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2014/15 Winter Banter and General Observations


Baroclinic Zone

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It's amazing the power of what one post can do. I literally have the ability to end lives.

It's the natural reaction though...if someone posts good news, there's a positive response with a bunch of follow up posts cheerleading cold and snow. You should expect that a post that's not great news to come with some follow up posts that are therefor on the other end of the spectrum.

These days we seem to overreact to "melting", I think it's ok to show some hesitation if things don't look great. Melting down used to be saved for like the SnowNH type drunk rants...now anyone has a melt down if they are unsatisfied at all, lol.

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It's the natural reaction though...if someone posts good news, there's a positive response with a bunch of follow up posts cheerleading cold and snow. You should expect that a post that's not great news to come with some follow up posts that are therefor on the other end of the spectrum.

 

I gave some caveats in that post about the accuracy, but I guess it doesn't matter. :(   

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The real question is, at what point would you get worried Ginxy? Mid-March? Lol.

He wouldn't. His eternal optimism would eventually reach a point at which it would begin to blend into a slew of pithy posts regarding how grateful he is that Sunday River has decided to make doggie trails. ....before concluding with a picture of him, and his aggregation of hounds on a sleigh with the caption "happy, happy".
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I gave some caveats in that post about the accuracy, but I guess it doesn't matter. :(

I still think it stems back to the fall anticipation of a weak El Niño and the overall tone all fall was "epic winter". Sometimes those seasonal forecasts and positive correlations and such can set some high expectations.

So far I think most can blame the NAO...if that was even weakly negative, the rainers may have been different and could be well on the way to a huge winter.

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I still think it stems back to the fall anticipation of a weak El Niño and the overall tone all fall was "epic winter". Sometimes those seasonal forecasts and positive correlations and such can set some high expectations.

So far I think most can blame the NAO...if that was even weakly negative, the rainers may have been different and could be well on the way to a huge winter.

 

It's definitely a big part of it for now. We'll see how it goes as we get deeper into winter. There is a lot of time left so some of these premature obituaries that are being written may be all for nothing. Trust me, I have my concerns as well...but I've also seen it turn around quickly. It doesn't take much to do this.

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Steve, you are at the opposite end of the spectrum. It could be April 28th, with a seasonal total of 6", and you would post some obscure chart and act as though it cements the season's positioning among the top winters of yore.

guess you missed my eight week forecasts the last two years.
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Its ok to admit you have worries and concern. You aren't going to always climb the tallest ladder and win Chutes and Ladders

talk is cheap,you are deeply searching for that one post,tweet,blog entry, tv wx man who gives you a glimmer of hope of seeing decent frozen this weekend. The defense mechanism you have newly created is pretty cool though. No lose situation, are you the new PF of the south?
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It's amazing how you fail to acknowledge anything other then cold/snow...the euro ens that you have been riding 3 days ago now cancel january the last few runs

you are not one of us, go back to your hell hole, Will schooled you yesterday worse than anyone in recent memory. Oh and the same Ens that Scooter posted a 282 versus 168 change. See ya troll ,enjoy the bridge
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It's definitely a big part of it for now. We'll see how it goes as we get deeper into winter. There is a lot of time left so some of these premature obituaries that are being written may be all for nothing. Trust me, I have my concerns as well...but I've also seen it turn around quickly. It doesn't take much to do this.

 

Yeah, with the general consistently steady state of shortwaves moving across the country so far this winter, if we got a little blocking help to slow the flow down and keep anything from tracking into the Great Lakes or PA/NY area, definitely could get quite snowy.

 

I look at winter weather sort of like sports...you can get worked up over it a bit, if your favorite sports team blows a big game or is sucking part way through the season.  Right now we are probably in like June of the baseball season, and the Red Sox have been under-performing...but aren't anywhere close to being out of it.  Just sort of playing "blah" baseball through May.  Need just a trade or two to complete the package, and then they can make a big second half run to October.  That's sort of where this winter is at...needs some slight switches in the atmosphere (notably blocking) to really turn it on, but things are heading in the right direction with the cold.  Sort of like if the pitching starts to heat up in June, but the big bats are still struggling for power...just need one more piece of the puzzle to really go on a run.

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