2014/15 Winter Banter and General Observations

[weathafella]

GFS is a mirror image,same bias?

Naso much now.

[CoastalWx]

GFS is a mirror image,same bias?

Model srfc temps sometimes do weird things with snow. I honestly don't look at them for lows or something like that.

[Ginx snewx]

Model srfc temps sometimes do weird things with snow. I honestly don't look at them for lows or something like that.

oh I thought we were talking about 850, does the Euro have a 850 bias

[Ginx snewx]

Quick look at ESRL shows -10C line roughly through BTV for 1/5

You can plug any date into it for the '81-'10 climo

do local stations like BTV do balloon soundings, where does ESRL get the data to make those maps.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah I never thought this system had much of a shot in this area. I should have said pike south, that probably would be more accurate and closer to the truth.

I could really see CNE and NNE cashing in. I also could really see this area continue to struggle on the wrong side of some storms, and without any blocking, I dont think there is much to be excited about in the near future

CNE and NNE are a different story obviously

Yeah, I guess I'm not really sold on a classic gradient pattern, especially after mid month. It just depends on how the ridge axis near AK sets up and seems like it will move east at times, near and after mid month.

[CoastalWx]

oh I thought we were talking about 850, does the Euro have a 850 bias

I don't know specifically.

[forkyfork]

"no one" is two words

[ORH_wxman]

do local stations like BTV do balloon soundings, where does ESRL get the data to make those maps.

 

 

Interpolation...thats how models give us soundings for ORH or BOS. They don't do balloon launches there either. But with BUF, ALB, GYX and CWMW (NW of Montreal), we can get a very good idea of the values in between those stations...such as BTV.

[Ginx snewx]

"no one" is two words

no one cares

[moneypitmike]

come to the banter thread where we do

 

I think we should have separate threads for storm observations:  accumulations, rates, winds.  Who wants to read through pages of accumulations when you're really eager to see what a peak gust is?  

 

J/K.  I do think there will be a lot of posts in the wrong thread.  But whatever......

[Ginx snewx]

Interpolation...thats how models give us soundings for ORH or BOS. They don't do balloon launches there either. But with BUF, ALB, GYX and CWMW (NW of Montreal), we can get a very good idea of the values in between those stations...such as BTV.

yea thats what I figured

[tamarack]

Right now, The cold is welcomed, Just does not look right up here driving by lakes with no ice on them entering Jan, Tough to ice fish.....................lol

 

Jan. 1 opener looks iffy, but by Saturday Flying Pond ought to have 6"+, and mainly black ice - plenty safe and fewer turns on the hand auger.  (Punching thru 27" last March got old fast.)

 

Maybe reach for -40 at Estcourt and Big Black next week?

[dryslot]

Jan. 1 opener looks iffy, but by Saturday Flying Pond ought to have 6"+, and mainly black ice - plenty safe and fewer turns on the hand auger.  (Punching thru 27" last March got old fast.)

 

Maybe reach for -40 at Estcourt and Big Black next week?

 

That is very doable i think, This cold before any snow makes for good solid black ice which can support more weight at lower thicknesses, Definitely a good thing, And needed

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

I don't know the context, but my nanna was watching one of those judge Judy type shows and as I walked by the judge said, "who would have thought a case about a toilet would involve the polar vortex."

[CoastalWx]

Little mini fropa went through an hour or so ago.Was rising steadily now stuck at 26.

[Brian5671]

12z GFS is hideous for snow chances next 7-10 days (unless the cutter ends up different, but after that looks pretty dry)

[Ginx snewx]

Little mini fropa went through an hour or so ago.Was rising steadily now stuck at 26.

Definite winter feel today even down here in torch ville SECT only 28 at noon, Jerrys AONN FTL

[CoastalWx]

12z GFS is hideous for snow chances next 7-10 days (unless the cutter ends up different, but after that looks pretty dry)

Probably won't snow again.

[dryslot]

Definite winter feel today even down here in torch ville SECT only 28 at noon, Jerrys AONN FTL

18 and i like it here

[forkyfork]

save images of today's 12z GFS for comfort when it's 50 and raining sunday afternoon

[Ginx snewx]

GFS has some similarities to the 12/16/07 setup, might be just further north but like the bridging banana high

[forkyfork]

Hard song to parody because the original is so tightly woven in enigma, but what the heck
(and I even reduced the length by 1/4th or so    )

A long long time ago . . .
I can still remember
How snowstorms use to make me smile
And I didn’t consider it a boast
To forecast HECS for the whole east coast.
And maybe we’d be happy for a while

But December hasn’t made me shiver.
And not one model will deliver
Any sign of cold
This damn blow torch has got old

I don’t know if I should cry
or move right on to suicide
but something turned empty deep inside
The day that winter died

So oh oh I miss my snow
Took my computer to the Euro
But its on crack like a ho
And Chuck and KA were drinking whiskey and rye
Singing we told you winter was gonna die
We told you winter was gonna die

Did you write the Kocin tome
When snow filled your yard and burried your home
If Henry at Accuwx tells you so
Do you believe in the 50/50 low
That holds the cold and wont let go
And can you teach the Pacific jet to go real slow

Now HM knows the weenies have grown tired of him
From the crap they say in their PM’s
He’s clean and off the smack
But they might make him go back

I was a lonely weenie and I’d done been tagged
The mods at eastern said I was a nag
But they can put me in a bag
Now that the winter’s died

I started singing
oh oh I miss my snow
Took my computer to the Euro
But its on crack like a ho
And Chuck and KA were drinking whiskey and rye
Singing we told you winter was gonna die
We told you winter was gonna die

Been ten years since the Bliz of 96
and weenie nation needs a fix
storms like there used to be
When Kocin went on TWC
And out in the storm went Jim Cantore
And they spoke right to you and me

But now Kocin has been let go
And they cover storm stories instead of snow
The old days were adjourned
Doubt they’ll ever return
DT decided he had to go
Richmond’s too warm for Midlo to make snow
And Ji canceled winther thru two oh two oh
The day that Winter died.

I started singing
oh oh I miss my snow
Took my computer to the Euro
But its on crack like a ho
And Chuck and KA were drinking whiskey and rye
Singing we told you winter was gonna die
We told you winter was gonna die

Helter skelter in a blowtorch swelter.
Chuck updates from inside a fallout shelter,
Eight degrees above normal and climbing fast.
Jerry’s squirrels grew lean in the tall grass.
His Canadian snow maps relics of the past
While the whole damn globe was warming fast.

Larry Cosgrove sent his best regards
And an inch of ice for your front yard.
We put on skates and hoped to dance
Oh, but we never got the chance!
Cause Tipster said it wasn’t so
At least that’s what I think, its hard to know.
But the cold didn’t stay in place
And no tears froze on Raliegh’s face

I started singing
oh oh I miss my snow
Took my computer to the Euro
But its on crack like a ho
And Chuck and KA were drinking whiskey and rye
Singing we told you winter was gonna die
We told you winter was gonna die

Oh, and there we were in the funeral room,
weenie nation deep in gloom
With no cold air to find again.
So come on: Jack O be nasty, Jack O be bad!
The warmnistas stole the fun we coulda had
Cause fire is the devil’s only friend.

So JB tried to build up hope
But Joe Lunberg said stop smoking dope
Winter’s ended before it even begun
And Joel Myers don’t give refunds.
And as the blowtorch raged into the night
We did in Chuck in a satanic rite,
I saw VAWxman laughing in delight
The day that winter died

He was singing
No no you can't have any snow
Took my computer to the Euro
But its on crack like a ho
And Chuck and KA were drinking whiskey and rye
Singing we told you winter was gonna die
We told you winter was gonna die

[dryslot]

GFS has some similarities to the 12/16/07 setup, might be just further north but like the bridging banana high

 

That one yielded 7.5" here, Would gladly take that again

[Ginx snewx]

NNE should get a nice high ratio snow out of that impulse from Canada,Thursday Friday some good dynamics with that

[dryslot]

NNE should get a nice high ratio snow out of that impulse from Canada,Thursday Friday some good dynamics with that

 

Mtns and foothills areas should cash

[Ginx snewx]

That one yielded 7.5" here, Would gladly take that again

Have to think you are in a great spot , some serious deep cold seems to be a signal for you , nice antecedent as Jerry would say. Like I told you last night I may have to wait a bit for a total snow storm but we all should be in the game soon.

[Ginx snewx]

Mtns and foothills areas should cash

nice refresher for the ski areas, that with making mountains of snow in the cold and then a solid dumper should be top notch skiing if you don"t mind the cold. As long as the wind stays down cold is easy to take.

[dryslot]

Have to think you are in a great spot , some serious deep cold seems to be a signal for you , nice antecedent as Jerry would say. Like I told you last night I may have to wait a bit for a total snow storm but we all should be in the game soon.

 

Yeah, The trends has certainly been on the positive side for here for at the min some front end snow before a possible changeover right now

[dryslot]

nice refresher for the ski areas, that with making mountains of snow in the cold and then a solid dumper should be top notch skiing if you don"t mind the cold. As long as the wind stays down cold is easy to take.

 

All the ski areas should be blowing hard right now, Adding some nat on top is bonus for you guys that like to ski, Things break right, It should get me on the trails up here with min trek NW to pick up the pack

[forkyfork]

I didn't melt at all. There is nothing more confusing to the average person me than seeing some graph or chart that says there's a 30% chance of 8 inches of snow a 25% chance of 10 inches..a 90% chance of >1  etc..they  I don't understand that . They I want to see a range..2-4 /3-6 etc.. it's always been that way..and again is why we don't I choose not to see this in the public sector..and if you do, it's quickly changed back to the old way when I do, I quickly dismiss it