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December Banter

mackerel_sky

By mackerel_sky,
in Southeastern States

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

Lots of words and stuff....

Burns, I think Pack hit on part of it; we haven't had a real system to track yet. We've spent all winter so far tracking patterns (with maybe a small exception -- that being the thread Delta started). So it's kinda like comparing apples and oranges.

In my experience model watching, something that happens often (or seems to, based on my recollection) is that we see a turn to cold getting delayed. This seems to happen a lot. It happens often enough for me to see that as a big red flag. It does happen the other way with warmth, but not as much. At least it seems that way. So, in that regard, the models are not really performing any worse. They're just as bad in the LR as usual. We'll see how they do when and if we actually have a storm to track.

I think the lot of us are falling victim to the repeating mantra that the "models are just bad this year". If it's said enough, it seems believable. A lot of that, I think, is due to the fact that things are not following the analog/winter forecast plan, and we're looking for a way out, rather than accepting the inevitable conclusion that half of the winter is going to go down in flames.

There are situations when the models perform better than others. Fast flow will lower their skill. We have had some of that recently. But that's not uncommon.

My view is things are no worse this year and saying the models are performing badly is just an excuse to get around the fact that they're showing something we don't want.

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

Burns, I think Pack hit on part of it; we haven't had a real system to track yet. We've spent all winter so far tracking patterns (with maybe a small exception -- that being the thread Delta started). So it's kinda like comparing apples and oranges.

In my experience model watching, something that happens often (or seems to, based on my recollection) is that we see a turn to cold getting delayed. This seems to happen a lot. It happens often enough for me to see that as a big red flag. It does happen the other way with warmth, but not as much. At least it seems that way. So, in that regard, the models are not really performing any worse. They're just as bad in the LR as usual. We'll see how they do when and if we actually have a storm to track.

I think the lot of us are falling victim to the repeating mantra that the "models are just bad this year". If it's said enough, it seems believable. A lot of that, I think, is due to the fact that things are not following the analog/winter forecast plan, and we're looking for a way out, rather than accepting the inevitable conclusion that half of the winter is going to go down in flames.

There are situations when the models perform better than others. Fast flow will lower their skill. We have had some of that recently. But that's not uncommon.

My view is things are no worse this year and saying the models are performing badly is just an excuse to get around the fact that they're showing something we don't want.

Models were also bad last year except it was the opposite setup; warmth in the LR that never came.

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

Burns, I think Pack hit on part of it; we haven't had a real system to track yet. We've spent all winter so far tracking patterns (with maybe a small exception -- that being the thread Delta started). So it's kinda like comparing apples and oranges.

In my experience model watching, something that happens often (or seems to, based on my recollection) is that we see a turn to cold getting delayed. This seems to happen a lot. It happens often enough for me to see that as a big red flag. It does happen the other way with warmth, but not as much. At least it seems that way. So, in that regard, the models are not really performing any worse. They're just as bad in the LR as usual. We'll see how they do when and if we actually have a storm to track.

I think the lot of us are falling victim to the repeating mantra that the "models are just bad this year". If it's said enough, it seems believable. A lot of that, I think, is due to the fact that things are not following the analog/winter forecast plan, and we're looking for a way out, rather than accepting the inevitable conclusion that half of the winter is going to go down in flames.

There are situations when the models perform better than others. Fast flow will lower their skill. We have had some of that recently. But that's not uncommon.

My view is things are no worse this year and saying the models are performing badly is just an excuse to get around the fact that they're showing something we don't want.

There is a lot of denial going on in all the regional forums. There is a reason that essentially the entire central/east conus is well below normal for snow. There has been many well below average snowfall winters, just add this one to the list.

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

Jon's on vacation, but we need him to toss a little eternal optimism!!!!!

Lurking on my cell phone! But haven't got a chance to look at models just checked out the Euro/GFS strat maps this morning that's it. Still 3 more days of model runs left in Dec lots can change as we get to Week 2 but I will say I agree with Larry and others on a 1/15 time frame to start getting some action, unless of course the models want to flip again as soon as it hits midnight on 1/1/15...I'll try and find some silver lining tonight or tomorrow haha good news is it's just a matter of time before the -AO comes back.
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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

Chilling in the big city of Newsoms, VA. Going home tomorrow morning and going to get a membership to the YMCA tomorrow so I can play basketball and get some exercise. I miss playing, plus getting a new pair of jeans for Christmas and them being too small is motivation.

And to people claiming winter is over, it hasn't even started yet. Still plenty of time for things to change and for some snow.

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Jon

Jon

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Posted

Chilling in the big city of Newsoms, VA. Going home tomorrow morning and going to get a membership to the YMCA tomorrow so I can play basketball and get some exercise. I miss playing, plus getting a new pair of jeans for Christmas and them being too small is motivation.

And to people claiming winter is over, it hasn't even started yet. Still plenty of time for things to change and for some snow.

you better get that membership for free considering how packed it will be on the new year haha
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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

Evidently our winter starts Feb 1 and ends Feb 17th. So with that we are really still in Fall.

Never mind that Jan is our snowiest month in Nino's.

January hasn't even started yet. Even if the first half looks bad right now, that can change and the second half could be great. And then we have all of February. Last winter we didn't get the first snow here until Jan 29 and we ended up having two more snows and average for winter. Plenty of time for good things to happen. No guarantees, but no reason for all the doom and gloom either.
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calculus1

calculus1

Posted
Posted

Took a trip down to the Concord Mills Mall today.  (Yep!)  Kids had some Christmas money they wanted to burn at the LEGO store.  I love that store!  But, I hate the Concord Mills Mall and associated traffic.  I don't know how you guys that live in the bigger cities and urban sprawl of Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham manage it from day to day.  I despise the traffic.  I'll take my 10-minute, 7-mile drive to work in Hickory any day over the congestion of the metropolises.

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WidreMann

WidreMann

Posted
Posted

Took a trip down to the Concord Mills Mall today.  (Yep!)  Kids had some Christmas money they wanted to burn at the LEGO store.  I love that store!  But, I hate the Concord Mills Mall and associated traffic.  I don't know how you guys that live in the bigger cities and urban sprawl of Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham manage it from day to day.  I despise the traffic.  I'll take my 10-minute, 7-mile drive to work in Hickory any day over the congestion of the metropolises.

My trip to and from work doesn't involve much traffic. The mall areas are ****, though. And **** Capital Boulevard and 15-501. I never go near those except on down times if I can help it. Otherwise, there are a lot of roads that aren't too bad and you can manage to get around without running into huge amounts of traffic.
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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

Took a trip down to the Concord Mills Mall today. (Yep!) Kids had some Christmas money they wanted to burn at the LEGO store. I love that store! But, I hate the Concord Mills Mall and associated traffic. I don't know how you guys that live in the bigger cities and urban sprawl of Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham manage it from day to day. I despise the traffic. I'll take my 10-minute, 7-mile drive to work in Hickory any day over the congestion of the metropolises.

I am only 12 miles from work and it takes me 30 minutes to get there. I have to go down Capital Blvd and it always sucks. But if I just stay in Wake Forest then everything I need is only 5 to 10 minutes away.

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WidreMann

WidreMann

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Posted

I am only 12 miles from work and it takes me 30 minutes to get there. I have to go down Capital Blvd and it always sucks. But if I just stay in Wake Forest then everything I need is only 5 to 10 minutes away.

Wake Forest also sucks. Either old redneck crap, or a bunch of new tract development with all the character of James Franco at the Oscars. I was just up that way yesterday. ****ty traffic. ****ty suburban BS.
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metalicwx366

metalicwx366

Posted
Posted

January hasn't even started yet. Even if the first half looks bad right now, that can change and the second half could be great. And then we have all of February. Last winter we didn't get the first snow here until Jan 29 and we ended up having two more snows and average for winter. Plenty of time for good things to happen. No guarantees, but no reason for all the doom and gloom either.

Lol you got snow in November, January 21st and January 28th last year. No one got wintry precipitation on January 29th except for me.
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