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2014/15 Winter Banter and General Observations

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Haha you know Jimmy gets much more leeway than someone who would post about winter torches as much as he talks about low probability threats. Though someone who posts about winter torches incessantly may also be a troll.

Hey dude, you know I love cold and snow and winter. I've centered my life around it, literally. Its why I live where I live and do what I do. But I just like talking about all possibilities and looking at the models objectively...and I like reading about all possible solutions, too, even if they aren't favorable. I get that most of us really don't want to come to this forum to read about anything other than how it could get cold and how it could snow... so its a balancing act. Get a couple pages talking about how it may rain or get warm and its termed "unreadable"...a couple pages talking about cold or snow and its business as usual, lol.

the unreadable stuff is people saying winter is ovah etc. When the pattern was bad we knew it but it's a new pattern, could break good at least we down south can join the party. Congrats on the 12-18
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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

The pv consolidated at the end of the run drifting east..if the Pac firehouse continues with no PNA or blocking it would be warm mid-month..

Ncep has the mjo going into phase 5/6 that is wArm for us...

 

 

The PV was going SSE at the end of the run...

 

At any rate, I disagree with that analysis. It doesn't really matter anyway since I tend to look at the ensembles at day 10 and beyond and not an OP run.

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Cold Miser

Cold Miser

Posted
Posted

Join the rest of the world and get on Twitter dude.,it's the best way to get up to date info about anything you want. It's incredible

No.  I did it for a while and it was utterly useless for me.

 

Why be a tool coming out bragging how great something is and not sharing it. 

It's like a 5 year old saying, "I've got something and you can't see it.  na na na na."

 

I hate when people do that sh*t.

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Absolute Humidity

Absolute Humidity

Posted
Posted

This is not aimed at any of the posters mentioned in the above post, which is why they have been deleted... but if you post something that isn't necessarily pro-snow or cold on here, you better well have a good backup because that will be challenged or rebutted.  Even something as simple as posting a verbatim model run, with no emotion involved...just as simple as "The ECMWF is showing a cutter at day X on the new run" will certainly be met with some sort of resistence.  However, when anyone posts something pro-snow or pro-cold, you usually don't need much reasoning at all.    Its the posts that even imply something other than cold or snow that get met with the "WTF are you talking about?" or "huh?" type responses.

 

We all do it at times, but if you think something may be heading in a not favorable direction, you better have some damn good reasoning for posting it, haha.

It's coming
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EasternLI

EasternLI

Posted
Posted

The pv consolidated at the end of the run drifting east..if the Pac firehouse continues with no PNA or blocking it would be warm mid-month..

Ncep has the mjo going into phase 5/6 that is wArm for us...

 

Sorry to barge in here like this,

I agree with you about phase 5 being warm dude. Phase 6 though..........?

 

post-4973-0-77760000-1419817377_thumb.gi

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

No. I did it for a while and it was utterly useless for me.

Why be a tool coming out bragging how great something is and not sharing it.

It's like a 5 year old saying, "I've got something and you can't see it. na na na na."

I hate when people do that sh*t.

in Kevin's defense it was an all day long meltdown, too much to copy
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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

the unreadable stuff is people saying winter is ovah etc. When the pattern was bad we knew it but it's a new pattern, could break good at least we down south can join the party. Congrats on the 12-18

 

I'm just playing devils advocate on the cold vs warm discussion...which I'm finding I have a devils advocate fetish for whatever reason, lol.

 

I think the pattern is going to be solid going forward.  We'll all make out...may not be epic but definitely serviceable.  I do think we run the risk of a cutter (and before Blizz responds, I just mean a storm tracks west of us, not 60 degree dews and +TSRA), and until we get a -NAO to slow the flow down the events may be capped in the light to moderate range... but we should be able to nickle and dime (maybe a quarter but no silver dollar events haha) stuff fairly regularly with the pace of shortwaves coming across the nation.  It will be better for the masses than December. 

 

In fact, December here I think was around normal snow for the mountains as it really slowed down to next to nothing after the big cut-off storm.  BTV was much above, but with the more snowless second half of December, the mountains with much higher averages came back to normal.  We actually have about the same amount of snow as last year at this time.  But last year all four wheels came off in January, this year looks the opposite.

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TauntonBlizzard2013

TauntonBlizzard2013

Posted
Posted

I think the problem with some of the warm weather winter people is the posts tend to go. "Its going to be warm because the pattern hasn't changed". We know this to be false at this time.

Its also kind or a combination of woe is me attitude, doomsday winter weather fail scenarios, and general reverse psychology voodoo nonsense.

All people touting warm weather scenarios aren't necessarily winter weather haters. Thats why I think it can get old

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

What did the 11-15 Euro Ens show for EPO region

 

 

Still negative but not nearly as much...the ridge is dampened but still there. However, the PNA starts trendng much more positive during this time (esp toward D15) which would increase our chances at a larger coastal storm if the pattern verified.

 

We'll see how that trends as we get closer.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Still negative but not nearly as much...the ridge is dampened but still there. However, the PNA starts trendng much more positive during this time (esp toward D15) which would increase our chances at a larger coastal storm if the pattern verified.

We'll see how that trends as we get closer.

sounds delicious
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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
Posted

No I've seen the charts it was legit but it's likely with the urbanization today they wouldn't sniff that, they need a very specific setup to go below zero, a snow pack and a due north gusty wind to ensure the heat island is mitigated they cannot radiate to get below zero so calm doesn't cut it

Manhattan has been highly urbanized dating back to and beyond the 1930s.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

The forcing is progged to stay in the -EPO zones for a bit but slowly drift east. It's why the euro ensembles try and build a ridge off the west coast as mentioned a few times. This is now almost all MJO as per Mike Vs products , the CCKW component of it is weakening. Not that is not the end all be all by any means, but IMHO it's also why I don't think the sky is falling like some do.

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Allsnow

Allsnow

Posted
Posted

I love the people using MJO dynamical mods as verbatim porn to dry hump.

Secondly, alcohol and Prozac are a bad combo and it's on display tonight.

But it's clearly driving the pattern...we need to hope we get into phase 7 to knock down the se ridge.... Roundy and Mikes MJO plots looke like they have phase 7/8 by jan 11th, while the ncep ones show it at phase 5/6. Then it comes down to if the wave holds or collapses into COD and emerges into IO again...........

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

But it's clearly driving the pattern...we need to hope we get into phase 7 to knock down the se ridge.... Roundy and Mikes MJO plots looke like they have phase 7/8 by jan 11th, while the ncep ones show it at phase 5/6. Then it comes down to if the wave holds or collapses into COD and emerges into IO again...........

I like to look at the VP 200mb stuff. It's nowhere near the IO trough at least the 15 th. If you believe the progs, the forcing expands and moves eastward slightly. Probably argues for that PNA ridge some models have, but perhaps a stronger pacific jet too. Given the nuances with the MJO, I'm not sweating it at the moment. I'll worry about the next 2-3 weeks first.

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