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December obs/disco/short range


Ian

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I think it's pretty unlikely that we see much in the way of winter weather with this.  It seems the cold is really struggling to make much southward progress, and now the GFS, both versions seem quite a bit warmer to me than they did at 0z.

 

I think a damp, raw, chilly day is the most likely outcome tomorrow.

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I think it's pretty unlikely that we see much in the way of winter weather with this.  It seems the cold is really struggling to make much southward progress, and now the GFS, both versions seem quite a bit warmer to me than they did at 0z.

 

I think a damp, raw, chilly day is the most likely outcome tomorrow.

This is probably the most likely.  For folks like you and HGR, I'd say some sleet mixing in at times.  For us lowland folks, cold, cold rain.  Always err on the side of lockout when it comes to marginal events down here.

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I think it's pretty unlikely that we see much in the way of winter weather with this.  It seems the cold is really struggling to make much southward progress, and now the GFS, both versions seem quite a bit warmer to me than they did at 0z.

 

I think a damp, raw, chilly day is the most likely outcome tomorrow.

 

not sure about that...

 

12z GFS

 

 

Winchester 

 

post-66-0-58641000-1417450731_thumb.png

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This is probably the most likely.  For folks like you and HGR, I'd say some sleet mixing in at times.  For us lowland folks, cold, cold rain.  Always err on the side of lockout when it comes to marginal events down here.

 

with low level temps in the mid 20s we'll see some frozen...probably won't do much but sound cool and maybe coat a car top

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0z had the main snow/sleet band just nw of the cities but 12z seems to have shifted it well north into central pa. Not even interested up here anymore. When temps are marginally cold enough precip looks disorganized and light. Looks like a few hours of light sleet/snow with no accum to cold rain even here to me.

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0z had the main snow/sleet band just nw of the cities but 12z seems to have shifted it well north into central pa. Not even interested up here anymore. When temps are marginally cold enough precip looks disorganized and light. Looks like a few hours of light sleet/snow with no accum to cold rain even here to me.

 

this was always an event focused on NW VA/WV

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this was always an event focused on NW VA/WV

been too busy to pay much attention. Just know this morning I did glance at last nights guidance and most did show a decent period of snow/sleet up my way. 12z guidance shifted it well north. Temps didn't change much but it shifted the more organized precip up into central pa through upstate ny. A pretty big shift for one run. Without precip it doesn't much matter how cold it is.

Edit: I guess if you like seeing a glaze of ice it matters but I really could care less about that.

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the Euro runs from yesterday and last night should have killed it sooner as they have really been warm at all levels

Can't imagine why....it's only 70 outside.

I call that a terrible forecast....13 degree bust so far. Really elevates my confidence in all modeled temp forecasts.

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