metalicwx366 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 On 12/15/2014 at 4:49 AM, mackerel_sky said: Will be spending three days in Pigeon Forge having an old fashioned Dollywood holiday celebration 12/28-12/30. Can't wait to be at an amusement park with some snow or cold, good times!Nah, it will be seasonal. The cold will be showing up around the 1/9-1-11 starting on the 28th. Maybe a SSW can help dislodge the PV on this side of Earth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 On 12/15/2014 at 4:47 AM, metalicwx366 said: I told you this a few days ago and you said something about a Legion of gloom or something in GA. Because you always say the same crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 On 12/15/2014 at 4:56 AM, superjames1992 said: I can just imagine: 1.99" - Wow, this is going to be a memorable storm! Repeat of Jan 2000!!!!! WOO!!! 2.38" - Wow, game-on! SNOWMAGGEDON!!! 2.77" - Can we break 30"?!?!?! 2.39" - Still game-on... just some waffling. 1.46" - Still a major storm. We're gonna get slammed! 0.97" - We can still be happy with our 6-10"... right? 0.28" - 0.06" - That's just Mother Nature's way of reminding us we're in Ol' North State Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 On 12/15/2014 at 4:59 AM, Brick Tamland said: Because you always say the same crap.That's the first time I have said that this year. How is that saying the same crap? You really have no room to talk about saying the same crap. You must be confusing me with the pattern change posts in the winter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 All I want for Christmas is for reality to look just like the beautiful WB clown maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 On 12/15/2014 at 4:41 AM, Brick Tamland said: Man, there are some strong signs, though, for something good between Christmas and the new year.Yep, the signs all point to lots of cold rain and the cold finally showing up , in January ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 On 12/15/2014 at 11:56 AM, mackerel_sky said: Yep, the signs all point to lots of cold rain and the cold finally showing up , in January ! Whatever. Based on what I have read on the boards, things still look great for a pattern change between Christmas and New Year's, and for some real winter weather threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 On 12/15/2014 at 2:54 PM, Brick Tamland said: Whatever. Based on what I have read on the boards, things still look great for a pattern change between Christmas and New Year's, and for some real winter weather threats. Lock it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 On 12/15/2014 at 11:56 AM, mackerel_sky said: Yep, the signs all point to lots of cold rain and the cold finally showing up , in January ! I'm glad I live in the Mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I guess we are tracking this saturday storm, but just thinking this is going to trend a little warmer as we go through the week....there is such a lack of cold air in the eastern U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 On 12/15/2014 at 4:35 PM, griteater said: I guess we are tracking this saturday storm, but just thinking this is going to trend a little warmer as we go through the week....there is such a lack of cold air in the eastern U.S. Unless it bombs south and east of the area, it's going to be mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 The holiday season looks to be very wet. One system after another. Too bad there is no cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 On 12/15/2014 at 4:35 PM, griteater said: I guess we are tracking this saturday storm, but just thinking this is going to trend a little warmer as we go through the week....there is such a lack of cold air in the eastern U.S. I agree. The high pressure shown several days ago on the Euro made it to 1032 in a fairly favorable spot. Since then it seems to be weakening and moving a little further north with time.............guessing as a result of a less stout or less favorably placed 50/50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 On 12/15/2014 at 4:38 PM, Cold Rain said: Unless it bombs south and east of the area, it's going to be mostly rain.Dynamic cooling will save us, the models just can't pick up on that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 On 12/15/2014 at 4:38 PM, Cold Rain said: Unless it bombs south and east of the area, it's going to be mostly rain. Nothing remotely interesting until after christmas IMO. I am really confused as to why there's a storm thread really. I like the pattern progression through this morning, it's getting closer. I'm fine with the hammer dropping after 1/1 with the transition after christmas.... If GEFS is right we'll have a nice -NAO/EPO/AO and +PNA. I can't remember the last time we had that. If we keep the active STJ, geez louise things are going to be fun around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 I'm expecting a miller fu for my neck of the woods! That way things can only improve. Glad to have rain chances, it's still a little dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Holy crap! Euro goes MILLER A time! Let's see the clown maps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 On 12/15/2014 at 6:30 PM, packfan98 said: Holy crap! Euro goes MILLER A time! Let's see the clown maps! (Entertainment) WB clown gives INT 8.3", GSO 8.1", Asheboro 4.1". RDU 6.4", Rocky Mount 10.4". DCA gets 1"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 From the Mid-Atlantic thread.... (always a good follow during winter if you like entertainment) On 12/15/2014 at 6:31 PM, zwyts said: My chase target just went from Winchester to Winston-Salem... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 On 12/15/2014 at 6:37 PM, superjames1992 said: From the Mid-Atlantic thread.... (always a good follow during winter if you like entertainment)zwyts can stay at my house anytime.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 On 12/15/2014 at 6:35 PM, superjames1992 said: WB clown gives INT 8.3", GSO 8.1", Asheboro 4.1". RDU 6.4", Rocky Mount 10.4". DCA gets 1"... Cool, I'll say that it's showing 6" for mby. That's the most fantasy snow I have had this season, beating 5" on a run in November. MMM....I LOVE FANTASY SNOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 On 12/15/2014 at 6:39 PM, Isopycnic said: zwyts can stay at my house anytime.... He seems like a cool guy, honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 On 12/15/2014 at 6:35 PM, superjames1992 said: (Entertainment) WB clown gives INT 8.3", GSO 8.1", Asheboro 4.1". RDU 6.4", Rocky Mount 10.4". DCA gets 1"... how did it look for HKY? Too far west for good QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 On 12/15/2014 at 4:38 PM, Cold Rain said: Unless it bombs south and east of the area, it's going to be mostly rain. We only get but a couple of snow events, don't want to waste one on some rain/snow mix with ground temps in the 50's. Would rather this track up the apps and shake things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 On 12/15/2014 at 7:22 PM, packbacker said: We only get but a couple of snow events, don't want to waste one on some rain/snow mix with ground temps in the 50's. Would rather this track up the apps and shake things up. Yeah, agree. How much does the clown give me in SE Wake? I'm going to keep track of fantasy snow this year, so I need to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 CLT looks like a sloppy 2-3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 On 12/15/2014 at 7:22 PM, packbacker said: We only get but a couple of snow events, don't want to waste one on some rain/snow mix with ground temps in the 50's. Would rather this track up the apps and shake things up. I agree pack...If this would cut up the apps we would be in a lot better shape for the systems following this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Regarding GFS Parallel verification... On 12/15/2014 at 7:30 PM, dtk said: I don't necessarily think that the PGFS is some great implementation, but the statement that the Day 6 verification scores "were horrendous" is a stretch. For the past 30 days it is statistically tied with the operational GFS....well I guess you could call that "horrendous". What worries me (personally) is that it was pretty poor in a few high impact events this season, including significant boundary layer temperature biases for the marginal events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 On 12/15/2014 at 7:37 PM, packbacker said: 2 of the top 4 CIP's 5h analogs...just saying...I wish I could post the EuroWx snow map which some people feel like is a realistic snow map Edit: The Dec,2002 ice storm is in the analog set too. I didn't check all of them, just ones that I remembered. This is one of my favorite storms. I was a senior in high school and we had a blast w/ this storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 On 12/15/2014 at 7:37 PM, burgertime said: CLT looks like a sloppy 2-3 inches. Inset joke about penis size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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