DDweatherman Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 On 11/29/2014 at 5:36 PM, CoastalWx said: GFS would be a complete disaster for Tuesday PM commute. Maybe the euro will catch on today. It does start most as snow, but then theres some mixed bag of disruption. Interested to see the Euro depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 I've seen sleet enough already. I would appreciate snow accumulation that isn't completely transparent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 29, 2014 Author Share Posted November 29, 2014 On 11/29/2014 at 5:36 PM, CoastalWx said: GFS would be a complete disaster for Tuesday PM commute. Maybe the euro will catch on today. that made me yesterday's 12z Euro was more GFSey though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 12z UKIE is interesting... precip is continuous for our area from Monday night into Tuesday night... at least 10mm and counting... 1041 H sitting in Quebec all day Tuesday supplying that CAD... UKIE stops at 72 wrt precip, but there is more to come off to the W and SW based off the QPF maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Should not be a big deal. GFS has been colder by several degrees Tuesday Morning through Tuesday Afternoon for about a day now. No other model currently has temps reaching freezing Tuesday Morning. I would bank on drizzle Tuesday, but can still change. 12z UKMET at 72hrs has 2m temps +1 to +2 and 850s around +1. Verbatim would be a cold light rain Tuesday Morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 On 11/29/2014 at 5:40 PM, Ian said: that made me yesterday's 12z Euro was more GFSey though. I know it's dry...but doesn't mean it has to be correct....lol. We'll find out soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 On 11/29/2014 at 5:41 PM, NinjaWarrior2 said: Should not be a big deal. GFS has been colder by several degrees Tuesday Morning through Tuesday Afternoon for about a day now. No other model currently has temps reaching freezing Tuesday Morning. I would bank on drizzle Tuesday, but can still change. Well that's it then. The word is given. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 29, 2014 Author Share Posted November 29, 2014 On 11/29/2014 at 5:41 PM, NinjaWarrior2 said: Should not be a big deal. GFS has been colder by several degrees Tuesday Morning through Tuesday Afternoon for about a day now. No other model currently has temps reaching freezing Tuesday Morning. I would bank on drizzle Tuesday, but can still change. Euro does NW of 95. Plus it has really low dew points. The main diff in sfc temps between it and the GFS is precip and in situ CAD. One thing we did really well with last winter was quick bleeding cold in these types of situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 On 11/29/2014 at 5:42 PM, CoastalWx said: Well that's it then. The word is given. Did they banish you from the NE forum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Scott, I am assuming that the precip that the UKIE shows for our area would be of the frozen variety? UKIE looks to have like a 24 hr period of frozen precip (sleet/snow/ice) thanks to the 1040+ H in Quebec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 On 11/29/2014 at 5:47 PM, yoda said: Scott, I am assuming that the precip that the UKIE shows for our area would be of the frozen variety? UKIE looks to have like a 24 hr period of frozen precip (sleet/snow/ice) thanks to the 1040+ H in Quebec Probably. This would be wetbulb city if it happens and the GFS was plenty cold so I assume Ukie is too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 On 11/29/2014 at 5:46 PM, Warrior Bigfoot said: Did they banish you from the NE forum? No, but already gave a heads up to clients so I'm pulling for it because it could be a high impact deal. I don't buy the dry euro..but hopefully not eating those words. Even a tiny bit of ice is huge there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 I was just kidding. Always appreciate Met analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Euro still south mostly with precip and too warm to worry about much frozen. Still a cad look for a time and wouldn't take much of a n shift to make it mixy around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 On 11/29/2014 at 6:16 PM, Bob Chill said: Euro still south mostly with precip. Any appreciable move north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 On 11/29/2014 at 6:16 PM, Bob Chill said: Euro still south mostly with precip and too warm to worry about much frozen. Still a cad look for a time and wouldn't take much of a n shift to make it mixy around here. Doesn't the Euro tend to be too warm in CAD situations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Euro has a light ZR and FZDZ look. More moist than 00z. It doesn't take much N and W of I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 SREFS made a decent jump north with precip on Tues. I don't think most here give them too much weight at this range though. Could signal a trend though...I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 On 11/29/2014 at 7:57 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: SREFS made a decent jump north with precip on Tues. I don't think most here give them too much weight at this range though. Could signal a trend though...I suppose. I just saw them. Surface temps are no where as cold as GFS. It has the 32 degree line dropping down to BWI for one frame (12z Tuesday) but then jumps it back north lickity split. Same thing with 850 line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 On 11/29/2014 at 8:01 PM, mitchnick said: I just saw them. Surface temps are no where as cold as GFS. It has the 32 degree line dropping down to BWI for one frame (12z Tuesday) but then jumps it back north lickity split. Same thing with 850 line.With a high that big to our ne, I think the cold will be here.However, the members causing it to be wetter are probably also causing it to be warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 On 11/29/2014 at 8:06 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: With a high that big to our ne, I think the cold will be here. you're probably good, but us lowlife lowland dwellers will probably be a degree or 2 too warm based on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 On 11/29/2014 at 8:06 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: With a high that big to our ne, I think the cold will be here. However, the members causing it to be wetter are probably also causing it to be warmer. One would think..and it certainly does have a CAD look which at least for places NW would tend to hold in low level cold for a time(should precip get there). On the other hand that High is truckin along so shouldn't be a prolonged frozen/freezing event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 18z GFS is interesting in early afternon Tuesday... entire column below freezing and Raleigh snow maps suggest an inch or two of snow if we are lucky... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 TTUesday morning does look worth monitoring though precip amounts are pretty light but initially there certainly is a CAD look before the high moves off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 If correct, the southern suburbs of DCA down to EZF could have an interesting morning frozen precip-wise based off tonights 00z GFS run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 On 11/30/2014 at 3:49 AM, yoda said: If correct, the southern suburbs of DCA down to EZF could have an interesting morning frozen precip-wise based off tonights 00z GFS run Yeah, at this point it looks wintry Tues morning. The wild card is precip amounts. Pretty far out in time still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 jeez....the Para is a 3-6" snowstorm tuesday morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 On 11/30/2014 at 4:00 AM, zwyts said: jeez....the Para is a 3-6" snowstorm tuesday morning... These are the sneaky set ups that can surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Parallel GFS at 10 am Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 On 11/30/2014 at 4:00 AM, zwyts said: jeez....the Para is a 3-6" snowstorm tuesday morning... Yeah... I had to do a double take to make sure of what I was seeing on the para for Tues morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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