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December obs/disco/short range


Ian

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I think it's pretty unlikely that we see much in the way of winter weather with this.  It seems the cold is really struggling to make much southward progress, and now the GFS, both versions seem quite a bit warmer to me than they did at 0z.

 

I think a damp, raw, chilly day is the most likely outcome tomorrow.

Nailed it.  :P

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IAD morning sounding:

 

Current filename: /home/data/upa/2014120212.upa.cvt

Date: 1200Z 2 DEC 14
Searching for KIAD...
Searching the city database file for: KIAD ...
Date:1200Z 2 DEC 14
Station: KIAD
WMO ident: 72403
Latitude: 38.95
Longitude: -77.45
Elevation: 98.00
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W
mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SFC 1024 98 1.8 -0.0 88 1.8 1.1 20 5 273.1 273.7 273.0 283.2 3.73
1 1021 120 1.6 -0.8 84 2.4 0.6 22 7 273.1 273.7 272.7 282.7 3.53
2 1019 135 1.8 -1.0 82 2.8 0.7 24 8 273.5 274.1 272.8 282.9 3.48
3 1000 279 0.4 -2.2 83 2.6 -0.6 40 18 273.5 274.1 272.5 282.4 3.25
4 985 400 -0.9 -3.8 81 2.9 -2.0 51 19 273.4 273.9 272.0 281.4 2.92
5 953 663 -2.1 -4.0 87 1.9 -2.8 80 21 274.8 275.3 272.9 283.0 2.98
6 951 680 -2.3 -5.4 79 3.1 -3.4 81 21 274.8 275.2 272.4 282.2 2.68
7 939 781 -2.7 -5.6 80 2.9 -3.7 90 23 275.4 275.8 272.8 282.8 2.68
8 931 849 -1.5 -7.5 64 6.0 -3.6 96 24 277.3 277.7 273.3 283.8 2.33
9 929 866 -2.7 -8.7 63 6.0 -4.7 97 24 276.2 276.6 272.4 282.2 2.13
10 925 900 -1.9 -7.9 63 6.0 -4.0 100 25 277.4 277.8 273.3 283.8 2.28
11 917 969 -2.3 -9.3 59 7.0 -4.6 101 23 277.6 278.0 273.2 283.5 2.06
12 909 1039 -2.9 -7.9 68 5.0 -4.6 102 20 277.7 278.1 273.6 284.3 2.32
13 899 1127 -3.3 -7.9 70 4.6 -4.8 103 17 278.2 278.6 273.9 284.8 2.34
14 897 1144 -2.9 -5.3 83 2.4 -3.8 104 16 278.8 279.3 275.0 286.8 2.87
15 888 1224 -3.1 -4.7 89 1.6 -3.7 107 13 279.4 279.9 275.6 287.9 3.03
16 880 1296 -1.9 -2.5 96 0.6 -2.1 126 11 281.4 282.0 277.4 291.5 3.61
17 876 1333 -3.7 -4.5 94 0.8 -4.0 135 10 279.8 280.4 275.9 288.6 3.12
18 871 1378 0.6 0.1 96 0.5 0.4 147 9 284.8 285.5 280.1 297.3 4.42
19 864 1443 1.8 1.3 96 0.5 1.5 164 8 286.7 287.5 281.5 300.5 4.86
20 858 1499 -0.5 -0.5 100 0.0 -0.5 179 7 284.9 285.6 280.0 297.0 4.30
21 850 1575 3.0 2.7 98 0.3 2.8 220 8 289.3 290.3 283.4 304.9 5.47
22 834 1729 4.0 3.8 99 0.2 3.9 235 14 291.9 293.0 285.1 309.3 6.03
23 831 1759 4.0 3.9 99 0.1 3.9 238 15 292.2 293.3 285.2 309.8 6.10
24 830 1769 2.6 2.6 100 0.0 2.6 239 16 290.8 291.8 284.1 306.8 5.56
25 801 2057 2.4 2.4 100 0.0 2.4 245 19 293.6 294.6 285.4 310.1 5.68
26 766 2417 0.2 0.2 100 0.0 0.2 245 21 295.0 295.9 285.2 309.9 5.07
27 765 2427 0.0 0.0 100 0.0 0.0 245 21 294.9 295.8 285.1 309.6 5.00
28 743 2661 -0.5 -0.5 100 0.0 -0.5 238 24 296.8 297.7 285.9 311.5 4.97
29 740 2694 -0.5 -0.5 100 0.0 -0.5 237 24 297.2 298.1 286.0 311.9 4.99
30 700 3137 -2.5 -2.6 99 0.1 -2.6 250 32 299.7 300.5 286.5 313.3 4.51
31 681 3355 -3.5 -3.6 99 0.1 -3.6 256 29 301.0 301.8 286.7 314.0 4.30
32 680 3367 -3.7 -3.8 99 0.1 -3.7 256 29 300.9 301.6 286.6 313.7 4.25
33 557 4916 -12.7 -13.2 96 0.5 -12.9 261 33 307.9 308.4 287.3 315.8 2.48
34 543 5110 -14.1 -14.7 95 0.6 -14.3 260 35 308.5 308.9 287.3 315.7 2.25
35 541 5138 -14.3 -15.0 94 0.7 -14.5 260 35 308.6 309.0 287.3 315.6 2.20
36 532 5265 -15.9 -17.1 90 1.2 -16.3 260 36 308.1 308.5 286.8 314.2 1.88
37 529 5308 -16.7 -19.2 81 2.5 -17.4 260 36 307.7 308.0 286.3 312.8 1.58
38 528 5322 -16.7 -19.3 80 2.6 -17.4 260 36 307.8 308.1 286.4 312.9 1.57
39 512 5553 -17.5 -17.9 97 0.4 -17.6 257 38 309.6 309.9 287.3 315.5 1.83
40 505 5656 -18.7 -19.5 93 0.8 -18.9 256 38 309.4 309.7 286.9 314.6 1.62

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