December Banter

[Shawn]

Shawn, I'm not sure the tabs on the computer screen are causing the problem here. Maybe the tabs on the cans coming out of the fridge??

True.  I wasn't too tipsy last night though.  I try to stay away for the most part when I'm totally hammered.  Only bad things have come from being on the internet hammered in the past, haha.

[jburns]

There is so many thinks, maybe, and what if, should, should not, and cans in the discussion thread. Now we are waiting till February. Oh well. Bring on Summer!

 

Discussion threads are always, thinks, maybes, what ifs, shoulds and cans.  That's why there is a discussion.  If we knew what was going to happen we would only need a single post.

[GaWx]

The CFS is dead to me.... Long live the JMA.

I love how one of the favorite lines of Kevin of Shark Tank fame is being repeated over and over with many not knowing who Kevin even is.

[metalicwx366]

Discussion threads are always, thinks, maybes, what ifs, shoulds and cans. That's why there is a discussion. If we knew what was going to happen we would only need a single post.

Winter cancel. Bring on Summer.

Speaking of this Jburns, check out the surprise snow in Texas. Wichita Falls had a 20% chance of light rain last night and woke up to a blanket of snow. Forecasters are even surprised.

[mackerel_sky]

2$ a gallon gas, you're dead to me!

[NorthernUpstateSC]

Every time I have logged onto american weather for the last 10 days or so my avast internet security anti-virus program keeps saying it is blocking threats from this site. Anyone else having this problem recently?

[mackerel_sky]

Every time I have logged onto american weather for the last 10 days or so my avast internet security anti-virus program keeps saying it is blocking threats from this site. Anyone else having this problem recently?

The only real threat from here is torch and depression!

[Shawn]

Every time I have logged onto american weather for the last 10 days or so my avast internet security anti-virus program keeps saying it is blocking threats from this site. Anyone else having this problem recently?

No.  I use malwarebytes and it's a bit better at detecting web threats.  Are you sure you didn't pick up a bug somewhere/install some kind of toolbar?  Also, what browser are you using?

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Winter cancel. Bring on Summer.

Speaking of this Jburns, check out the surprise snow in Texas. Wichita Falls had a 20% chance of light rain last night and woke up to a blanket of snow. Forecasters are even surprised.

looks like its going to be a great winter..... in Texas !

[Isopycnic]

The only real threat from here is torch and depression!

[jburns]

I want to make a non scientific point about what is going on. It's non scientific because I'm not a scientist, which is why it is here in the banter thread.    Someone with a better background than mine should correct me if I am wrong, but I do not remember a time when the models were so chaotic for such and extended period of time as they are currently, and my memory goes back a long way. Of course, there have always been variations and random bat sh*t crazy runs from time to time, but the shear amount and consistency of the wild swings in all the models over the past month is amazing. 

 

Often when an event unfolds it is clear with model was the first to latch onto the solution several days out and not lose the event for several days prior to it occurring. This usually prompts victory for the GFS or Euro posts in a storm thread.  I haven't seen any model victory posts recently in any thread.  Why is this?  There are a few possibilities tossed around in the forum, some possible some not.

 

The models suck, is one thing you read.  But do they?  Have they suddenly become worse than they were last year, or the year before?  They certainly seem to be sucking at the moment, but is it caused by sudden errors the models? I doubt that, and certainly not all of them at once.  What has changed?

 

Changes in the atmosphere?  That is a possibility, but how do you measure it?  Are our weather patterns not responding to various parameters in the way that models are programmed to expect?  That would explain why all the models seems to be affected.  It wouldn't take much.  A small error at day two can equal bat sh*t crazy come day 10.  If so, is it temporary or does it portend even greater changes in the near future?  Interesting question, well beyond my ability to even comprehend, much less hazard a guess.

 

Could it just be a random fluke that will see things settle back down shortly?  Yep.  Could be.  That still leaves the question of what was going on over the time of extended model chaos.  In any case, we can probably all agree, that we are a long way from fully understanding the weather. That's what makes it such an interesting hobby or vocation.

[NorthernUpstateSC]

No.  I use malwarebytes and it's a bit better at detecting web threats.  Are you sure you didn't pick up a bug somewhere/install some kind of toolbar?  Also, what browser are you using?

Haven't installed any kind of a toolbar in quite sometime and when I run a scan nothing bug is being detected. I am using google chrome.

[WidreMann]

I want to make a non scientific point about what is going on. It's non scientific because I'm not a scientist, which is why it is here in the banter thread.    Someone with a better background than mine should correct me if I am wrong, but I do not remember a time when the models were so chaotic for such and extended period of time as they are currently, and my memory goes back a long way. Of course, there have always been variations and random bat sh*t crazy runs from time to time, but the shear amount and consistency of the wild swings in all the models over the past month is amazing. 

 

Often when an event unfolds it is clear with model was the first to latch onto the solution several days out and not lose the event for several days prior to it occurring. This usually prompts victory for the GFS or Euro posts in a storm thread.  I haven't seen any model victory posts recently in any thread.  Why is this?  There are a few possibilities tossed around in the forum, some possible some not.

 

The models suck, is one thing you read.  But do they?  Have they suddenly become worse than they were last year, or the year before?  They certainly seem to be sucking at the moment, but is it caused by sudden errors the models? I doubt that, and certainly not all of them at once.  What has changed?

 

Changes in the atmosphere?  That is a possibility, but how do you measure it?  Are our weather patterns not responding to various parameters in the way that models are programmed to expect?  That would explain why all the models seems to be affected.  It wouldn't take much.  A small error at day two can equal bat sh*t crazy come day 10.  If so, is it temporary or does it portend even greater changes in the near future?  Interesting question, well beyond my ability to even comprehend, much less hazard a guess.

 

Could it just be a random fluke that will see things settle back down shortly?  Yep.  Could be.  That still leaves the question of what was going on over the time of extended model chaos.  In any case, we can probably all agree, that we are a long way from fully understanding the weather. That's what makes it such an interesting hobby or vocation.

You could have saved yourself all this typing to say simply that we focus too much on modelology and not meteorology.

[jburns]

Haven't installed any kind of a toolbar in quite sometime and when I run a scan nothing bug is being detected. I am using google chrome.

 

Try clearing your cache.  Make sure you know all your passwords for your various sites if you're not using sonething like Password Box.

[packbacker]

You could have saved yourself all this typing to say simply that we focus too much on modelology and not meteorology.

 

Yeah, but all meteorology got us was a winter forecasts that were supposed to have solid cold in the east, solid blocking and snowy....which we have none of.

[jburns]

You could have saved yourself all this typing to say simply that we focus too much on modelology and not meteorology.

 

Perhaps, but I was making an argument not starting one.

[NorthernUpstateSC]

The only real threat from here is torch and depression!

Maybe my virus protection is trying to keep me from going on the site so, I won't be so depressed after visiting it like I have been and so many others lately.....

[packbacker]

Perhaps, but I was making an argument not starting one.

 

I agree with you, part of the problem is we have had no system to track at all, so we can't compare how the models are handling systems, except that in the 7-10 day period it will throw out a weenie run or two only to completely loose it at day 5.  The Euro is a great example last night.  I don't know what to think.  

 

It will be interesting, it's fairly obvious that NYC is going to finish the month of Dec below 3" and when they do there is some crazy high percentage of those winters that are well below climo.  Just looking at the numbers it appears that you have to go all the way back to the winters of 78 and 79 where they were below 3" of snow in Dec and finished at climo or better.  Interesting, as those are analogs for this winter.

[Shawn]

Haven't installed any kind of a toolbar in quite sometime and when I run a scan nothing bug is being detected. I am using google chrome.

that's odd.  I haven't seen any warnings about this site but..

 

I have an ad-blocker. Maybe one of the ads that are on the website are causing it.  Here's how that works:

 

The owners of this site will put ads on here to help pay for server expenses.  If one of the computers the ad is located on is linked here and has been compromised or reported as being malware, it can trigger your antivirus when you come to this site, but not have anything to do with americanwx at all.. but to an ad that is linked on americanwx.

 

So either way, it's safe on this website but possibly not on one of the ads if clicked.  Generally, the main guys here will fix it (by removing, or changing the ad temporarily) when they become aware to it.  Sometimes, the ad people themselves get it fixed on their end.

[NorthernUpstateSC]

that's odd.  I haven't seen any warnings about this site but..

 

I have an ad-blocker. Maybe one of the ads that are on the website are causing it.  Here's how that works:

 

The owners of this site will put ads on here to help pay for server expenses.  If one of the computers the ad is located on is linked here and has been compromised or reported as being malware, it can trigger your antivirus when you come to this site, but not have anything to do with americanwx at all.. but to an ad that is linked on americanwx.

 

So either way, it's safe on this website but possibly not on one of the ads if clicked.  Generally, the main guys here will fix it (by removing, or changing the ad temporarily) when they become aware to it.  Sometimes, the ad people themselves get it fixed on their end.

I just cleared my cache as Jburns suggested. Hopefully that will do the trick!

[jburns]

I just cleared my cache as Jburns suggested. Hopefully that will do the trick!

 

No guarantees, but it is simple and often works.  Kind of like rebooting your computer when you have a problem, before you start messing around with the config files

[Shawn]

No guarantees, but it is simple and often works.  Kind of like rebooting your computer when you have a problem, before you start messing around with the config files

 

Yep, and you'd be amazed how much space on your hard drive is taken up with all those files.

[WidreMann]

Yep, and you'd be amazed how much space on your hard drive is taken up with all those files.

The actual Cache folder for me is 402 MB and I haven't cleared it in a very long time. It's just not that much.

[Shawn]

The actual Cache folder for me is 402 MB and I haven't cleared it in a very long time. It's just not that much.

 

I've seen people with gigs of data because they didn't know to ever clean their cache.  Imagine someone who looks at a lot of uhm "pictures".  It astounds me just how bad some people's computers really are just plain junked up.  Some newer software that comes standard/browsers are finally managing things better with auto-deletion.

 

 I generally clear all my stuff out (more than just the cache) 5x or more daily.  I hate junk files :|

[Shawn]

You know, not seeing any model talk as soon as they are coming out is something I don't think I have ever seen on the forums for Winter.  Did we avoid the meltdown and just said nvm on Winter?

[WidreMann]

I've seen people with gigs of data because they didn't know to ever clean their cache.  Imagine someone who looks at a lot of uhm "pictures".  It astounds me just how bad some people's computers really are just plain junked up.  Some newer software that comes standard/browsers are finally managing things better with auto-deletion.

 

 I generally clear all my stuff out (more than just the cache) 5x or more daily.  I hate junk files :|

I look at "pictures" and I don't have gigs of cache. In fact, the entirety of the my User Data folder for Chrome, which includes two profiles, along with all sorts of settings, history and other stuff besides cache, is only 2 GB. In an age when you can get a terabyte HDD for under 100 bucks, that's nothing.

[Isopycnic]

I look at "pictures" and I don't have gigs of cache. In fact, the entirety of the my User Data folder for Chrome, which includes two profiles, along with all sorts of settings, history and other stuff besides cache, is only 2 GB. In an age when you can get a terabyte HDD for under 100 bucks, that's nothing.

 

My weather pron gallery cache is larger that that.

[Shawn]

I look at "pictures" and I don't have gigs of cache. In fact, the entirety of the my User Data folder for Chrome, which includes two profiles, along with all sorts of settings, history and other stuff besides cache, is only 2 GB. In an age when you can get a terabyte HDD for under 100 bucks, that's nothing.

 

That's odd.  I had deleted all my history/cache/ etc earlier this morning and have just been browsing a couple websites and Twitter and I'm already back up to 355mb.  :|  My pc is broken I spose'.  Are you using any addons that manage any of that for chrome? 

[WidreMann]

That's odd.  I had deleted all my histroy/cache/ etc earlier this morning and have just been browsing a couple websites and Twitter and I'm already back up to 355mb.  :|  My pc is broken I spose'.  Are you using any addons that manage any of that for chrome?

It's unlikely that Chrome just fills the cache indefinitely until you run out of hard-drive space. It probably fills either to a percentage of free space or to some reasonable amount. Old cache files go away as new space is needed once the limit is reached. This is a very common caching strategy (LRU). As limited proof, the earliest modification date on my cache files is 12/7/2014. I have not cleared the cache in many months.

[Shawn]

It's unlikely that Chrome just fills the cache indefinitely until you run out of hard-drive space. It probably fills either to a percentage of free space or to some reasonable amount. Old cache files go away as new space is needed once the limit is reached. This is a very common caching strategy (LRU). As limited proof, the earliest modification date on my cache files is 12/7/2014. I have not cleared the cache in many months.

Oh.  Okay.  I think I need to change some permissions of my computer then. I've been getting an error on chrome about not being able to access files when I open and close it.  I would assume it's something to do with permissions I have set up that aren't letting files be deleted by it, but lets them go when ccleaner is run in admin mode.

 

I try to run it in such a way in case I ever hit a dirty website, but the way it seems to be working now is it's going to download and keep the file because it has no delete access due to third party app I had set up.  Actually going to uninstall it and see what happens.