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December Banter


mackerel_sky

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The only sure way to get the cold air all y'all are begging is for all the guys (girls, too, if they're begging for snow), to go out this coming week and get a major haircut. MAJOR!!!!  The kind that leaves your ears and neck exposed to the elements, even when wearing a cap or hoodie or your favorite blankie :D My last cut was in late October, and, well, you know how cold it got shortly after that. Our coldest temps of the fall/winter so far. Therefore, haircuts = cold weather.No haircuts = SE Ridge.

 

Took care of that today, Solak.  My last cut was also in late October.

 

The BAI -- Banter Advance Index. Good call Jon. When the Banter thread grows at a higher rate than the Pattern or Storm thread, the BAI increases. The greater the delta of Banter posts over Pattern posts, the higher the BAI. High BAI values have an extremely strong correlation to immediate or forecast mild and/or snowless conditions. The opposite correlation also holds true: Low BAI correlates to immediate or forecast cold and/or snowy conditions.

The BAI is a subset of the PII (Posting Intensity Index). Generally, a high PII correlates to immediate or forecast cold and/or snowy conditions and vice versa. However, if the BAI is extreme, it can skew the PII, resulting in an uncertain signal.

 

I'm not sure I agree with that, CR.  When a particular winter storm is imminent, the BAI can also be quite high, a result of mods moving useless "How much for MBY?" posts from the pattern thread to the banter thread.  Plus, we get multiple copies of DGEX maps and everyone posting their NWS forecast images in the banter thread.  I think low BAI correlates to summer.  The few of us that are around post our rainfall observations in the OBS thread and discuss the overall pattern in the main thread.  There are just a few banter posts sprinkled here and there in the summer months.

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no, the data has been posted many times.

January

February

March

December

The difference between March and December is pretty much measured in tenths of an inch. Depending on where you live March and December can be flip flopped...it's that close... If you think December is not a snow month then you have to throw out March and vice versa. Actually it's more weighted towards the last two weeks in December and the first two weeks of March... They are pretty much equal. Outside the mountians winter is from about December 15th to March 15th... All good climo snow periods peaking somewhere mid-jan to mid-February... Jmo but the facts support it,
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The difference between March and December is pretty much measured in tenths of an inch. Depending on where you live March and December can be flip flopped...it's that close... If you think December is not a snow month then you have to throw out March and vice versa. Actually it's more weighted towards the last two weeks in December and the first two weeks of March... They are pretty much equal. Outside the mountians winter is from about December 15th to March 15th... All good climo snow periods peaking somewhere mid-jan to mid-February... Jmo but the facts support it,

 

If the facts support it, then it's not just your opinion.   :)

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60-70's sound great, if it's not going to snow, it's the second best alternative. B

No disrespect to you or Brick, but I cant help but laugh everytime I hear or read this. Think about what you are saying... if it is in the 60s or 70s it's NEVER going to snow. Let's say we hit 65 tomorrow. You say, " Hey this is nice, since it didn't snow today, I'll take this again tomorrow." Guess what will happen again tomorrow if it's 65 - NO SNOW!

 

We live in an area that gets regular precipitation, even in dry patterns. We pretty much have the precip part covered. You MUST have COLD and precip to get snow. Guess which one we are usually missing.

 

It's kinda like saying "If I'm not going to fall asleep, I'm not going to lay down and close my eyes."  :)

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Took care of that today, Solak.  My last cut was also in late October.

 

 

I'm not sure I agree with that, CR.  When a particular winter storm is imminent, the BAI can also be quite high, a result of mods moving useless "How much for MBY?" posts from the pattern thread to the banter thread.  Plus, we get multiple copies of DGEX maps and everyone posting their NWS forecast images in the banter thread.  I think low BAI correlates to summer.  The few of us that are around post our rainfall observations in the OBS thread and discuss the overall pattern in the main thread.  There are just a few banter posts sprinkled here and there in the summer months.

 

Here's a nice DGEX map for us from tonight.  :thumbsup:   :yikes:

 

104kd4z.gif

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I keep putting banter into the discussion thread.. and I feel like I'm in here. Things are definitely starting to meld together. I guess I have to stop doing the whole multiple tab thing.

Shawn, I'm not sure the tabs on the computer screen are causing the problem here. Maybe the tabs on the cans coming out of the fridge?? :P

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The bright side of epic winter fail!!!

 

I'll drink to that.  I love every flake that falls from the sky, especially over Avery County North Carolina for Beech and Sugar Mountains, but if there is one positive to our "normal" above average temperatures these days, it's heating costs.  

I can't imagine there has been much snow anywhere on the east coast to this point other than the south side of Buffalo.

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Somebody needs to do a PBP of the 12z GFS. Just pretend that we're all looking forward to no cold and snow. Show some enthusiasm for a warm solution and despair at any colder push and/or wintry threat for the SE. We might as well play the hand on the table and have some fun. Who's up for it?

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Somebody needs to do a PBP of the 12z GFS. Just pretend that we're all looking forward to no cold and snow. Show some enthusiasm for a warm solution and despair at any colder push and/or wintry threat for the SE. We might as well play the hand on the table and have some fun. Who's up for it?

That sounds so depressing :(
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