Cold Rain Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Lots of words and stuff.... Burns, I think Pack hit on part of it; we haven't had a real system to track yet. We've spent all winter so far tracking patterns (with maybe a small exception -- that being the thread Delta started). So it's kinda like comparing apples and oranges. In my experience model watching, something that happens often (or seems to, based on my recollection) is that we see a turn to cold getting delayed. This seems to happen a lot. It happens often enough for me to see that as a big red flag. It does happen the other way with warmth, but not as much. At least it seems that way. So, in that regard, the models are not really performing any worse. They're just as bad in the LR as usual. We'll see how they do when and if we actually have a storm to track. I think the lot of us are falling victim to the repeating mantra that the "models are just bad this year". If it's said enough, it seems believable. A lot of that, I think, is due to the fact that things are not following the analog/winter forecast plan, and we're looking for a way out, rather than accepting the inevitable conclusion that half of the winter is going to go down in flames. There are situations when the models perform better than others. Fast flow will lower their skill. We have had some of that recently. But that's not uncommon. My view is things are no worse this year and saying the models are performing badly is just an excuse to get around the fact that they're showing something we don't want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Burns, I think Pack hit on part of it; we haven't had a real system to track yet. We've spent all winter so far tracking patterns (with maybe a small exception -- that being the thread Delta started). So it's kinda like comparing apples and oranges. In my experience model watching, something that happens often (or seems to, based on my recollection) is that we see a turn to cold getting delayed. This seems to happen a lot. It happens often enough for me to see that as a big red flag. It does happen the other way with warmth, but not as much. At least it seems that way. So, in that regard, the models are not really performing any worse. They're just as bad in the LR as usual. We'll see how they do when and if we actually have a storm to track. I think the lot of us are falling victim to the repeating mantra that the "models are just bad this year". If it's said enough, it seems believable. A lot of that, I think, is due to the fact that things are not following the analog/winter forecast plan, and we're looking for a way out, rather than accepting the inevitable conclusion that half of the winter is going to go down in flames. There are situations when the models perform better than others. Fast flow will lower their skill. We have had some of that recently. But that's not uncommon. My view is things are no worse this year and saying the models are performing badly is just an excuse to get around the fact that they're showing something we don't want. Models were also bad last year except it was the opposite setup; warmth in the LR that never came. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Burns, I think Pack hit on part of it; we haven't had a real system to track yet. We've spent all winter so far tracking patterns (with maybe a small exception -- that being the thread Delta started). So it's kinda like comparing apples and oranges. In my experience model watching, something that happens often (or seems to, based on my recollection) is that we see a turn to cold getting delayed. This seems to happen a lot. It happens often enough for me to see that as a big red flag. It does happen the other way with warmth, but not as much. At least it seems that way. So, in that regard, the models are not really performing any worse. They're just as bad in the LR as usual. We'll see how they do when and if we actually have a storm to track. I think the lot of us are falling victim to the repeating mantra that the "models are just bad this year". If it's said enough, it seems believable. A lot of that, I think, is due to the fact that things are not following the analog/winter forecast plan, and we're looking for a way out, rather than accepting the inevitable conclusion that half of the winter is going to go down in flames. There are situations when the models perform better than others. Fast flow will lower their skill. We have had some of that recently. But that's not uncommon. My view is things are no worse this year and saying the models are performing badly is just an excuse to get around the fact that they're showing something we don't want. There is a lot of denial going on in all the regional forums. There is a reason that essentially the entire central/east conus is well below normal for snow. There has been many well below average snowfall winters, just add this one to the list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Jon's on vacation, but we need him to toss a little eternal optimism!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Let's just face it. There will be no real winter this year. Enjoy the warmth and sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Let's just face it. There will be no real winter this year. Enjoy the warmth and sunI would but it has been cloudy and 48 every day. When does the Masters start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machetemoonlight Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Let's just face it. There will be no real winter this year. Enjoy the warmth and sun What sun? It's been seasonably cool, cloudy and rainy here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Speaking of which, I get to go to the Masters this year! (For the first and probably only time) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 27, 2014 Author Share Posted December 27, 2014 Speaking of which, I get to go to the Masters this year! (For the first and probably only time)Enjoy, I can't even get practice round tix, lol!My brother had the good fortune to actually play a round of golf there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 "My brother had the good fortune to actually play a round of golf there!" Does your bro own WalMart or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Jon's on vacation, but we need him to toss a little eternal optimism!!!!!Lurking on my cell phone! But haven't got a chance to look at models just checked out the Euro/GFS strat maps this morning that's it. Still 3 more days of model runs left in Dec lots can change as we get to Week 2 but I will say I agree with Larry and others on a 1/15 time frame to start getting some action, unless of course the models want to flip again as soon as it hits midnight on 1/1/15...I'll try and find some silver lining tonight or tomorrow haha good news is it's just a matter of time before the -AO comes back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Chilling in the big city of Newsoms, VA. Going home tomorrow morning and going to get a membership to the YMCA tomorrow so I can play basketball and get some exercise. I miss playing, plus getting a new pair of jeans for Christmas and them being too small is motivation. And to people claiming winter is over, it hasn't even started yet. Still plenty of time for things to change and for some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Chilling in the big city of Newsoms, VA. Going home tomorrow morning and going to get a membership to the YMCA tomorrow so I can play basketball and get some exercise. I miss playing, plus getting a new pair of jeans for Christmas and them being too small is motivation. And to people claiming winter is over, it hasn't even started yet. Still plenty of time for things to change and for some snow. you better get that membership for free considering how packed it will be on the new year haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 And to people claiming winter is over, it hasn't even started yet. Still plenty of time for things to change and for some snow. Which calendar are you using? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Which calendar are you using? Evidently our winter starts Feb 1 and ends Feb 17th. So with that we are really still in Fall.Never mind that Jan is our snowiest month in Nino's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 you better get that membership for free considering how packed it will be on the new year haha I know in the past they offered half off in January but I have not seen anything about that this time. The only weight and fitness classes will be busier, but I don't think the basketball courts will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 It would be funny if Nov ends up being colder than Dec, Jan, and Feb. Has that ever happened ? Also, I wonder how rare it is for the coldest temp all winter to occur in November ? I'm sure it probably happened in 50-51, but I bet it's extremely rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Great news on the EPS days 11+...... Not nearly as active/wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Evidently our winter starts Feb 1 and ends Feb 17th. So with that we are really still in Fall. Never mind that Jan is our snowiest month in Nino's. Hahaha! So, so sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Probley going to be a kieth whitley type of winter 'Im no stranger to the rain'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 The 18z GFS is lining up pretty well with the 12z run so far. Should be a good run for us warmnistas. I'm rooting for a hot rainstorm after New Year's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Evidently our winter starts Feb 1 and ends Feb 17th. So with that we are really still in Fall. Never mind that Jan is our snowiest month in Nino's. I figure we might as well also pretend that we only average an inch of snow per winter so that every winter becomes a perceived success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 I figure we might as well also pretend that we only average an inch of snow per winter so that every winter becomes a perceived success. Yep, that's next, we don't live in Buffalo, LOL. I will say, CAE has more snow than Boston this winter. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Evidently our winter starts Feb 1 and ends Feb 17th. So with that we are really still in Fall. Never mind that Jan is our snowiest month in Nino's. January hasn't even started yet. Even if the first half looks bad right now, that can change and the second half could be great. And then we have all of February. Last winter we didn't get the first snow here until Jan 29 and we ended up having two more snows and average for winter. Plenty of time for good things to happen. No guarantees, but no reason for all the doom and gloom either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Took a trip down to the Concord Mills Mall today. (Yep!) Kids had some Christmas money they wanted to burn at the LEGO store. I love that store! But, I hate the Concord Mills Mall and associated traffic. I don't know how you guys that live in the bigger cities and urban sprawl of Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham manage it from day to day. I despise the traffic. I'll take my 10-minute, 7-mile drive to work in Hickory any day over the congestion of the metropolises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Took a trip down to the Concord Mills Mall today. (Yep!) Kids had some Christmas money they wanted to burn at the LEGO store. I love that store! But, I hate the Concord Mills Mall and associated traffic. I don't know how you guys that live in the bigger cities and urban sprawl of Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham manage it from day to day. I despise the traffic. I'll take my 10-minute, 7-mile drive to work in Hickory any day over the congestion of the metropolises.My trip to and from work doesn't involve much traffic. The mall areas are ****, though. And **** Capital Boulevard and 15-501. I never go near those except on down times if I can help it. Otherwise, there are a lot of roads that aren't too bad and you can manage to get around without running into huge amounts of traffic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Took a trip down to the Concord Mills Mall today. (Yep!) Kids had some Christmas money they wanted to burn at the LEGO store. I love that store! But, I hate the Concord Mills Mall and associated traffic. I don't know how you guys that live in the bigger cities and urban sprawl of Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham manage it from day to day. I despise the traffic. I'll take my 10-minute, 7-mile drive to work in Hickory any day over the congestion of the metropolises. I am only 12 miles from work and it takes me 30 minutes to get there. I have to go down Capital Blvd and it always sucks. But if I just stay in Wake Forest then everything I need is only 5 to 10 minutes away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 I am only 12 miles from work and it takes me 30 minutes to get there. I have to go down Capital Blvd and it always sucks. But if I just stay in Wake Forest then everything I need is only 5 to 10 minutes away.that whole area sucks ballz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 I am only 12 miles from work and it takes me 30 minutes to get there. I have to go down Capital Blvd and it always sucks. But if I just stay in Wake Forest then everything I need is only 5 to 10 minutes away.Wake Forest also sucks. Either old redneck crap, or a bunch of new tract development with all the character of James Franco at the Oscars. I was just up that way yesterday. ****ty traffic. ****ty suburban BS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 January hasn't even started yet. Even if the first half looks bad right now, that can change and the second half could be great. And then we have all of February. Last winter we didn't get the first snow here until Jan 29 and we ended up having two more snows and average for winter. Plenty of time for good things to happen. No guarantees, but no reason for all the doom and gloom either.Lol you got snow in November, January 21st and January 28th last year. No one got wintry precipitation on January 29th except for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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