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December obs/disco/short range


Ian

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This front was better than 90% of the sorry excuses for east coast fronts. Down 26 degrees from the high.

Plse correct me if I'm incorrect but this is what I get from the 0Z NAM:

The 925 mb temp. chart maintains a cold wedge east of the Appalachians until 18Z tomorrow.

The 700 to 850 mb chart is warm nose city all the way to northern PA.

Conclusion: light sleet and freezing rain/freezing drizzle for NVA/NDC/CMD.

Maybe a few flakes late night with wet bulb depression early in the process of saturating the column. Also, many areas may have more

freezing rain than sleet at sunrise.

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00z NAM has the QPF max in a small swath in the southern DC suburbs including EZF back SW to CHO... sleet sounding ftw

 

The 00Z NAM sounding has warmed and the warm layer wet bulb is 3.3C which usually means the snowflake completely melts, when that happens it does not refreeze and the result it rain.   Both DCA abd IAd now have the warm layer too warm to support sleet if they are right.  It's close as below 3C in the warm layer will get you sleet.   FDK and MRB still are sleet sounding through 18Z. 

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The 00Z NAM sounding has warmed and the warm layer wet bulb is 3.3C which usually means the snowflake completely melts, when that happens it does not refreeze and the result it rain.   Both DCA abd IAd now have the warm layer too warm to support sleet if they are right.  It's close as below 3C in the warm layer will get you sleet.   FDK and MRB still are sleet sounding through 18Z. 

 

I did not know that Wes, thanks for that information.  Though sleet is better than cold rain ofc ;)

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