Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I really am feeling a solid winter event for all of us Sat nite. Lay down a few inches to the water and lock it in with ice inland as we stay below 32. Really feeling good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I really am feeling a solid winter event for all of us Sat nite. Lay down a few inches to the water and lock it in with ice inland as we stay below 32. Really feeling good I'll start feelin pretty good if we can get the euro to look more like the GFS with the high pressure. Right now the euro is a shade east for my liking with the high. It's a nice airmass but I want to see the high lift more northerly at the onset. But there's still a lot of time for this to change. Next 2-3 runs will be critical as it will be inside 100 hours by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I like the clipper look right now as modeled. There's some good stuff going for it provided it stays on guidance. But as Scott already said, it could easily morph into garbage given it is 8 days out. Yeah the look is good. It won't take much QPF to lay down snow either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I really am feeling a solid winter event for all of us Sat nite. Lay down a few inches to the water and lock it in with ice inland as we stay below 32. Really feeling good I'm not feeling as good down here but usually I'm good for an inch or two before the changing begins...and I'll take it. Just hope 0z euro comes in colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Why would you post something like that? That leads to those posts from Ray who thinks he's in some kind of a special snow spot in this pattern and is going to jackpot lol We aren't going to go snowless. I will say a place like BDL will get 8 inches or more by Jan 15th Because Ray is absolutely and unquestionably in a better position than you in an SWFE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 I'm not feeling as good down here but usually I'm good for an inch or two before the changing begins...and I'll take it. Just hope 0z euro comes in colder.With the decent spread to the south on the Ens...and the trend colder and weaker on the primary on all models I feel decent about a decent event. Not all snow.. But maybe we can stay below 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Just bored and playing around with stuff at work, looks like the GEFS 11-15 day from 12/25/14 will verify better than the EC 11-15 day valid from 12/25/14. That is, if you believe the 6-10 forecasts are correct. It may not matter going forward, but the lower heights over the SW and SE ridge on the EC may have been a little too strong. We'll see how it looks in the 1-5 day period, in 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Lol @ punting on 3rd down. About 3rd and 8 for you. 3rd and 25 for us down here after a sack and penalty. At best we'll gain a few yards and kick a 60 yarder on 4th. Still maybe think an inch or two is on the table with amother shift colder. But nothing worth getting excited over "down here". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Scott what do you think would cause the northern stream shortwave to just go poof? GFS has kept it on consistently now even though it was out to sea in previous runs it still maintained the shortwave. My question is what will make the shortwave disappear, I can see timing issues being a problem, but actually disappearing? The EURO is worse than the GFS with northern stream disturbances. There is no relying on the phasing and timing of shortwaves in question, its just one shortwave with a +PNA pattern present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Scott what do you think would cause the northern stream shortwave to just go poof? GFS has kept it on consistently now even though it was out to sea in previous runs it still maintained the shortwave. My question is what will make the shortwave disappear, I can see timing issues being a problem, but actually disappearing? The EURO is worse than the GFS with northern stream disturbances. There is no relying on the phasing and timing of shortwaves in question, its just one shortwave with a +PNA pattern present. Well if it's just a very weak wave in zonal flow, it won't do much other than some snow showers. It's possible, although since it doesn't take much moisture in an arctic airmass to generate snow, you won't need a massive and buckling s/w to create snow. There is also the risk it redevelops overhead and sort of gives a few flurries while steadier snow occurs north. Again, 7+ days out means you shouldn't lock the snowier solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 16F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Feels like 2 winters. We are stepping down to our second winter. We had 22 inches for our first winter, then March came for a week, and now we are in a rapid step down with our first big storm of the second winter coming this weekend. Then we perhaps go into deep winter quickly. It might last too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Earth shattering take.you disrespectful little turd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 you disrespectful little turd See me....if I'm any kind of turd I want to be big one to sh it all over everyone, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 See me....if I'm any kind of turd I want to be big one to sh it all over everyone, December was like that. It was the massive power dump that sprayed everywhere, and SNE was the bowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 December was like that. It was the massive power dump that sprayed everywhere, and SNE was the bowl.Puking at the same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Because Ray is absolutely and unquestionably in a better position than you in an SWFE.No one said he wasnt. But he was acting like feet were coming his way . Hopefully he's right. I root for him to get snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 No one said he wasnt. But he was acting like feet were coming his way . Hopefully he's right. I root for him to get snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Well it's true. There's noone more BY centric than him and he hates when others get snow and he doesn't, but I know how much he loves snow and how important it is to him to always get the most, so I hope his wishes for that come true. In a swfe winter with no big coastals he should hopefully do well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Well it's true. There's noone more BY centric than him and he hates when others get snow and he doesn't, but I know how much he loves snow and how important it is to him to always get the most, so I hope his wishes for that come true. In a swfe winter with no big coastals he should hopefully do well You guys and your weenie snow competition are quite funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Because Ray is absolutely and unquestionably in a better position than you in an SWFE.Yeah, I think it's more he logs on here to get amped for snow like most of us and loves to see a bunch of posts about how south of the Pike isn't the promised land. Rather hear about what he could get vs how much he could not get. Glass half full kinda guy...or more like the glass is always over-flowing full even if it looks dire, haha.Edit mods should just move this to the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 December was like that. It was the massive power dump that sprayed everywhere, and SNE was the bowl. I'm out of the region, but man, this made me lol for real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 31, 2014 Author Share Posted December 31, 2014 Radiators unite! Down to 13F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 30-15 so far and dropping faster than Rays drawers when entering the shed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Well to give my numbers, as historical stats is my one pro area here, My calculations for my region of Northern RI state that to have a great winter we would have to have 25" by this weekend, and I'm still below 4". Now, seasons with Less than 4" heading into January And seasons with Less than an Inch of Snow in December like this one, all fall between 15"-35" for the Season Total. So pretty much, outside of a History making comeback in January through April that has Never been seen before (season to season speaking), this season is an unmitigated disaster. GFS still shows just rain storms or cold without precip. like this winter has been until the 15th. As ESPN says - Numbers, Never Lie. Though I still am going to believe Ray's Prediction of a HECS 2 Footer. Which I'm Always super happy with a winter that has 1 monster of B or 2005 or B of 2013 or B of 1996 style and historical value Regardless of what the rest had. It's ugly but most here are optimistic of an onslaught of snow starting soon. I've lubed my shovel and put the snow stakes in the ground. Wood is chopped, fires stoked, bring it on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 It's ugly but most here are optimistic of an onslaught of snow starting soon. I've lubed my shovel and put the snow stakes in the ground. Wood is chopped, fires stoked, bring it on! I wouldn't go that far and it depends on location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 We can hope for some colder trends for this weekend down here. IF they don't I'm going to just think positive that the upcoming cold will at least lower SSTs for any "marginal" events later in the season, esp if we can ever get a -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Wow, 15/7 at 8:15pm. Gonna' be a cold one. Should break my low for the season which stands at 11F. Hopefully get a day of pond skating in before the snow to mix moves in this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 Temp here has bumped back up to 17 after being 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2014 Share Posted December 31, 2014 17.8 with wind. We don't toss.. We won't toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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