm period, the SE should escape most of the above normal temps (from average). A lot of stagnate, moist, and cool air masses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 3, 2014 Author Share Posted December 3, 2014 Yeah, but the information you get today from TWC is much more accurate than whatever was given back then. I understand the 24/7 weather thing, but there isn't always much to talk about weather wise. What could they possibly talk about today for 24 hours? You see how great they are during severe weather outbreaks.They are not even live half the time during late night. They must think we are stupid!? I have seen the same hour segment of live weather be looped for two more hours plus at 1, 2 am in the morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 This goes along with the idea, that during this N. American warm period, the SE should escape most of the above normal temps (from average). A lot of stagnate, moist, and cool air masses. Yep, still very warm the next 10+ days across the conus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 It's never good when we're chasing fantasy patterns as opposed to fantasy storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Dumpster fire continues....out to 12-19 now. Shall we light the 40 cu. yd. January roll-off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 yeah, eastern NC hangs on to the west side of the trough over the Atlantic. So? the rest of the SE is in West to NW flow and there is nothing but mild air to the west (all the way to central Canada relatively speaking of course). Pattern is not conducive to anything but above average temperatures for SC, GA, TN, AL MS, FL....I discount the Euro and Canadian until that solution repeats or appears on some other models. Wow!... if this trend continues we could see mid 90's by July Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 yeah, eastern NC hangs on to the west side of the trough over the Atlantic. So? the rest of the SE is in West to NW flow and there is nothing but mild air to the west (all the way to central Canada relatively speaking of course). Pattern is not conducive to anything but above average temperatures for SC, GA, TN, AL MS, FL....I discount the Euro and Canadian until that solution repeats or appears on some other models. Upstate SC looks perfectly seasonal over the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 The Southeast Forum AO Song with apologies to Harry Belafonte A-O, A-ay-ay-O Winter come and it won’t go down A, he say A, he say A, he say A, he say A, he say A-ay-ay-O Winter come and it won’t go down Studying the Euro and the GFS (Winter come and it won’t go down) Up all night my life is a mess (Winter come and it won’t go down) Come, Mr. Weather Mon, tally me statistics (Winter come and it won’t go down) Come, Mr. Weather Mon, tally me statistics (Winter come and it won’t go down) Forecasted negative on a HUNCH! (Winter come and it won’t go down) Damn thing went positive, I lost my LUNCH! (Winter come and it won’t go down) A, he say A-ay-ay-O (Winter come and it won’t go down) A, he say A, he say A, he say A, he say A, he say A-ay-ay-O (Winter come and it won’t go down) An Arctic high put us in the fridge (Winter come and it won’t go down) But then here come the Southeast Ridge (Winter come and it won’t go down) Thought I was a prince, but I’m just a frog (Winter come and it won’t go down) Married to a woman name of Anna Log (Winter come and it won’t go down) A, he say A-ay-ay-o (Winter come and it won’t go down) A, he say A, he say A, he say A, he say A, he say A-ay-ay-O (Winter come and it won’t go down) Come, Mr. Weather Mon, tally me statistics (Winter come and it won’t go down) Come, Mr. Weather Mon, tally me statistics (Winter come and it won’t go down) A, he say A-ay-ay-o (winter come and it won’t go down) A, he say A, he say A, he say A, he say A, he say A-ay-ay-o (Winter come and it won’t go down) Very nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 just when I'm starting to get the nerve to start posting more and attempt to put more value in my posts Webber joins and posts quality after quality info. I don't have time to put in that much effort! Back into my hole i'll go and just lerk around and learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 just when I'm starting to get the nerve to start posting more and attempt to put more value in my posts Webber joins and posts quality after quality info. I don't have time to put in that much effort! Back into my hole i'll go and just lerk around and learn. Man don't worry. Nobody understands what he's talking about anyway. As long as I hear the words "good pattern soon" that's all I care about! Haha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Have people here learned nothing about hugging the GFS over the years? By and large that model is crap past 3-4 days so repeat after me "It's the freaking GFS" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Man don't worry. Nobody understands what he's talking about anyway. As long as I hear the words "good pattern soon" that's all I care about! Haha! Yeah, you can't just skim through his posts, you have to take your time reading those. But man you do learn alot. Was just thinking, the CFS is going to nail Dec, yeah it might a little to warm for the SE when it's all said and done but it picked up the torch in Canada and central/western US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Pack, so how's it looking for Jan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Bad topic of the day that I'm reading from Bob Chill and others: How do we overcome all of the warming in Canada? It could take a LONG time for the cold air to build back up and then funneled in our direction. Oh, WOE IS ME!!!!! Winter cancelled.......AGAIN! Seems like we did this just yesterday. Oh wait a minute...WE DID! #wintercancel,#puntdecember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 3, 2014 Author Share Posted December 3, 2014 The warm Canada should probably be a real concern. It melts the snowpack which would help the cold transport later? How long does it take to get the cold air supply back into Canada? Normally when we are warm or seasonal in the US, the cold is always waiting in Canada to be forced down, where's it going to come from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 The warm Canada should probably be a real concern. It melts the snowpack which would help the cold transport later? How long does it take to get the cold air supply back into Canada? Normally when we are warm or seasonal in the US, the cold is always waiting in Canada to be forced down, where's it going to come from? Think about the nationwide and Canadian torch of Dec. 1939 and the frigid Jan. 1940 and that should allay your worries. I mean Dec. of 1939 was a severe torch with temp.'s' more than 10 above normal N plains and into Canada! That didn't prevent one of the coldest months on record for much of the E US in Jan!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Pack, so how's it looking for Jan? After the 20th things will get better. Weeklies tomorrow will give some hope. 87 didn't get really cold till mid-Jan but after that till early March it was darn cold. It did relax for a week in early Feb but then came back cold. Maybe something like that for this winter. JB has abandoned his 76/77 hope and now is clutching on to 02/03. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 We have a new pattern for most of December that is, unfortunately, continuing the lackluster rain chances in my area. Cold is definitely off the table through middle of January at least, but I need the gulf lows! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 just when I'm starting to get the nerve to start posting more and attempt to put more value in my posts Webber joins and posts quality after quality info. I don't have time to put in that much effort! Back into my hole i'll go and just lerk around and learn. Just because you lerk, doesn't mean you're a jurk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Just because you lerk, doesn't mean you're a jurk. jburns! It was great to see John Burns sworn in on Dec 1st! He will make some great changes for my county and I'm glad to have him, so happy to see him where he deserves to be. Hopefully he can push for some great changes for the education of the little ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 jburns! It was great to see John Burns sworn in on Dec 1st! He will make some great changes for my county and I'm glad to have him, so happy to see him where he deserves to be. Hopefully he can push for some great changes for the education of the little ones. Thanks. He will give it his best. I'm proud of him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 We have a new pattern for most of December that is, unfortunately, continuing the lackluster rain chances in my area. Cold is definitely off the table through middle of January at least, but I need the gulf lows! Middle of January?? I'm a warminsta and even I can't justify saying what I think things will do after the 20th. Skill just goes down way too low as you get that far out into time. If I had to make a bet I think we go cold before then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 I'm thinking that forecast high of 68 isn't going to make it today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 My guess is that youre 100% correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 At least the NWS went with 61. WRAL went with 68. Looks like they'll be off by about 10 degrees. The clouds and fog are holding on longer than thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Middle of January?? I'm a warminsta and even I can't justify saying what I think things will do after the 20th. Skill just goes down way too low as you get that far out into time. If I had to make a bet I think we go cold before then. I mean a real solid cold repeating cold pattern. Patterns usually take a few weeks to break and a week or so to establish...so 4-6 weeks out seems realistic, hence, middle of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 We have a new pattern for most of December that is, unfortunately, continuing the lackluster rain chances in my area. Cold is definitely off the table through middle of January at least, but I need the gulf lows! i don't have a problem with your thought process, but the little words "definitely" and "at least" seem strong for an opinion. Either way, it's your opinion, so you can own that rascal...... I mean a real solid cold repeating cold pattern. Patterns usually take a few weeks to break and a week or so to establish...so 4-6 weeks out seems realistic, hence, middle of January. 4 weeks out is the first week of January. From your statement, the middle of January "at least" would be more like 6-8 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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