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2014/15 Winter Banter and General Observations


Baroclinic Zone

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I don't post much but I do watch and try to learn this stuff. And it's no secret I don't like snow, winter and basically survive the next 3 months counting down to April 1st.

But, seems to me that in order to get you guys the snow you crave the QBO needs to relax some and the MJO needs to hurry and get thru 4 and 5. AO and NAO aren't favorable either. Most probably don't like it, but persistence is probably the best forecast method at this point. We could get a few inches here and there, maybe, but consistent, widespread, plowable snow in the next 2-3 weeks doesn't seem to be in the cards. Late January and February is the snow maker.

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I don't post much but I do watch and try to learn this stuff. And it's no secret I don't like snow, winter and basically survive the next 3 months counting down to April 1st.

But, seems to me that in order to get you guys the snow you crave the QBO needs to relax some and the MJO needs to hurry and get thru 4 and 5. AO and NAO aren't favorable either. Most probably don't like it, but persistence is probably the best forecast method at this point. We could get a few inches here and there, maybe, but consistent, widespread, plowable snow in the next 2-3 weeks doesn't seem to be in the cards. Late January and February is the snow maker.

 

 

I don't see anything concrete to really make this call. Using persistence in a completely different pattern than we just had for most of December is asking to get burnt in the forecast world.

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Persistence works in the tropics . It won't get you far at 42N.

Persistence works in the tropics . It won't get you far at 42N.

Well you guys have really done a bang up job so far!! Lol

Gonna snow soon, you just wait. 10 more days, 5 more days. It'll change, just wait.

Sure it will. A broke clock is right twice a day.

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Well you guys have really done a bang up job so far!! Lol

Go a snow soon, you just wait. 10 more days, 5 more days. It'll change, just wait.

Sure it will. A broke clock is right twice a day.

 

A broke clock can't afford to be so sloppy with such remarks.

 

The folks here have done as good as job as one could hope in assessing the potential of the patterns as we've seen them come and go. By no means did anyone of repute guarantee snow herein that I recall.

 

But then again, I'm not pulling anything from my rectum at the moment and then firing back when rightly dismissed, rather than defending my own gargled refuse, so it's not really a detail on which I've kept close watch.

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Steve, I'll respond in here so as to not clutter up the discussion thread. A "wut" response is not an explanation. Sure you may have stated your thoughts somewhere else but that type of response is not what we are looking for and will get removed. We let the December thread slide at the end since many here are upset over the lack of snow in this month but we are nearing a new month and are really stepping up our moderation efforts and won't be hesitant to remove posts we feel are off topic, trolling, or just plain nonsense.

wut? Its a question, like wut the fook.
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We are going to do our best to delete any post in that thread that doesn't include reasonable model analysis or a science/meteorology based post. This thread can be a free-for-all but that thread needs to be more science based. The last couple "analysis" threads have turned into absolute debacles.

I have no problem handing out warnings for people who stray OT in those threads if we can't self-police it a lot better. I think people would be shocked if they saw the number of posts that mods delete or move.

just remember that your self, you guys act like you are not as guilty at times.
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do you feel it was not an accurate post based on what he saw in the model? If so, explain why and go from there. Step up the discourse.

meh, it's ovah, don't really care but notice how pros get a pass when they say weenie things. Yea the constant reference to weenie by some pros is old,they should police their profession as there is a some weenie meteorology going on.
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meh, it's ovah, don't really care but notice how pros get a pass when they say weenie things. Yea the constant reference to weenie by some pros is old,they should police their profession as there is a some weenie meteorology going on.

 

It's really not that hard. We're asking everyone to be better. We're going to be better at moving/deleting posts and trying to keep the threads on topic and we ask the same for all the members. In the end it's a good thing for the subforum and the board. 

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Ryan gets away saying hopefully the weenies understand of it doesn't snow in a science thread. But my retort hopefully the pro's do too gets deleted. Yea no hypocrisy.

 

Yes, and unlike your post there was information in it. What's the problem? We've had this discussion a million times that a pattern change isn't a bust if it doesn't snow in someone's backyard. 

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It's really not that hard. We're asking everyone to be better. We're going to be better at moving/deleting posts and trying to keep the threads on topic and we ask the same for all the members. In the end it's a good thing for the subforum and the board.

you should challenge your colleagues more and educate more in science threads and leave the weenie comments out. Soft targets, let's see some real discussion instead of rote model reading. Now that would be a science.
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Yes, and unlike your post there was information in it. What's the problem? We've had this discussion a million times that a pattern change isn't a bust if it doesn't snow in someone's backyard.

that part of your post with the reference to weenies was unscientific, unnecessary and flaming. You guys want to have it your way, let's do it and I will be there to call you out too.
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you should challenge your colleagues more and educate more in science threads and leave the weenie comments out. Soft targets, let's see some real discussion instead of rote model reading. Now that would be a science.

 

OK and who is doing this? You, Kevin, and some others seem to take people's tweets and posts personally - like mets are out to say you're getting warmth and no snow at all times. It's a discussion thread - if people have model analysis or scientific thoughts on a pattern they can post them. Sometimes reality hurts - not everything can be Leon, Westerly Sound Effect Snow, or a 78 blizzard.

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OK and who is doing this? You, Kevin, and some others seem to take people's tweets and posts personally - like mets are out to say you're getting warmth and no snow at all times. It's a discussion thread - if people have model analysis or scientific thoughts on a pattern they can post them. Sometimes reality hurts - not everything can be Leon, Westerly Sound Effect Snow, or a 78 blizzard.

Why do you constantly have to bring my name up?

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