powderfreak Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 lol, thanks never knew that No problem. Happy to help anytime buddy if you have any questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Well when it comes, it can come quick. Just because the first two weeks of Jan don't deliver 20", doesn't mean winter will suck.I'm hoping the clipper can drop a few, but hey...we will see. Sometimes you just get that "gut" feeling of when things will be good and when things won't be. Sometimes it's based on persistence, sometimes just a feeling, sometimes on science...This is really, really starting to feel like one of those" every time something can go wrong it does" kinds of winters. I know Will and Jerry both said if by Jan 10 if we haven't seen decent snow..then it would be time to re-evaluate..Well with the weekend system now in the bowels of the portapot mixed in with dung and TP..and the clipper looking worse each run..we are getting painfully close to that magic date. Let's hope something happens soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Well when it comes, it can come quick. Just because the first two weeks of Jan don't deliver 20", doesn't mean winter will suck.I'm hoping the clipper can drop a few, but hey...we will see.lol at the bridge jumpers today,awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Sometimes you just get that "gut" feeling of when things will be good and when things won't be. Sometimes it's based on persistence, sometimes just a feeling, sometimes on science...This is really, really starting to feel like one of hose" every time something can go wrong it does" kinds of winters. I know Will and Jerry both said if by Jan 10 if we haven't seen decent snow..then it would be time to re-evaluate..Well with the weekend system now in the bowels of the portapot mixed in with dung and TP..and the clipper looking worse each run..we are getting painfully close to that magic date. Let's hope something happens soon.it's a swan dive reverse double Luigi with a twist, 8.5/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I'll say one thing, if we don't get the NAO to go negative, then this season will not be very good. I know we got away with it last year, but it's tougher sailing in an El Nino without a -NAO. Hopefully I'm wrong if we don't get a -NAO, but I feel like we will need it eventually. But that monster vortex over Greenland seems indestructible. But they can get broken with little warnign as happened in 2005. In the meantime, we are going to have this pseudo Nina pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 lol at the bridge jumpers today,awesome At least it is cold now, feels like winter even though it doesn't look like it. Not a single snow bank to be seen anywhere nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 He's been one of the most level headed about this pattern going forward, haha. But there's definitely some CT vs. MA undercurrent going on in here today . Well as everyone notices..the Mass guys always stick up for each other. They always come to each other's rescue. i challenge you to think of a time when if it came to a discussion or debate of Mass vs CT poster to come up with a time when the Mass guys came to the defense of the CT guy. Ryan goes both ways..but even he will come to CT folks defense sometimes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I'll say one thing, if we don't get the NAO to go negative, then this season will not be very good. I know we got away with it last year, but it's tougher sailing in an El Nino without a -NAO. Hopefully I'm wrong if we don't get a -NAO, but I feel like we will need it eventually. But that monster vortex over Greenland seems indestructible. But they can get broken with little warnign as happened in 2005. In the meantime, we are going to have this pseudo Nina pattern. Nino is dead bro, Nino schemo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Sometimes you just get that "gut" feeling of when things will be good and when things won't be. Sometimes it's based on persistence, sometimes just a feeling, sometimes on science...This is really, really starting to feel like one of those" every time something can go wrong it does" kinds of winters. I know Will and Jerry both said if by Jan 10 if we haven't seen decent snow..then it would be time to re-evaluate..Well with the weekend system now in the bowels of the portapot mixed in with dung and TP..and the clipper looking worse each run..we are getting painfully close to that magic date. Let's hope something happens soon. Yea but winter of 12/13 had a super slow start and that turned out ok. I just don't think Jan 10 is some concrete re evaluate date....my cutoff is actually presidents day, but I'm more patient then most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 No problem. Happy to help anytime buddy if you have any questions.lol a Tippy war and peace response would be better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Is January 10 sort of like the pike? Before January 10 we can still hope for snow and after January 10 it is just a long brown period until April? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Yea but winter of 12/13 had a super slow start and that turned out ok. I just don't think Jan 10 is some concrete re evaluate date....my cutoff is actually presidents day, but I'm more patient then most. I've been pretty level headed thru out this whole ordeal..but sometimes..you just have to admit defeat and that maybe it's just not your winter. Again..that's just gut..I'm not melting, or throwing in the towel..but my confidence is very shaken. If you threw me 3 fastballs down the middle I might not hit them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 At least it is cold now, feels like winter even though it doesn't look like it. Not a single snow bank to be seen anywhere nearby. Nothing better than useless cold around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I just hope those that forecast 70-90 inches for their BY's aren't still expecting that lol. It's January and most folks are in single digits January 30", Feb 30", March 15"...BOOM. It seems more insumountable when things haven't been going well, and folks take it for granted when we are in a good stretch...expecting it forever. I may melt down, but not this early.....I'll pick the time, if it gets to that point. 5 years ago, I'd have been a puddle by now....I'm like the PV this season, I bend, but haven't broken.....a few drips here and there, but no melt as of yet. One of us will melt/blink by February, me or the PV. Several more cutters and whiffs, I'll split, melt and be displaced out of the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Well as everyone notices..the Mass guys always stick up for each other. They always come to each other's rescue. i challenge you to think of a time when if it came to a discussion or debate of Mass vs CT poster to come up with a time when the Mass guys came to the defense of the CT guy. Ryan goes both ways..but even he will come to CT folks defense sometimes You do a lot of bitter-casting toward the MA folks...esp Ray's area and N of the pike in general. It's why you say stuff like "nobody gets anything up into S NH" or "the snow will melt all the way to dendrite, even ORH will have bare ground"...when the data doesn't really support it. It's ok to accept that sometimes they have snow when you don't. It's called climatology. You really need to ease off the absolutes when you post on a science forum and you'd probably get less flak...this storm should be a good lesson in that. The "no way this is a cutter" idea was nonesensical at the time given the pattern we had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 At least it is cold now, feels like winter even though it doesn't look like it. Not a single snow bank to be seen anywhere nearby.pretty sure it will snow in Jan Feb in SNE at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 You do a lot of bitter-casting toward the MA folks...esp Ray's area and N of the pike in general. It's why you say stuff like "nobody gets anything up into S NH" or "the snow will melt all the way to dendrite, even ORH will have bare ground"...when the data doesn't really support it. It's ok to accept that sometimes they have snow when you don't. It's called climatology. You really need to ease off the absolutes when you post on a science forum and you'd probably get less flak...this storm should be a good lesson in that. The "no way this is a cutter" idea was nonesensical at the time given the pattern we had. I clearly explained to you what i meant by that. I said warm cutter and you agreed. Now that's exactly what we are facing..so both of us were wrong on that idea. Weather results and outcomes are absolutes. In general this forum is very Mass centric..and you guys tend to only talk about that area. We all are more focused on where we live..so I get it..but let's not pretend that's not the case here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Sometimes you just get that "gut" feeling of when things will be good and when things won't be. Sometimes it's based on persistence, sometimes just a feeling, sometimes on science...This is really, really starting to feel like one of those" every time something can go wrong it does" kinds of winters. I know Will and Jerry both said if by Jan 10 if we haven't seen decent snow..then it would be time to re-evaluate..Well with the weekend system now in the bowels of the portapot mixed in with dung and TP..and the clipper looking worse each run..we are getting painfully close to that magic date. Let's hope something happens soon. I've had this regression feeling since the Fall, but on the other hand..other factors looked good. Trust me, I fully understand what you mean. If it sucks, it sucks and it's not a great pattern for sure. However, sometimes you get a quick 10-14 day period where it's like boom..boom..boom..and there it is. Maybe it's later this month or Feb..I don't know, but it can happen quickly. At the same time, looking at everything half empty out of frustration and saying "well this will cut west or squash underneath us because the winter sucked" isn't smart to do either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 Bring on the cutters now. Not bad of a call if I do say so myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 the Pike runs through the Berks to Boston, North of the Pike is a silly delineation, always has been The mid level warming often meets a great deal of resistance just south of the pike...no it isn't. The mid levels don't give a flying one about elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Nino is dead bro, Nino schemo What do you mean? We're in solid weak territory right now...and besides, it's not what it happening right now that matters for SSTA, it's more what it was a month or 2 months ago. OBviously at the moment, we aren't acting like a Nino in North America, but it's still there and has been there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I clearly explained to you what i meant by that. I said warm cutter and you agreed. Now that's exactly what we are facing..so both of us were wrong on that idea. Weather results and outcomes are absolutes. In general this forum is very Mass centric..and you guys tend to only talk about that area. We all are more focused on where we live..so I get it..but let's not pretend that's not the case here. Wait a minute, I've spent hours talking weather everywhere..including you even if I was down the drain. I would argue Will has been fair to CT as well, but Ryan usually answers a lot of those questions. There are a lot of people in MA on this forum. So, you would expect that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Nothing better than useless cold around these parts. Agree. Feeling like winter because it's cold is not a consolation prize. It's like going on a job interview, being told you did very well.... but someone else got the job. Thanks for the pat on the back. I needed that to make me feel better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I just hope those that forecast 70-90 inches for their BY's aren't still expecting that lol. It's January and most folks are in single digits I absolutely am. Remember this post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 Agree. Feeling like winter because it's cold is not a consolation prize. It's like going on a job interview, being told you did very well.... but someone else got the job. Thanks for the pat on the back. I needed that to make me feel better. Anytime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I absolutely am. Remember this post. Good luck dude. Hope you're correct. I'm shaken today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I clearly explained to you what i meant by that. I said warm cutter and you agreed. Now that's exactly what we are facing..so both of us were wrong on that idea. Weather results and outcomes are absolutes. In general this forum is very Mass centric..and you guys tend to only talk about that area. We all are more focused on where we live..so I get it..but let's not pretend that's not the case here. Lol...I never discounted the idea of a warm cutter (in fact, I remember specifically asking you why you thought we wouldn't get 55F dews if we got a track well west)...you'll have to link that one where I agreed it wouldn't happen. I said it's unlikely we'd get a huge torching cutter...and that's still questionable given the amount of CAD that may be around...we may eventually spike up to 45-50 but it might only be a few hours. The take home point is don't speak in absolutes when there is no support for those statements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Good luck dude. Hope you're correct. I'm shaken today How? Because you may get 1" instead of 2.5"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Wait a minute, I've spent hours talking weather everywhere..including you even if I was down the drain. I would argue Will has been fair to CT as well, but Ryan usually answers a lot of those questions. There are a lot of people in MA on this forum. So, you would expect that. Ryan's not on here that often anymore..and when he is..he's usually doing tv hits..I agree you out of anyone focuses on all areas..but when push comes to shove..you take the Mass pike all the way to weenieville. And again..I get it. It's just an observation..because we all do it to some degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I'll say one thing, if we don't get the NAO to go negative, then this season will not be very good. I know we got away with it last year, but it's tougher sailing in an El Nino without a -NAO. Hopefully I'm wrong if we don't get a -NAO, but I feel like we will need it eventually. But that monster vortex over Greenland seems indestructible. But they can get broken with little warnign as happened in 2005. In the meantime, we are going to have this pseudo Nina pattern. Nothing scientific, but I doubt we see much of a -NAO this year...we've been locked into positive regime for a while and the fact that it has not even moved towards a flip is a problem. Seems that these turd winters lock in early and don't change. I'm think we torch 2nd half of January unless the EPO holds on.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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