franklin NCwx Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 I don't think Franklin is really worried about the sun angle.lol I'm not. My post was about that crowd that comes out before a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 You're dreamin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 lol I'm not. My post was about that crowd that comes out before a storm. Franklin, we are all about to suffer a meltdown. I feel it coming. I think you and I (along with a few others) will be okay. Weather models are not going to play nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 lol I'm not. My post was about that crowd that comes out before a storm. Haha that's how I read it. Sun angle shmun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 The only sure way to get the cold air all y'all are begging is for all the guys (girls, too, if they're begging for snow), to go out this coming week and get a major haircut. MAJOR!!!! The kind that leaves your ears and neck exposed to the elements, even when wearing a cap or hoodie or your favorite blankie My last cut was in late October, and, well, you know how cold it got shortly after that. Our coldest temps of the fall/winter so far. Therefore, haircuts = cold weather.No haircuts = SE Ridge. Took care of that today, Solak. My last cut was also in late October. The BAI -- Banter Advance Index. Good call Jon. When the Banter thread grows at a higher rate than the Pattern or Storm thread, the BAI increases. The greater the delta of Banter posts over Pattern posts, the higher the BAI. High BAI values have an extremely strong correlation to immediate or forecast mild and/or snowless conditions. The opposite correlation also holds true: Low BAI correlates to immediate or forecast cold and/or snowy conditions. The BAI is a subset of the PII (Posting Intensity Index). Generally, a high PII correlates to immediate or forecast cold and/or snowy conditions and vice versa. However, if the BAI is extreme, it can skew the PII, resulting in an uncertain signal. I'm not sure I agree with that, CR. When a particular winter storm is imminent, the BAI can also be quite high, a result of mods moving useless "How much for MBY?" posts from the pattern thread to the banter thread. Plus, we get multiple copies of DGEX maps and everyone posting their NWS forecast images in the banter thread. I think low BAI correlates to summer. The few of us that are around post our rainfall observations in the OBS thread and discuss the overall pattern in the main thread. There are just a few banter posts sprinkled here and there in the summer months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 no, the data has been posted many times. January February March December The difference between March and December is pretty much measured in tenths of an inch. Depending on where you live March and December can be flip flopped...it's that close... If you think December is not a snow month then you have to throw out March and vice versa. Actually it's more weighted towards the last two weeks in December and the first two weeks of March... They are pretty much equal. Outside the mountians winter is from about December 15th to March 15th... All good climo snow periods peaking somewhere mid-jan to mid-February... Jmo but the facts support it, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 The difference between March and December is pretty much measured in tenths of an inch. Depending on where you live March and December can be flip flopped...it's that close... If you think December is not a snow month then you have to throw out March and vice versa. Actually it's more weighted towards the last two weeks in December and the first two weeks of March... They are pretty much equal. Outside the mountians winter is from about December 15th to March 15th... All good climo snow periods peaking somewhere mid-jan to mid-February... Jmo but the facts support it, If the facts support it, then it's not just your opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Franklin, we are all about to suffer a meltdown. I feel it coming. I think you and I (along with a few others) will be okay. Weather models are not going to play nice. I'm sure we will be fine. Winter is just getting started and we are in a plus enso/PDO winter. Chances will come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Well one fact is that December is fixing to go out with no snow and much milder than November. You can just go ahead and mark off December then to a non snow month this year lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 60-70's sound great, if it's not going to snow, it's the second best alternative. B No disrespect to you or Brick, but I cant help but laugh everytime I hear or read this. Think about what you are saying... if it is in the 60s or 70s it's NEVER going to snow. Let's say we hit 65 tomorrow. You say, " Hey this is nice, since it didn't snow today, I'll take this again tomorrow." Guess what will happen again tomorrow if it's 65 - NO SNOW! We live in an area that gets regular precipitation, even in dry patterns. We pretty much have the precip part covered. You MUST have COLD and precip to get snow. Guess which one we are usually missing. It's kinda like saying "If I'm not going to fall asleep, I'm not going to lay down and close my eyes." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Took care of that today, Solak. My last cut was also in late October. I'm not sure I agree with that, CR. When a particular winter storm is imminent, the BAI can also be quite high, a result of mods moving useless "How much for MBY?" posts from the pattern thread to the banter thread. Plus, we get multiple copies of DGEX maps and everyone posting their NWS forecast images in the banter thread. I think low BAI correlates to summer. The few of us that are around post our rainfall observations in the OBS thread and discuss the overall pattern in the main thread. There are just a few banter posts sprinkled here and there in the summer months. Here's a nice DGEX map for us from tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Here's a nice DGEX map for us from tonight. Right on schedule, James! I love it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 I keep putting banter into the discussion thread.. and I feel like I'm in here. Things are definitely starting to meld together. I guess I have to stop doing the whole multiple tab thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 There was a bunch of data to support the coldest winter ever seen, and we see how that is working out Not the same thing, but you already know that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 You know wintry pattern isn't promising when you're looking for severe weather potential to chase in far Eastern NC rather than a snowstorm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 I keep putting banter into the discussion thread.. and I feel like I'm in here. Things are definitely starting to meld together. I guess I have to stop doing the whole multiple tab thing. Shawn, I'm not sure the tabs on the computer screen are causing the problem here. Maybe the tabs on the cans coming out of the fridge?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 AM observations -- Recent posts are now talking about the 15th into as late as early Feb for cold to come to the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 AM observations -- Recent posts are now talking about the 15th into as late as early Feb for cold to come to the SE Winter cancel The winter thaw will be awesome this year! I expect 6-12" of rain between now and Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Winter cancel The winter thaw will be awesome this year! I expect 6-12" of rain between now and Feb. There is so many thinks, maybe, and what if, should, should not, and cans in the discussion thread. Now we are waiting till February. Oh well. Bring on Summer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 27, 2014 Author Share Posted December 27, 2014 The bright side of epic winter fail!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 AM observations -- Recent posts are now talking about the 15th into as late as early Feb for cold to come to the SE If it comes at all :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Maybe we can pull off a freak 10 day pattern like Jan 2000, where the stars align, we get good blocking, active SS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 The bright side of epic winter fail!!! I'll drink to that. I love every flake that falls from the sky, especially over Avery County North Carolina for Beech and Sugar Mountains, but if there is one positive to our "normal" above average temperatures these days, it's heating costs. I can't imagine there has been much snow anywhere on the east coast to this point other than the south side of Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Maybe we can pull off a freak 10 day pattern like Jan 2000, where the stars align, we get good blocking, active SS. Maybe Ed McMahon will stop by with $1,000,000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Somebody needs to do a PBP of the 12z GFS. Just pretend that we're all looking forward to no cold and snow. Show some enthusiasm for a warm solution and despair at any colder push and/or wintry threat for the SE. We might as well play the hand on the table and have some fun. Who's up for it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Winter cancel The winter thaw will be awesome this year! I expect 6-12" of rain between now and Feb. Yep looking forward to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Somebody needs to do a PBP of the 12z GFS. Just pretend that we're all looking forward to no cold and snow. Show some enthusiasm for a warm solution and despair at any colder push and/or wintry threat for the SE. We might as well play the hand on the table and have some fun. Who's up for it?That sounds so depressing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 That sounds so depressing It'll be sorta anti-fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 Gas is 2.20 here. Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 27, 2014 Share Posted December 27, 2014 The CFS is dead to me.... Long live the JMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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