Cold Rain Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 January hasn't even started yet. Even if the first half looks bad right now, that can change and the second half could be great. And then we have all of February. Last winter we didn't get the first snow here until Jan 29 and we ended up having two more snows and average for winter. Plenty of time for good things to happen. No guarantees, but no reason for all the doom and gloom either. I am thiiiiiiiiiis close to rooting for a warm and snowless winter, just to see you have an apocolyptic, Chernobyl-style meltdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Burns, I think Pack hit on part of it; we haven't had a real system to track yet. We've spent all winter so far tracking patterns (with maybe a small exception -- that being the thread Delta started). So it's kinda like comparing apples and oranges. In my experience model watching, something that happens often (or seems to, based on my recollection) is that we see a turn to cold getting delayed. This seems to happen a lot. It happens often enough for me to see that as a big red flag. It does happen the other way with warmth, but not as much. At least it seems that way. So, in that regard, the models are not really performing any worse. They're just as bad in the LR as usual. We'll see how they do when and if we actually have a storm to track. I think the lot of us are falling victim to the repeating mantra that the "models are just bad this year". If it's said enough, it seems believable. A lot of that, I think, is due to the fact that things are not following the analog/winter forecast plan, and we're looking for a way out, rather than accepting the inevitable conclusion that half of the winter is going to go down in flames. There are situations when the models perform better than others. Fast flow will lower their skill. We have had some of that recently. But that's not uncommon. My view is things are no worse this year and saying the models are performing badly is just an excuse to get around the fact that they're showing something we don't want. I certainly agree that some of what I am saying can be due to perception over reality. While I do enjoy snow, I am not someone that freaks out when it isn't forthcoming. A winter with 60º highs, like the last two days here, are enjoyable in their own right. And enjoy them I do. That four hour gap in my posts this afternoon, was spent outside enjoying the day. However, in the past there were few times you could not look backwards through the models and not find at least one, usually a couple, that you could say had figured out what occurred and stayed fairly consistent from at least 5 or so days out. I'm just not seeing that this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 I am thiiiiiiiiiis close to rooting for a warm and snowless winter, just to see you have an apocolyptic, Chernobyl-style meltdown.welcome to our side!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 I am thiiiiiiiiiis close to rooting for a warm and snowless winter, just to see you have an apocolyptic, Chernobyl-style meltdown. I am there. I would be far more frustrated with cold/snowless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 If there's any constellation this month has certainly felt more El Nino like around here than it has the past few months. Rainy and cool, plus the rainfall is still very much needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machetemoonlight Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 If there's any constellation this month has certainly felt more El Nino like around here than it has the past few months. Rainy and cool, plus the rainfall is still very much needed. it's felt like the Orion's belt up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 27, 2014 Author Share Posted December 27, 2014 it's felt like the Orion's belt up here.Lol! I'm more of a Big Dipper kind of guy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 welcome to our side!!! Haha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 It's an Outback night, Franklin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 27, 2014 Author Share Posted December 27, 2014 that whole area sucks ballzWaycross or just metallic336' s house?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 27, 2014 Author Share Posted December 27, 2014 It's an Outback night, Franklin! Bad daddy's burger bar FTW ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Wake Forest also sucks. Either old redneck crap, or a bunch of new tract development with all the character of James Franco at the Oscars. I was just up that way yesterday. ****ty traffic. ****ty suburban BS.Tell us how you really feel about WF...hahaCapital is horrible. I'd never live there but have some family that lives in Heritage. I'd prefer to live in downtown Raleigh. Same or probably less traffic except I can walk everywhere and the belt line and everything else is right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Bad daddy's burger bar FTW ! Man that's like an ace high to my full house! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 It's an Outback night, Franklin! lol it was a McDonald's drive thru night after coming back frome asheville to do the Christmas get together with my mother in law side of the family. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 lol it was a McDonald's drive thru night after coming back frome asheville to do the Christmas get together with my mother in law side of the family. Y I K E S ! ! (What's that bag over the head emoticon???? This is a good time for it.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 I agree that Capital Boulevard is awful. Non-stop stoplights... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 I agree that Capital Boulevard is awful. Non-stop stoplights... I intentionally ran a red light on it the other day in order to perform an illegal U turn. I'll risk a ticket to avoid sitting at a light for an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 This thread sponsored by Lescos /Scotts. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 This thread co sponsored by National Van Lines... if you're breaking up a family this year because of the SE Ridge, let National break it up for you! (only semi-funny comment I can think of to eliminate my winter agony) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 If there's any constellation this month has certainly felt more El Nino like around here than it has the past few months. Rainy and cool, plus the rainfall is still very much needed. I disagree. It only rained during the 22-25 period, other than that, dry as a bone. http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/sercc/MonthPNormSERCC.png http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current/index.php?action=update_product&product=PNorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 18z GFS is popping a SE snowstorm around hr 372. Who's starting the thread?? LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 18z GFS is popping a SE snowstorm around hr 372. Who's starting the thread?? LOL!Guys if you want snow, we need to move to Las Vegas!!!! At least they will have a white new years! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 I disagree. It only rained during the 22-25 period, other than that, dry as a bone. http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/sercc/MonthPNormSERCC.png http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current/index.php?action=update_product&product=PNorm Yeah, you're right. The more measurable rainfall has been more during this second half of the month than it has the first half. However, even with that said, this month still seems El Nino-ish (with the exception of the first week) if you include days where it wasn't measurable rainfall, but it was cloudy, foggy, and misty. Like I said before a few days ago, it's been Seattle type of weather. Were under a Flash Flood Watch and are expected to see anywhere from 1-3 inches this weekend, if we end up on the higher side of that we'll be well above average for December as a whole. Actually on par with December 2013 if we do end up falling on the higher end of that rainfall forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Wake Forest also sucks. Either old redneck crap, or a bunch of new tract development with all the character of James Franco at the Oscars. I was just up that way yesterday. ****ty traffic. ****ty suburban BS. Enjoy your murders. The only bad part of traffic is on Capital and you can avoid it. The town isn't that big so unless you are headed to downtown Raleigh it isn't bad. I like being able to get to everything within 5 miles like grocery stores, restaurants, and shopping stores. And it still feels like a small town. I grew up in Durham and would not live there now for anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Lol you got snow in November, January 21st and January 28th last year. No one got wintry precipitation on January 29th except for me. I also got snow in February. Forgive me for being off one day about the January snow Brainiac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 I agree that Capital Boulevard is awful. Non-stop stoplights... It is really not bad unless you want to go to downtown Raleigh. But the town of Wake Forest is great. But I did like it more when my office was in RTP and I could go the back roads to work, even though it took me 45 minutes. I was at least going the whole time. I do hate the stop and go now on the way to work on Capital, but also because I dread my job since it bores me to death. And before I could always go play basketball during lunch when I worked in RTP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 I also got snow in February. Forgive me for being off one day about the January snow Brainiac. :lmao: Come on you should know these dates left to right.Toxictwister, I didn't know there was a flash flood watch for Atlanta. Heck I didn't even know there was a system producing any precipitation across the south. No discussion lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Toxictwister, I didn't know there was a flash flood watch for Atlanta. Heck I didn't even know there was a system producing any precipitation across the south. No discussion lol! Rainstorms are dead to the majority of posters here during met. winter . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 :lmao: Come on you should know these dates left to right. Toxictwister, I didn't know there was a flash flood watch for Atlanta. Heck I didn't even know there was a system producing any precipitation across the south. No discussion lol! I remember there being some discussion about this system earlier in the week, but that came to a halt as soon as the models stopped showing any hints of frozen precip anywhere in the SE. EDIT: Now we've been upgraded to a Flood Watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Took a trip down to the Concord Mills Mall today. (Yep!) Kids had some Christmas money they wanted to burn at the LEGO store. I love that store! But, I hate the Concord Mills Mall and associated traffic. I don't know how you guys that live in the bigger cities and urban sprawl of Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham manage it from day to day. I despise the traffic. I'll take my 10-minute, 7-mile drive to work in Hickory any day over the congestion of the metropolises. I grew up in hickory and living in the triangle has its ups/downs. Much more to do, better job prospects, and a lot more women my age around here than back home. Being in your late 20's to around 30 in hickory is like women purgatory. That said, the traffic does suck. I live in the Cary/Morrisville area and you kinda have to plan your day around the high traffic times. It takes some getting use too. Took me a good year to adjust to the traffic. I haven't decided if i like the weather here better yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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