Deck Pic Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Canadian is warm but still has some frozen for the more elevated far NW burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 We do sneaky well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 00z UKIE has precip over us from Monday night into Tuesday night... can't really tell if its wintry precip or cold rain... but has a good amount of QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Para has been stready with a decent but small precip max crossing the mountains sw of us for a number of runs now. 12z run obviously has the wettest and furthest n solution yet. Similar setup late week as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 00z UKIE has precip over us from Monday night into Tuesday night... can't really tell if its wintry precip or cold rain... but has a good amount of QPF Very warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 euro is probably some snow/mix for the burbs..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Very warm. Slightly weaker high on the Ukie compared to other globals. That could make some of the difference. I think globals are good to look at in terms of high placement and strength at this juncture. They seem to hone in on the surface a bit better within 36 hours. The higher resolution models are best for overall temperature trends and analysis, but of course, we can't wait till the storm is on top of us to do that. I say look at past history. This reminds me of a few sneaky events of the past few years where globals under estimated CAD signatures on small overrunning events. I think this might still be N&W of I95 problem, but it wouldn't surprise me if say areas in AA county come in a little cooler than forecasted. I personally like the Winchester/Hagerstown area for this event since they stay cooler a lot longer on CAD events. Let's see how today's runs play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 euro is probably some snow/mix for the burbs..... WXbell snow maps have general 1-2" over the region. FWTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Slightly weaker high on the Ukie compared to other globals. That could make some of the difference. I think globals are good to look at in terms of high placement and strength at this juncture. They seem to hone in on the surface a bit better within 36 hours. The higher resolution models are best for overall temperature trends and analysis, but of course, we can't wait till the storm is on top of us to do that. I say look at past history. This reminds me of a few sneaky events of the past few years where globals under estimated CAD signatures on small overrunning events. I think this might still be N&W of I95 problem, but it wouldn't surprise me if say areas in AA county come in a little cooler than forecasted. I personally like the Winchester/Hagerstown area for this event since they stay cooler a lot longer on CAD events. Let's see how today's runs play out. That's pretty likely to be the end result.....advisory mix event for FDK-HGR-MRB...and likely nothing to write home about for immediate DC metro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 CAD is the one thing that seems to consistently trend in our favor and look colder the closer we get to gametime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Euro ens mean has a stripe of .3 qpf through our area. All of KY has .5+. Looks more similar to the para's idea than the euro op. Eta: I take that back. Supports euro op. I didn't look closely at last night's run before posting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 GFS would be a complete disaster for Tuesday PM commute. Maybe the euro will catch on today. Euro finally caught on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 6z Atari is sleety and has a decent amount of precip, ~0.25". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Euro finally caught on. Looks like this mornings GFS got warm on me out here...looks like plain rain to me on the 6z anyway...I haven't been paying much attention though so it's good the euro has some frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Looks like this mornings GFS got warm on me out here...looks like plain rain to me on the 6z anyway...I haven't been paying much attention though so it's good the euro has some frozen It's probably the classic area near and west of IAD with elevation, but the GFS this time of year struggles with the low levels. It was abysmal here in the last event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 It's probably the classic area near and west of IAD with elevation, but the GFS this time of year struggles with the low levels. It was abysmal here in the last event. Thanks....I'm about 12 miles NW of IAD....pretty interesting start to the season if we get another event so early... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Latest SREF and NAM trended to a better event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Second wwxluvr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 The start time of this looks decent, I still think tomorrow's temps might matter a little bit. NAM has highs tomorrow 60-63. Although after seeing 3/16/07 and how we almost had a major snow and/or ice storm out of that after being in the 70s 2 days earlier, after 1-2" of rain AND a bad sun angle. I feel it is very possible to get something decent. 12z NAM barely misses being snow verbatim. But does have some IP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 I don't think I've ever seen a CAD wedge underperform relative to guidance, so there's that I guess.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 12z GFS is close to dropping a few inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 And a pellet fest for the morning commute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 If we can get the 850 level to be just a tad colder (like 1C) we would be talking about snow instead of sleet. The sneaky warm layer on the 12z GFS sounding at DCA at hr 51 is in the 800-875 layer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Mt Parkton icicles on the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Raleigh snow maps show 1-2 inches of snow in N VA/DC/parts of MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Para has cad Sig and freezing line running 95 at 7am. Precip further south than its lower IQ cousin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 This is what I wrote on my facebook page. A tricky forecast is shaping up for Tuesday morning. A strong high pressure system will be passing to our north as a very weak upper level impulse approaches us. Right now most models are predicting light precipitation will be spreading across the area Tuesday morning. Temperatures today may max out near 60 and Monday should be well in the 50s making it a tough call as to whether we'll get down to freezing Tuesday morning. It's another case with marginal temperatures but the event still could produce a period of early morning sleet, snow or rain before changing to rain later in the day. Precipitation amounts should be on the light side. The position of the high is a good one for cold air damming and damming situations sometimes trend colder as the we get closer to the event. Locations well north and west of the city have the highest chances of getting winter weather. It's a situation worth monitoring since the precipitation could occur during the rush. Right now it doesn't look like temperatures will be cold enough to seriously impact the rush in and around DC due to the marginal temperatures and light precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 30, 2014 Author Share Posted November 30, 2014 85% of my winter wx events are cartoppers or cold rain so I'll go wit that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Strong HP = strong CAD in this situation. Hoping the precip trends further north earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 I like these types of events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.