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2014/15 Winter Banter and General Observations


Baroclinic Zone

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talk is cheap,you are deeply searching for that one post,tweet,blog entry, tv wx man who gives you a glimmer of hope of seeing decent frozen this weekend. The defense mechanism you have newly created is pretty cool though. No lose situation, are you the new PF of the south?

 

:lol:  That's the way... expect nothing, get everything.  No lose situation and always be pleasantly surprised.

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:lol: That's the way... expect nothing, get everything. No lose situation and always be pleasantly surprised.

pretty much my attitude, I would imagine Ray and Kevin never got the He Man castle they desired at Christmas so now as Adults they think they have to tamper their positivity as Christmas approaches
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Yeah, with the general consistently steady state of shortwaves moving across the country so far this winter, if we got a little blocking help to slow the flow down and keep anything from tracking into the Great Lakes or PA/NY area, definitely could get quite snowy.

 

I look at winter weather sort of like sports...you can get worked up over it a bit, if your favorite sports team blows a big game or is sucking part way through the season.  Right now we are probably in like June of the baseball season, and the Red Sox have been under-performing...but aren't anywhere close to being out of it.  Just sort of playing "blah" baseball through May.  Need just a trade or two to complete the package, and then they can make a big second half run to October.  That's sort of where this winter is at...needs some slight switches in the atmosphere (notably blocking) to really turn it on, but things are heading in the right direction with the cold.  Sort of like if the pitching starts to heat up in June, but the big bats are still struggling for power...just need one more piece of the puzzle to really go on a run.

 

This winter may also be a good lesson on why seasonal forecasting is humbling. I said a couple of weeks ago how mother nature sometimes doesn't give a sh*t about indices. It's a good lesson and slice of humble pie if the SAI falls flat on its face. I think sometimes we get a little arrogant as humans when it comes to forecasting. There is a lot riding on it, so there is always competition going on, but sometimes we need to go back to the drawing board about certain things. I like it...it's a breathe a fresh air to the science and helps us learn more to be better at what we do. We tend to underestimate chaos. 

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It's definitely a big part of it for now. We'll see how it goes as we get deeper into winter. There is a lot of time left so some of these premature obituaries that are being written may be all for nothing. Trust me, I have my concerns as well...but I've also seen it turn around quickly. It doesn't take much to do this.

I don't think you could have been more clearer .
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I'm hopeful but always cognizant of the sands of time. We get to 1/10 and the pattern ahead is poor I think ratterhood is where we live. I agree we have a shot at deep winter conds over the next week to 14 days. If that fails, I believe it's telling of what we're dealing with here.

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Well as folks can see he's not going to answer..so we'll assume he's all in on total snow and cold from now thru March in SNE .Hope he's right on that forecast

 

It's nice to see folks express some concerns, but not melting at the same time. That's kind of refreshing..Haven't really had anyone collapse or melt at all over the last few days, while 99% of the posters acknowleding that they do have some trepidations of hammer time winter for the next 2-3 months...also knowing that possibility does exist

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Well as folks can see he's not going to answer..so we'll assume he's all in on total snow and cold from now thru March in SNE .Hope he's right on that forecast

 

It's nice to see folks express some concerns, but not melting at the same time. That's kind of refreshing..Haven't really had anyone collapse or melt at all over the last few days, while 99% of the posters acknowleding that they do have some trepidations of hammer time winter for the next 2-3 months...also knowing that possibility does exist

Didn't you just melt yesterday?  I'm kinda excited.   I'm thinking it is going to snow here 4-8 this weekend....but I also thought the Eagles would win the NFC East. Not so good on the predictions here. 

So now if I say the 18z GFS was pretty awesome, will people disrobe and run naked? Lets see if I can do this.

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