EastCoast NPZ Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Our last four Decembers at BWI (including this one) have temperature departures of +5.5, +6.0, +2.9, and +3.6 (so far). Snow totals for the 4 years combined were a whopping 4.5 inches... there may be a 5 year December snow futility record in there if combined with Dec. 2010 but I'd have to check. Also... of the 42 Decembers that finished with less than a half inch of snow, only 11 of those (26.2%) ended up with above average snowfall for the season. The entire dataset for BWI has 132 winters, with 61 of those (46.2%) having above average snowfall. Happy New Year. Those are some depressing stats. Minus some BIG event later on in the winter, I don't think there is any chance of matching climo, much less exceeding it. This just has the all too common feel of previous wretched winters when we're stuck in terrible patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 30, 2014 Author Share Posted December 30, 2014 DisgustingSo much for all that 'not a torch'talk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 30, 2014 Author Share Posted December 30, 2014 I haven't checked myself but someone on CWG mentioned DC's lowest low for Dec could be the warmest on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 So much for all that 'not a torch'talk But remember, Dec is no big deal anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Had to laugh at the expressions of dismay on Channel 11 in Baltimore at how "cold" it was this morning. That would be 36 at the time of the complaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Had to laugh at the expressions of dismay on Channel 11 in Baltimore at how "cold" it was this morning. That would be 36 at the time of the complaining. Or modestly above normal for sunrise in late December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Had to laugh at the expressions of dismay on Channel 11 in Baltimore at how "cold" it was this morning. That would be 36 at the time of the complaining. Yeah that's only a +11 departure on the low, wow what a cold snap lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Snow showers down this way and in Richmond earlier this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 How many called for Dec to look like this? Didn't the CFSv2 show exactly that back in the fall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Didn't the CFSv2 show exactly that back in the fall? it did the last week or 2 it went colder for JAN but now it is back to normal and the warm area to the south is creeping north.....but, it's getting wetter for JAN fwiw FEB is cold this winter has felt like and is starting to look like 94/95 NINO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 30, 2014 Author Share Posted December 30, 2014 CFS showed everything at one point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 We hiked Old Rag out near Sperryville. We saw a lot of evidence of bear activity including scat and tracks, but this was the only one we saw. Just a beautiful day. For the obs thread, a high of 3,284'. Great hike, isn't it? Awesome that you got a bear sighting. I hiked that 2 days after T-day. Saw lots of tracks due to the snow, but no wildlife. Amazing scenery though. Hit the snow-line about 1000' or so, and by about 1600' got to full snow depth of about 8 inches. We took the backside route (up the fire trail) to the peak and stayed on the shade side. Trail was treacherous and made for a great adventure. Best hiking of my life. me and my brother (foreground) nearing the peak. A view looking west on the way up the trail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 CFS showed everything at one point. lol. true, but it seemed like it was pretty consistent with that look for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 this winter has felt like and is starting to look like 94/95 NINO I'd settle for writing this season off today if we could count on rolling that analog forward 12 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 it did the last week or 2 it went colder for JAN but now it is back to normal and the warm area to the south is creeping north.....but, it's getting wetter for JAN fwiw FEB is cold this winter has felt like and is starting to look like 94/95 NINO Warm winter with one good storm in Feb. I can see that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 CFS showed everything at one point. in most years, that would be a correct statement, but not this year starting with the first time the month of DEC came intgo range of the monthly forecasts, CFS2 has been in the normal range twice and AN 3 or 4 months in OCT, when many people started issuing their seasonal forecasts, CFS2 was above normal for DEC and never lost that AN forecast its last forecast for the month of DEC was issued in early DEC and is below say what you want, CFS2 has not forecasted BN for the combined months of DEC-FEB at all this year, so it has not done bad so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 All hail the CFSv2 ! lol. Time to ride that horse from now on. Winterwxlvr will be so happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Getting a below normal winter (DJF) is going to be tough when we've got a +3-4 on the board for the 1st month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 All hail the CFSv2 ! lol. Time to ride that horse from now on. Winterwxlvr will be so happy. well, "if" it is right with its JAN forecast, be prepared for more of the same (no snow of consequence), only a little AN temps I sure as he!! hope it is wrong, but has been persistently warmer than normal contrary to most winter forecasts this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Didn't the CFSv2 show exactly that back in the fall? That map looks impossible. I'm in denial and refuse to believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Getting a below normal winter (DJF) is going to be tough when we've got a +3-4 on the board for the 1st month. Safe to say everyone in the east has resigned to just figure out how to salvage a disaster in general. If we get a nice wintry period that drops an adv and warn level event we can all pack it up and start discussing wedge season. By wedge I mean CAD spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Getting a below normal winter (DJF) is going to be tough when we've got a +3-4 on the board for the 1st month. Don't forget this is the first month of JB's -6 departure winter... I fully expect to get a -20 departure in February now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 30, 2014 Author Share Posted December 30, 2014 in most years, that would be a correct statement, but not this year starting with the first time the month of DEC came intgo range of the monthly forecasts, CFS2 has been in the normal range twice and AN 3 or 4 months in OCT, when many people started issuing their seasonal forecasts, CFS2 was above normal for DEC and never lost that AN forecast its last forecast for the month of DEC was issued in early DEC and is below say what you want, CFS2 has not forecasted BN for the combined months of DEC-FEB at all this year, so it has not done bad so far I don't look at it religiously. It was certainly advertising a warm December early in the month for pretty much everyone in the country. Then again it was also advertising the pattern change around now too. But so was other long range guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Thank god for elevation! even with that torch map there is still an 80" snow pack in the mountains here. glad my last winter in the MA wasn't this one. Lock it in .. February will be rock-in in the east... How many called for Dec to look like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 With the sunshine, a rather nice late December day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 That map looks impossible. I'm in denial and refuse to believe it. The CFS busted badly in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 BWI is +3.6F on the month, DCA is +4.4F. Yesterday was a dark, chilly winter day with a couple of flurries falling from the sky. It was also a +9 at DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Yesterday was a dark, chilly winter day with a couple of flurries falling from the sky. It was also a +9 at DCA. I blame high daily minimums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 How many called for Dec to look like this? CFS had it back in September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 A really spectacular sunset tonight. Awesome combination of colors in a clear sky. I just got back inside from watching it. Chilly out there. 34.7/19 after a high of 40.4F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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