Cold Rain Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 On 12/18/2014 at 5:53 PM, GAStorm said: If we get a stout -EPO shouldn't that prevent a SE ridge? I thought that is what happened last year whenever a -PNA was present? A -EPO doesn't have to always be accompanied by a +PNA. You could have troughing in the west and a -EPO. The -EPO is favorable for establishing cold in our hemisphere, filtering it into Canada. That's a great start. But how far south the cold gets transported is another story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 On 12/18/2014 at 6:17 PM, Cold Rain said: A -EPO doesn't have to always be accompanied by a +PNA. You could have troughing in the west and a -EPO. The -EPO is favorable for establishing cold in our hemisphere, filtering it into Canada. That's a great start. But how far south the cold gets transported is another story. Ok. I remember there was a lot of talk on a SE ridge this time last year and someone mentioned the -EPO played a big role in preventing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 On 12/18/2014 at 6:02 PM, Queencitywx said: There was also the massive SSW event. Hopefully another one is on track for this winter as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 My reaction when I read the discussion thread and see people in such agony over every changing OP run, convinced that winter is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Euro now says winter come on down! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 On 12/18/2014 at 7:05 PM, Brick Tamland said: Euro now says winter come on down! What did it show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 On 12/18/2014 at 7:11 PM, rduwx said: What did it show? Haha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Cold and blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 On 12/18/2014 at 6:17 PM, Cold Rain said: A -EPO doesn't have to always be accompanied by a +PNA. You could have troughing in the west and a -EPO. The -EPO is favorable for establishing cold in our hemisphere, filtering it into Canada. That's a great start. But how far south the cold gets transported is another story. Correct, I see that's why DT is having some heartache, the Euro/EPS show a solid -PNA, the GEFS has it going slightly positive which is a world a difference for us. The Euro has cold now dumping really into the central part of the country, not on the west coast, the GEFS looks great for us. We will have to see who wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 On 12/18/2014 at 7:17 PM, packbacker said: Correct, I see that's why DT is having some heartache, the Euro/EPS show a solid -PNA, the GEFS has it going slightly positive which is a world a difference for us. The Euro has cold now dumping really into the central part of the country, not on the west coast, the GEFS looks great for us. We will have to see who wins. I can only see the Euro products through 240. So seeing a -PNA around 240 may cause undo stress, since it's likely it will progress into something else after that frame. But like I said, I can't see beyond that, so I don't know what the ENS show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 On 12/18/2014 at 7:11 PM, rduwx said: What did it show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 On 12/18/2014 at 7:20 PM, Cold Rain said: I can only see the Euro products through 240. So seeing a -PNA around 240 may cause undo stress, since it's likely it will progress into something else after that frame. But like I said, I can't see beyond that, so I don't know what the ENS show. Here you go...2 days ago the EPS was even further west. Will see what today's 12z EPS shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Thanks Pack. Hopefully, it continues to tick east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 On 12/18/2014 at 5:05 PM, tnweathernut said: Lol at DT.....@DTVaWeatherman: "I am beginning to have doubts.... when does the cold air REALLY get into the east and stays ?" My whole point with this tweet post............ Flip flopping like a fish out of water should be relegated to the individual runs of the OP models, not professional meteorologist that charge for their services. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 On 12/18/2014 at 4:46 PM, CandymanColumbusGA said: Still amazes me how he never got a splinter in his eye during all that. Talk about luck!!! Something we don't have... CGI is a magical thing. Kind of like computer driven forecast models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I predict a dramatic, colossal bust this year. It will be December 2000 and March 2001 bottled up into one tear-jerking bust of biblical proportions. It will make Snowquester look like a huge win. At least they got slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 On 12/18/2014 at 8:01 PM, superjames1992 said: I predict a dramatic, colossal bust this year. It will be December 2000 and March 2001 bottled up into one tear-jerking bust of biblical proportions. It will make Snowquester look like a huge win. At least they got slop. I am going down in flames then, this will be a snowy winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Aw heck, why not pile on. Sure glad we had the 4" to 11" snowfall in NC Mountains back on Halloween Weekend. In my core I said, this can't be good for a great winter can it as last time it happened with Hurricane Sandy Snow we all know what happened that winter. Still, my philosophy is to get outside and enjoy EACH snow event in the High Country each winter and treat each one like it might be the only good one for the winter, cause at the end of the day, we never know. Hoping for the best and that everyone on the board gets their fill and fair share of snow this year! One thing for sure, the Good Man upstairs has the upper hand ! I still think there is time for winter to work in our favor if we give it some time. Now if we are having this same discussion on January 20, things will be far different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 On 12/18/2014 at 8:05 PM, packbacker said: I am going down in flames then, this will be a snowy winter. I don't mean the pattern busts. I mean we get a massive storm bust. We're due, IMHO. Time for a forecast of 12" and get wind-driven tropical rain showers/drizzle. I speak in jest, of course, but it could happen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 18, 2014 Author Share Posted December 18, 2014 On 12/18/2014 at 8:14 PM, superjames1992 said: I don't mean the pattern busts. I mean we get a massive storm bust. We're due, IMHO. Time for a forecast of 12" and get wind-driven tropical rain showers/drizzle. I speak in jest, of course, but it could happen! I basically lived this last Feb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Mariettawx was right earlier. As soon as the Euro shows cold, it's being discussed. Earlier when it was showing a SE Ridge, someone said 10 day OP runs are useless. Good news though that it has come around. Maybe it will stay consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 On 12/18/2014 at 2:59 AM, BIG FROSTY said: Here's JBurns singing as he delivers the mail, He such a happy mail man!!! Merry Christmas JB http://youtu.be/9jQy_ppY2bI And here is LITTLE FROSTY as he is replaced by a toy. Merry Christmas plow boy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 Hello +PNA in EPS! Caving to GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 On 12/18/2014 at 8:34 PM, jburns said: And here is LITTLE FROSTY as he is replaced by a toy. Merry Christmas plow boy. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RONALD B Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=818004181592582&set=p.818004181592582&type=1 oh so close hello cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 On 12/18/2014 at 8:34 PM, jburns said: And here is LITTLE FROSTY as he is replaced by a toy. Merry Christmas plow boy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 On 12/18/2014 at 6:01 PM, donsutherland1 said: Some ensemble members are pointing to a PNA-. I suspect that the worst of the cold outbreak will likely start in the central CONUS and then expand eastward. If some of the more extreme AO forecasts verify, a long-lasting cold period could evolve for the eastern third-to-half of the CONUS, with a few short periods of milder weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 When I need a good laugh I read this thread and it never disappoints.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 On 12/18/2014 at 9:52 PM, downeastnc said: When I need a good laugh I read this thread and it never disappoints.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 I feel like we made progress today. Well done, gang! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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