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2014/15 Winter Banter and General Observations


Baroclinic Zone

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The time for concern will be if the Saturday storm ends up missing us to the south. Then it's time to start slashing snowfall forecasts

Or cuts and ends up mostly rain.....but I still wouldn't worry at that point because I don't expect much out of that one......I won't be alarmed unless we get shutout between now and the 15th. 

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It was a good read but using the gfs op run to make your point of a 10 day forecast seems a bit nuts. I like the fact that epstein has found a niche for himself. I remember him on the air as the weekend backup and he was awful.

Yeah I thought the same. He's very agenda driven and since he forecast a mild, low snow winter it backs him. Guess he didn't want to post this

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Or cuts and ends up mostly rain.....but I still wouldn't worry at that point because I don't expect much out of that one......I won't be alarmed unless we get shutout between now and the 15th.

With a 1040 high nearby next week. This thing has no chance of cutting. There is a decent chance it misses CNE on north though
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With a 1040 high nearby next week. This thing has no chance of cutting. There is a decent chance it misses CNE on north though

 

Unless the high gets stuck out in the western Canadian praries with different timing in the ejection of the southwest energy.

 

Saying it has no chance of cutting 6-7 days out in this pattern is just nonsensical.

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0 of those years finished above average at ORH.

 

The funny part is I'm not that concerned by it either given the pattern going forward...that tune may change though by mid-January. There were some other years that barely missed that list...most notably 1965 and 1957...both which ended up above average at ORH after catastrophic Decembers. 1957-1958 ended with 97.5" despite having a seasonal total of 2.2 inches on January 7th.

in 2010 it wasnt a great year until feb came around. unofficial reports of over 60 inches of snow in some areas of north jersey for feb alone ( which would be a record ).  by me i had near 50  for the month of feb.

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Unless the high gets stuck out in the western Canadian praries with different timing in the ejection of the southwest energy.

Saying it has no chance of cutting 6-7 days out in this pattern is just nonsensical.

Well for stated reason. I think a warm cutter is off the table niw. And if one wants to find something to worry about its more likely a glancing blow or miss to south. Agsin, only if one was being negative or wants to worry 5-6 days out
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in 2010 it wasnt a great year until feb came around. unofficial reports of over 60 inches of snow in some areas of north jersey for feb alone ( which would be a record ).  by me i had near 50  for the month of feb.

 

 

Yeah it happens. I think there were areas in NW NJ, NE PA and interior SE NY that basically whiffed almost entirely the 12/19/09 KU event...they had pretty low totals through the end of January.

 

The common denominator in most of those big late rally winters was that they were El Ninos or close to El Nino like 2012-2013 was. Hopefully this year follows that path, but no guarantees.

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I made a post in the Jan thread for those who have questions on why they were moved. (including my own posts)

 

We're trying to avoid the same dynamic as the December thread...we really want that thread to be a technical discussion about the pattern. A place people can go to read some good solid analysis.

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Yup. 

I'd be surprised if this year didn't recover.

By random chance, I was in the NYC area for the Lindsay storm that year which I believe was 2/9/69. A quick changeover after a few inches was forecast but we got 18-24. Unfortunately, going to school in upstate NY means I missed the mayhem of the 100 hour storm. The following autumn I matriculated in Boston and that storm had a significant influence on the decision...lol.

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I made a post in the Jan thread for those who have questions on why they were moved. (including my own posts)

 

We're trying to avoid the same dynamic as the December thread...we really want that thread to be a technical discussion about the pattern. A place people can go to read some good solid analysis.

Yup, no one is perfect, all Mod's and Admin included.  It's nothing personal.

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By random chance, I was in the NYC area for the Lindsay storm that year which I believe was 2/9/69. A quick changeover after a few inches was forecast but we got 18-24. Unfortunately, going to school in upstate NY means I missed the mayhem of the 100 hour storm. The following autumn I matriculated in Boston and that storm had a significant influence on the decision...lol.

 

For a long time, Feb 1969 was Boston's snowiest month at 41.3"...it was broken eventually by February 2003 at 41.6" and then again just two years later with 43.3" in January 2005.

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For a long time, Feb 1969 was Boston's snowiest month at 41.3"...it was broken eventually by February 2003 at 41.6" and then again just two years later with 43.3" in January 2005.

2005 was an amazing month notwithstanding Logan's lowball number of 21.5 for the blizzard. Remember during the warm pattern the first half of January we got something like 6-8 from a system we had no business getting snow from. Then immediately before and after the blizzard there were 4-8 and 6-10 dumps from clipper type systems.

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Yeah it happens. I think there were areas in NW NJ, NE PA and interior SE NY that basically whiffed almost entirely the 12/19/09 KU event...they had pretty low totals through the end of January.

 

The common denominator in most of those big late rally winters was that they were El Ninos or close to El Nino like 2012-2013 was. Hopefully this year follows that path, but no guarantees.

6.5 in that 12/19 storm here.  a few small storms after but not much until feb

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