mitchnick Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 I like these types of events more trouble than they're worth imho unless they turn into a 3-6" event ...which they rarely do east of I95, hence my complacency Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 more trouble than they're worth imho unless they turn into a 3-6" event ...which they rarely do east of I95, hence my complacency I agree with Winterwxluvr. I like these events because unlike most events around here, they only usually get better as we get closer in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 It always seems to take the models a little time to figure out the CAD situation on these type of events. And as has already been said these events almost always trend colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Sounds like a good setup for map girl and sparky to get a "surprise" 5 inches of snow. I am figuring in 35 degree drizzle for the rest of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 looking at the Plymouth site (so limited dtails), it looks like the 0 850 line gets to BWI before it likely retreats and precip is in central VA all in all, naso good for snow, maybe sleet or zr away from I95 would be my guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 It always seems to take the models a little time to figure out the CAD situation on these type of events. And as has already been said these events almost always trend colder. Do they really trend colder or does the CAD last longer than progged? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Do they really trend colder or does the CAD last longer than progged? Both. Usually the models keep getting colder as you get closer and still aren't cold enough. And it takes longer to get the cold out. This isn't the typical "it's already cold" CAD situation IMO. Hard to say how it unfolds. I guess the Euro wasn't much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 I guess the Euro wasn't much Has some light precip with 850s below freezing and surface temps in the mid 30s per Wunderground. Wunderground calls a little of it snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Has some light precip with 850s below freezing and surface temps in the mid 30s per Wunderground. Wunderground calls a little of it snow. And another similar setup a few days later. This kind of stuff won't be resolved until very short range. Hp moving across to the n in tandem with precip and marginal temps is super tricky (stating obvious. Lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 And another similar setup a few days later. This kind of stuff won't be resolved until very short range. Hp moving across to the n in tandem with precip and marginal temps is super tricky (stating obvious. Lol) a little more interesting in the day 9.5-10 setup imho, but just another day 10 thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 a little more interesting in the day 9.5-10 setup imho, but just another day 10 thing 50/50 type feature, sprawling hp underneath in the eastern half of Canada, western ridge pushing from CA all the way to n of ak. I can see your interest for at least the next 12 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Haven't paid attention to this at all; snow possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 18z NAM is hmmmm... RaleighWx snow maps show a swath of 3-4 inches of snow in N VA... but I guess thats more sleet and snow combined? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Haven't paid attention to this at all; snow possible? 3-6 for you. So just another week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 18z NAM is hmmmm... RaleighWx snow maps show a swath of 3-4 inches of snow in N VA... but I guess thats more sleet and snow combined? Soundings look like all sleet to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 ^ was just going to post the same thing. All sleet verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/3295_100.gif 18z RGEM at 48 hrs is wet... dunno if its ice, snow, or rain yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/3295_100.gif 18z RGEM at 48 hrs is wet... dunno if its ice, snow, or rain yet that's be sleet as well, if even that, as the dotted line is well into PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 I didn't think we did "sleet storms" down here... so thats partially why i asked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 3-6 for you. So just another week. Sweet. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Tuesday morning rush hour is going to be terrible if that sounding at 12z TUES for DCA is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Para has the 32 line running 95 at 7am and precip falling again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Tuesday morning rush hour is going to be terrible if that sounding at 12z TUES for DCA is right As will Monday Wednesday Thursday and Friday mornings rush hour regardless of soundings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Para has the 32 line running 95 at 7am and precip falling again OT but where can I find the para GFS? Haven't seen it on instantwxmaps, or NCEP, or E-wall. Any sites without a paywall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Just read the NWS discussion. They're subtracting a couple of degrees from the guidance, which would out much of the area under freezing at the surface. And they ruled out snow. Warm layer seems assured. Say freezing drz could continue into Wed morning for the hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 OT but where can I find the para GFS? Haven't seen it on instantwxmaps, or NCEP, or E-wall. Any sites without a paywall? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 OT but where can I find the para GFS? Haven't seen it on instantwxmaps, or NCEP, or E-wall. Any sites without a paywall? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ MDstorm http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/ Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Thanks also mageval.ncep.noaa.gov Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Para has the 32 line running 95 at 7am and precip falling again Yeah. Xbox would imply a little snow to start maybe for places N&W of 95. Maybe even 1" of accumulation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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