CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 it was wrong When people speak out because they are frustrated and don't look at a model, it's very easy to pick out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Why then are posts like 07-08 and 93-94 allowed to be compared to this set-up? We have a Se ridge on roids and a storm cutting west...years like 07-08 are rare and not the rule... Dude, did you forget that there were cutters in '07-'08 and '93-'94? Might want to go look at patterns again and actually study what storms occurred. Are you conveniently forgetting the 958 times I said in here that January 1994 had cutters? I had to correct multiple people on that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Dude, did you forget that there were cutters in '07-'08 and '93-'94? Might want to go look at patterns again and actually study what storms occurred. Are you conveniently forgetting the 958 times I said in here that January 1994 had cutters? I had to correct multiple people on that point. And last year..lol. How convenient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I saw double digit snowfalls get wiped out in a day last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I saw double digit snowfalls get wiped out in a day last year.yep, strange behavior from peeps who say they are learned hobbyists Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I saw double digit snowfalls get wiped out in a day last year. on the positive side, nothing to watch get wiped out this year, we just get coastals with no cold air and then cutters now that we have cold air. Reminds me of the 80's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 How can you lose or gain something over a week out?Hope Your're right and its a hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 on the positive side, nothing to watch get wiped out this year, we just get coastals with no cold air and then cutters now that we have cold air. Reminds me of the 80's. I think we had one coastal and that was December 9th. Lets see what Jan does. Like I said, it's not a great pattern..but sometimes things come in bunches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Hope Your're right and its a hit That wasn't what I said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 what do folks think about the -QBO having a negative effect this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Dude, did you forget that there were cutters in '07-'08 and '93-'94? Might want to go look at patterns again and actually study what storms occurred. Are you conveniently forgetting the 958 times I said in here that January 1994 had cutters? I had to correct multiple people on that point. I'm not saying no cutters happened in 07-08.....that was the primary storm track. I was referring to the fact that every time a cutter shows up some poster refers to 07-08 and how they all redeveloped south of long island to lock in the cold in Sne..THat was a very rare year and not the rule. It's like saying we have the pv in Canada we should expect January 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Again again ... and again, the NAO is not the problem. It might help, but for those that are weighting in the factor heavily ... go back to wave-length/Rossby number science and then observe that PNAP pattern that's been in place for ...like 10 days now. The flow between 130W by 35(ish) N is out of phase with the typical western ridge, eastern trough, and that is purely a function of the current and prior -PNA persisting and relaying that wave spacing into the US. If the western ridge moves east, or the the SE retrogrades like hugely ... there's just no L/W axis in the OV/TV region, save for about the 40th parallel... A -NAO might help by suppressing the flow, but then the gradient might be that much more steep and deadly to S/W, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 what do folks think about the -QBO having a negative effect this year? I'm not even sure people know what they are saying when it comes to that. We know a -QBO is favorable, but what the hell delineates favorable values vs non-favorable? I think it's an interesting point, but I am not so sure it matters too much. People are quick to hop on an index that seems to make sense to them. Sometimes it's just weather being weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 jan 94 had a few cutters but it also had... snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 yep, strange behavior from peeps who say they are learned hobbyistsYou're killing it in here today, props to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 jan 94 had a few cutters but it also had... snow It had a lot of snow too..like 3 feet in BOS/ORH. But January hasn't even started yet, so it's kind of early for some to be proclaiming we don't get much snow. I wouldn't predict 3 feet, but it doesn't take too much to break right in that pattern to get 20-25" here in a 2-3 week stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 jan 94 had a few cutters but it also had... snow Exactly. We can talk about those winters having their share of rain, but we need to get an actual snow event to compare it to this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Dude, did you forget that there were cutters in '07-'08 and '93-'94? Might want to go look at patterns again and actually study what storms occurred. Are you conveniently forgetting the 958 times I said in here that January 1994 had cutters? I had to correct multiple people on that point. There's a reason why Ottawa had a record or near record winter in 07-08...and it wasn't because of a suppressed storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 It had a lot of snow too..like 3 feet in BOS/ORH. But January hasn't even started yet, so it's kind of early for some to be proclaiming we don't get much snow. I wouldn't predict 3 feet, but it doesn't take too much to break right in that pattern to get 20-25" here in a 2-3 week stretch. Yeah a lot of Miss Cleo type people I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 LOL--classic. I was about to post that myself. I love that movie. I had thought earlier that I might wind up with a 4-6" deal out of this system. I'm tempering expectations to perhaps as much as 3". Whatever remains after the warm push is going to crust over pretty good with the cold. BOX going with 44* in my p/c. Yikes. 20.1/2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 What a bunch of babies in here arguing sh't based on nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 There's a reason why Ottawa had a record or near record winter in 07-08...and it wasn't because of a suppressed storm track. There's a reason we aren't comparing this to 2009-2010 or 2010-2011... Instead, SE ridge with a +NAO but good cross polar cold into Canada (like '07-'08 or '93-'94)...thats a pattern that can produce but not without risk of cutters or a shotwave getting put through a meatgrinder. I'm not sure why that is hard for some people to grasp. I get that it sucks when it isn't snowing on your front lawn, but aside from that unfortunate fact, at least don't start spouting unscientific rhetoric. Hey, maybe we get unlucky and the wrist-slitters are going to be correct. But there's no reason to predict snowless weeks based on the current pattern. At least not in New England...I might feel differently 150-200 miles south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 yep, strange behavior from peeps who say they are learned hobbyists Agreed,,though there comes a point in time when you have to express doubt, concern and set aside the supreme confidence in super winter coming in wearing a cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Agreed,,though there comes a point in time when you have to express doubt, concern and set aside the supreme confidence in super winter coming in wearing a cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Persistence can be a b**ch, both good and bad. It's bad when you just assume 5" of snow the rest of the winter because December sucked, it's bad when you assume snow through April because the past 6 weeks, rocked. I think we are all well aware of the bad, but it doesn't mean you should be consumed by it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 There's a reason we aren't comparing this to 2009-2010 or 2010-2011... Instead, SE ridge with a +NAO but good cross polar cold into Canada (like '07-'08 or '93-'94)...thats a pattern that can produce but not without risk of cutters or a shotwave getting put through a meatgrinder. I'm not sure why that is hard for some people to grasp. I get that it sucks when it isn't snowing on your front lawn, but aside from that unfortunate fact, at least don't start spouting unscientific rhetoric. Hey, maybe we get unlucky and the wrist-slitters are going to be correct. But there's no reason to predict snowless weeks based on the current pattern. At least not in New England...I might feel differently 150-200 miles south. So comparing every cutter to 07-08 and how it redeveloped south of long island is a realistic opion? It just so happened to be Boston's snowiest December's on record...that's like me seeing blocking and a neg nao so I should expect 09-10...to me that's a ridiculous idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 So comparing every cutter to 07-08 and how it redeveloped south of long island is a realistic opion? It just so happened to be Boston's snowiest December's on record...that's like me seeing blocking and a neg nao so I should expect 09-10...to me that's a ridiculous idea Who is calling for Boston's snowiest month on record? What's ridiculous is that is what you took away from the comparison. The whole point was that we can do ok in these patterns...yet you failed to acknowledge the 800 times we said that things may not break our way either. "High stakes" pattern as Scott has said a bunch of times. High stakes means high risk, high reward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 There's a reason why Ottawa had a record or near record winter in 07-08...and it wasn't because of a suppressed storm track. I was not denying that those years didn't have cutters...I was referring to the fact every time they see one they refer back to a year that worked out perfectly for them...to me that's poor science to cherry pick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I had a mini melt last night. I won't judge others, most if not all here are emotionally attached to the weather, especially winter. Pattern has blown, outlook isn't good for the next storm. Still a long ways to go though. It doesn't take much, especially on the coastal plain. I do agree, if we dont develop a -NAO in the next 4-6 weeks max, most will not remember this winter as a good one. Tough to spin it any other way. On a positive note. Larger bodies of water are starting to ice over here. Maybe some pond hockey soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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